Friday, September 23, 2016

SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA Close Lower on Friday...Finish Higher for the Week...VIX Sinks for the Week...

Just one of ten sectors moved higher on FridayXLRE, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLE was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.53 to close at 44.59.

For the week ended September 24 all ten sectors moved higher,
XLRE +4.42%, XLU +3.41%, XLI +1.96%, XLY +1.48%, XLV +1.39%,
SPY +1.23%,
Lagging sectors XLB +1.18%, XLF +1.04%, XLP +1.04%, XLK +0.59%, XLE +0.28%,
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XLRE Leaders: WY, AIV, VTR, UDR, PLD, DLR, HCP O, AVB, CCI, VNO, IRM.
XLU Leaders:  AES, CNP, AEE
XLI Leaders:  FDX, DAL, PWR, COL
XLY Leaders:  FOSL, RCL, DISCA, KORS, LB 
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XLF turned positive YTD this week and XLRE was elevated to sector status making ten of ten sector ETFs positive YTD after two weeks of one negative sector YTD.

YTD 184
Leading Sectors: XLU +17.70%, XLE +12.14%, XLK +10.88%, XLB +8.96%, XLI +8.89%, XLRE +5.98%,
SPY +5.94%,
Lagging Sectors: XLP +5.64%, XLY +1.93%, XLV +1.50%, XLF +0.15%,

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,055 to 969on the NYSE and led 1,745 to 1,047 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +10
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +10
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +5

SPY down 1.19 at 215.99 on 73.6 million shares, 15% below average volume
VIX up .27 at 12.29
TLT down .13 at 136.82…on 5.2 million shares, 19% below average volume


Technical Commentary:
SPY -0.63%, QQQ -0.64%, DIA -0.68%, IWM -0.71%,

The SPX/SPY pulled back on Friday after two strong rally days following the FOMC announcement on WednesdayThe pullback was a 23% retracement from the low on September 12.  Trend is still up.

TWTR +3.99, +21.2% gapped through horizontal resistance as new takeover rumors surfaced once again.

Leading NDX stocks on Friday included ENDP, QVCA, JD, LBTYA, DISCA, EA, EXPE, AAL and TRIP.

CCL reports earnings before the open Monday September 26Watch for potential opportunity in CCL, RCL or NCLH Monday morning.


EPS Positive Reactions

RHT, FDX, ADBE


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: INTC, PYPL, VLO, UAL, CHK, URBN, BAC, GS, BABA, NTES, CSX, AAPL, GT, AMAT, SWKS,

Bull Flag Bounces include: LVS, ZION, RL,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: IWM, ETFC, FOSL, SYMC, APA, SWKS, BIDU, EBAY, JD, WBA, ATVI, EA, FB, GILD, NTAP, QCOM, TXN, WDC, NVDA, PCLN, ROST,  CHTR, MU, STX, REGN, CTRP, ULTA, ISRG, YHOO, V, KSS, BURL, FL, MS, SINA, WRK, SCHW, X, NUE, STLD, ATI, SCHN, JPM, WMB, SE, STT, UAL, HRS, MSI,

Horizontal Breakout include:
IWM, RCL, ADI, AMZN, CAVM, FL, DVA, AKS,


New Highs include: CSX, AMZN, NVDA, BABA, QQQ, IWM, LITE, MA, ADSK, CMCSA, LMCA, ATVI, PCLN, ISRG

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Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  FOSL, FDX, RCL, WY, AIV, RHT, FCX, NUE, FSLR, VTR, UDR, PLD, JNPR, DLR, AES, HCP, CSRA, KORS, O, OKE, DAL, AVB, CCI, ALB, VNO, PWR, IRM, TMO, COG, CNP, AEE, COL, AMT, LB, FBHS, KIM, OI, FE, XEL, ED, EQT, HCN, PRGO, LNT, SCG, MLM, MAS, PKI, HRL, TSN, NI, A, PNW, KMB, ESS, BA, +4, 61
SPX losers:  CHK, WYNN, CF, KMX, CRM, -4, 5

NDX gainers:  ENDP, ADBE, INCY, QVCA, DISCA, ADSK, LBTYA, CTRP, LMCA, NCLH, +4, 13
NDX losers:  VIAB, NFLX, ALXN -4, 1

YTD: 184
SPX Leaders:  CHD, NEM, OKE, SWN, SE, FCX, URBN, RRC, EW, HPE, (331, +13 > 10p 228, +27)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, RCL, HRB, GCI, DO, FOSL, DAL

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, LLTC, NTES, NTAP, ISRG, YHOO, TXN, ULTA, TXN, (57, +5, >10p 40, +4)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, NCLH, SRCL, ALXN, VRTX, TRIP, QVCA, LMCA, REGN, MYL

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, MRK, WMT, MMM, JNJ, CSCO, VZ, IBM, PG, (21, +1, >10p 11, +1)
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, BA, GS, AXP, GE, HD, MCD, KO


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 54, bullish

27 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

54 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ENDP, TRIP

Moving Below 30 DMA = 11
ADP, ALXN, FISV, LRCX, LVNTA, MSLZ, MSFT, PAYX, TXN, XLNX, YHOO 

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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