SPX Pauses as Oil Pulls Back...VIX Falls, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA Lead on Positive EPS...EBAY Sinks...

One of ten sectors moved higher on Thursday …XLV, XLF and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLI was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.06 to close at 50.61.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,724 to 1,258 on the NYSE and led 1,479 to 1,274 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +1

Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +7

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10

Monday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5

SPY down .40 at 213.88 on 73.6 million shares, 27% below average volume

VIX down .66 at 13.75

TLT up .14 at 133.11…on 6.0 million shares, 27% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

QQQ -0.12%, SPY -0.19%, DIA -0.25%, IWM -0.30%,

SPX/SPY opened lower and sold off early on light volume, but rallied to close above daily lows.  VIX closed lower and did NOT confirm Thursday’s pullback. 

AXP +5.53, +9.03% leads SPX/Dow and SNA, MAT, WBA, URI and BK have strong positive earnings reactions.  EBAY -3.50, -10.76% falls on weak guidance.

SPX Leaders: AXP, SNA, MAT, WBA, TWX, URI, BK, FTI, DHR, TXT, MOS, VAR, CF, ENDP, CHK, APH, ADI, ALK, FITB, QCOM, KMI, COG, UAL, HAS and STX

Institutional activity continues to indicate that last quarter’s trend on stock selectivity based on quarterly results as opposed to industry or sector rotation is a primary driver of price action.

So far the real determinate to market movement this week is the institutional reaction to earnings announcements. 

After the close:

MSFT +3.07, +5.34% beat on eps of 0.76 vs. 0.68 estimate.

PYPL +1.67, +4.15% inline eps, beat revenues of 2.58 vs. 2.44 estimate.

MXIM +0.49, +1.25% beat on eps of 0.48 vs. 0.47 estimate.

Earnings Announcements

Monday - BAC, HAS, NFLX, IBM, UAL

Tuesday – GS, HOG, JNJ, UNH, ISRG, INTC, LLTC,

Wednesday – HAL, MS, STX, USB, AXP, URI, CTXS, EBAY, LRCX, MAT, TSCO, XLNX, STLD

Thursday – ALK, BK, NUE, SNA, TRV, AAL, WBA, MSFT, MXIM, PYPL,

Friday – GE, HON, MCD, MCO, STI, SWN

EPS Positive Reactions

AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions

EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions

AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: ULTA, WB, AAPL, AMZN, SWKS, WDC, FL, CSX, ETFC, LVS, HA

Bull Flag Bounces include:  NXPI, QCOM, LITE, CCL, DVN, RCL

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SLCA, X, AKS, STI, ZION, MS, C, JPM, USB, CHK, DAL, DO, RIG, APA, NFX, ADBE, CTRP, NCLH, SCHW, ADSK, HAS, MLM, JBLU, SE, SOXL, NVDA, CAVM, WHR, WRK

Horizontal Breakouts include: UAL, STLD, BAC, DISH

New Highs include: NFLX, ALK, DISH, DPZ, CE, SCHN, GS, NTES, LUV, EXPE, CMA, GOOG, HAL, SAVE, AKAM, AAL, FSLR

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 33, bullish. 

49 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Thursday.

42 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 6

ADI, ATVI, JD, MAT, VIAB, WBA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

EBAY, MAR, MSFT, TRIP, TSLA, WFM

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up