Friday, September 9, 2016

SPY Breaks Support, Triggers Stops...Posture Turns Defensive Again...VIX Jumps...

All nine sectors moved lower and on FridayXLF, XLV and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.61 to close at 45.71.

For the week ended September 9,
XLE +0.90%, XLV -1.57%, XLF -2.16%,
SPY -2.33%,
Lagging sectors XLU -2.36%, XLK -2.51%, XLY -3.03%, XLI -3.07%, XLB -3.68%, XLP -3.89%,

XLV turned negative YTD this week leaving eight of nine sectors YTD positive after all nine sectors being YTD positive for the past four weeks.

YTD 174
Leading Sectors: XLE +15.55%, XLU +11.97%, XLB +9.26%, XLK +7.77%, XLI +7.75%,
SPY +4.62%,
Lagging Sectors: XLP +4.36%, XLF +0.88%, XLY +0.34%, XLV -0.72%,


Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,952 to 172 on the NYSE and led 2,465 to 395 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +5
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led, +6
Monday – Labor Day Holiday

SPY down 5.23 at 213.28 on 221.5 million shares, 230% above average volume
VIX up 4.99 at 17.50
TLT down 2.27 at 135.52…on 13.3 million shares, 97% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -2.12%, SPY -2.39%, QQQ -2.52%, IWM -3.12%,

SPY broke support on Friday and moved below the low of its $3.57 trading range for of the past 24 days.    

Airline stocks DAL UAL AAL LUV and ALK pulled back into a potential bull flag pattern after two strong days to the updside.



If you had moved stops up as we have suggested the past few weeks, there is a high probability that you were stopped out on Friday.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. 

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: 









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Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  SE, APA, CHK, COG, WYNN, TSO, WMB, SWN, NBL, CMG, RRC, MUR, EOG, +4, 16
SPX losers:  QRVO, MOS, GIS, KMX, FBHS, IR, MJN, ALLE, CBG, CMI, CAG, RAI, HST, CLS, LOW, MCHP, SEE, SYY, PNR, K, HLS, WHR, ALB, SIG, GPC, MAS, VTR, TDC, IRM, PBI, HES, NWL, ETN, HAR, HPE, PPG, VMC, RCL, EMN, FMC, KMC, HS, TSN, WYN, CL, BF/B, FLR, AA, GM, MLM, FLS, CHD, DHR, DOW, VXP, MO, TMO, URI, SLG, DPS, MHK, PX, BBY, WY, UDR, CPB, HOG, FFIV, YM, LEG, GCI, NKE, PLD, AYI, CAN, KMB, A, NUE, XYL, LYB, ITW, DHI, SYK, COL, CCL, AIV, XRAY, ECL, PEG, AMT, WRK, CTAS, SHW, DO, JWN, TEL, NWSA, PM, VNO, ADM, COH, GGP, JEC, PH, SNA, TIF, PPL  -4, 139

NDX gainers:  WDC, STX, AAL, LMCA, JD, +4, 3
NDX losers:  TSCO, SWKS, QVCA, CTRP, NXPI, AVGO, WFM, MXIM, VIAB, FAST, BBBY, MAT, TMUS, ADI, BIIB, CTSH, MAR, PCAR, DISCA, AKAM, NVDA, SBAC, MDLZ, COST, QCOM, LN, CTXS, TXN, EA, AAPL, ADP, MNST, KHC, ADBE, DISH, , -4, 37,


YTD: 174
SPX Leaders:  CHD, NEM, SWN, OKE, SE, RRC, CHK, URBN, FCX, KMI (315, -38 > 10p 200, -41)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, RCL, HRB, GCI, DO, FOSL, DAL

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, LLTC, NTAP, ULTA, YHOO, ISRG, TXN, FB, (54, -8, >10p 31, -5)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, NCLH, ALXN, SRCL, REGN, QVCA, TRIP, INCY, MYL

DJI Leaders:  CAT, MRK, MMM, JNJ, WMT, CSCO, UNH, IBM, CVX, VZ, (20, -4, >10p 11, -2)
DJI Losers:  DIS, NKE, BA, GS, AXP, HD, GE, MCD, AAPL, KO


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 67, defensive

3 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

24 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 27
ADBE, ADP, AKAM, AMZN, BBBY, BMRN, CA, CSCO, CSX, DISH, EA, EXPE, GOOG, ILMN, ISRG, KHC, LBTYA, LRCX, MDLZ, NVDA, PAYX, QCOM, ROST, SBAC, SWKS, VRSK, XLNX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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