Friday, June 10, 2016

Pullback Accelerates on Friday...Potential Bull Flag Forming...Dollar Stronger, Oil Weaker...Brexit Concerns Rise Overnight in Europe...

Just one of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLP, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector for the third straight day.  Oil futures fell 1.58 to close at 48.88, after closing above 50 for three straight days.

For the week ended June 10, XLE +1.25%, XLP +1.06%, XLU +0.98%, XLI +0.86%, XLB +0.17%, XLK +0.05%,
SPY -0.10%,
Lagging sectors XLV -0.71%, XLY -0.78%, XLF -1.49%,

YTD 111
Leading Sectors: XLU +16.84%, XLE +11.69%, XLB +9.95%, XLP +7.21%, XLI +6.53%,
SPY +3.04%,
Lagging Sectors: XLK +2.64%, XLY +0.42%, XLV -0.35%, XLF -2.81%, 

                  (click image to enlarge)

XLU, XLE, XLB, XLP, XLI and XLK gain for the week and XLV and XLY were lower.

                  (click image to enlarge)

XLF and interest rates TNX move lower for the week as bonds TLT and volatility VIX rise.

                  (click image to enlarge)


Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,427 to 584 on the NYSE and led 2,018 to 551 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYES, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8


SPY down 2.01 at 210.07 on 113.8 million shares, 44% above average volume
VIX up 2.39 at 17.03
TLT up .65 at 134.78…on 6.9 million shares, 2% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.65%, SPY -0.95%, QQQ -1.13%, IWM -1.36%,

                  (click image to enlarge)


We observed in Thursday's post... "Be on alert for a potential pullback following Monday’s breakout."  The pullback...it happened on Friday.


DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM each pulled back on Friday and are forming a potential bull flag pattern.  Wait for the pullback to complete and bounce.

                  (click image to enlarge)

DIA, SPY and IWM weekly charts reveal a modest pullback on Friday.

Earning’s Announcements:
Positive Reactions:  HRB,
Negative Reactions:


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


______________________

Bull Flag Setups include:  SPY, DIA, IWM, WFM, CAT, AVGO, DD, AMAT, CTXS, STLD, NUE, AKS, DISH, DLTR, EA, ESRX, NVDA, TXN, WDC, STX, UNH, V, PCLN, AMZN, QQQ, SVXY, X, SCHN, SWN, RRC, CVX, MMM, MRK, XOM, CMCSA, INCY, MU, MXIM, MYL, NXPI, PAYX, TMUS, ULTA, VIAB, VRTX,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: NEM, WYNN, IRM, KHC, FISV, KO, DPS, MCD, AAL, MDLZ, MNST

Horizontal Breakout include: PG, VZ, COST, WBA


New Highs include: JNJ, HRB

______________________


Short-term Movers:
SPX gainers:  HRB, RIG, HP, SJM, NOV, FFIV, CHK, DOV, UA, NBL, LUV, CNC, HE, UAL, 4, 14
SPX losers:  NRG, SWN, URBN, BBY, MNK, PSA, AMG, FCX, CMG, IVZ, ABBV, EXR, LM, BEN, KMX, CSRA, TSN, TROW, BAC, -4, 19

NDX gainers:  AAL, WBA, 3, 2
NDX losers:  BIIB, ALXN, BMRN, CTRP, JD, DISCA, VOD, NTES, REGN, VIAB, ENDP, LMCA, LBTYA, NFLX, MU, BIDU, INCY, QVCA, CELG, PYPL, NXPI, TMUS, ADSK, FAST, -3, 24

YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, OKE, RRC, FCX, WYNN, EQT, COG, SE, IRM (322, -10 > 10p 188, +6)
SPX Losers:  PRGO, MPC, LB, CF, SIG, HRB, RCL, TSO, FSLR, ABC

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, ULTA, AMAT, CHTR, DLTR, ISRG, KHC, FISV, PCAR, CA (48, -4, >10p 20)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, STX, JD, REGN, ALXN, VRTX, ILMN, INCY, NCLH

DJI Leaders:  UNH, WMT, XOM, VZ, JNJ, CVX, MMM, CAT, IBM, PFE (19, 0)
DJI Losers:  GS, NKE, BA, DIS, MSFT, INTC, AXP, AAPL, GE, JPM                                                                                                                                    


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 91, bullish.


5 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 14
AMGN, CELG, CTSH, FB, FOXA, LBTYA, LMCA, LVNTA, NFLX, ORLY, PCAR, SIRI, TSLA, YHOO

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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