Friday, June 24, 2016

Brexit Reaction Drives SPX from 2,113 Resistance Area to 2,037 Support Area...Equities, Pound and Cameron Brexit Losers...Bonds, Gold and Volatility Brexit Winners...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on FridayXLU, XLP and XLV were the strongest sectors while XLF was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -2.56 to close at 47.57.


For the week ended June 24, XLU +0.12%, XLE -0.16%, XLP -0.69%, XLV -1.10%, SPY -1.64%,
Lagging sectors XLK -1.79%, XLY -2.28%, XLF -2.34%, XLI -2.42%, XLB -2.50%,

YTD 121
Leading Sectors: XLU +16.94%, XLE +10.71%, XLB +5.99%, XLP +5.71%, XLI +2.58%,
SPY -0.36%,
Lagging Sectors: XLK -1.28%, XLY -2.57%, XLV -3.80%, XLF -7.34%,Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,579 to 492 on the NYSE and led 2,226 to 418 on the NASDAQ.


Friday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3
Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8


SPY down 7.68 at 203.13 on 333.1 million shares, 259% above average volume
VIX up 8.51 at 25.76
TLT up 3.55 at 135.78…on 17.1 million shares, 140% above average volume


Technical Commentary:
DIA -3.36%, IWM -3.66%, SPY -3.64%, QQQ -4.12%,

The big losers on Thursday night and Friday were equities with SP futures dropping to a low of 1,199 overnight before closing on Friday at 2,018.25; the British pound which dropped to a 30 year low over Thursday night before closing at 1.3677; and David Cameron, the British prime minister that called for the non-binding referendum to shore up support in his Conservative party, because he thought stay in the EU would win.  A bold political move that totally backfired.

The winners were volatility VIX +49.33%, gold GLD +4.91%, and bonds TLT +2.68%.  Yes, not everything goes down on a big down day. 

Three NDX stocks as three retailers ORLY, ROST and WFM gained on Friday.  Other NDX retailers DLTR, COST, BBBY and ULTA were lower on Friday but much stronger than the NDX -4.07%.

Thirty-nine SPX stocks rose on Friday including NEM, HRL, ED, O, CMS, DTE, ES, XEL, KR, ORLY, VTR, AWK, SCG, MO, AEP, AZO, RAI, HSY, WEC, PCG, PNW, EIX, CME, RTN, AEE, LLY NI, DG, CLX, DUK, WM, CCI, HCP, TSN, D SO and PSA.  ORLY, ROST and WFM are also in the SPX.


Watch if support holds or not next week.  If support holds that tells us that institutions are using lower price level to accumulate stock much like they did in August, October and February.  If support holds and bounces, we should look for entries according to our rules.

If support does not hold, look for price to drop to the next level of support.


Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.                                                                                                                                 


______________________


YTD:
SPX Leaders:  NEM, OKE, SWN, RRC, FCX, EQT, SE, COG, IRM, MLM (299, -8 > 10p 140, -29)
SPX Losers:  MPC, PRGO, SIG, TSO, CF, HRB, LB, ABC, VLO, FSLR

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, ULTA, AMAT, DLTR, CHTR, ISRG, KHC, FISV, CA, TXN, (35, -9, >10p 10, -5)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, ALXN, REGN, STX, AAL, JD, VRTX, LBTYA, NCLH

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, UNH, XOM, CVX, JNJ, MMM, CAT, IBM, MRK, (16, -1)

DJI Losers:  GS, NKE, AXP, BA, AAPL, MSFT, JPM, DIS, INTC, HD

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 61, time to be defensive.


3 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 49
ADI, ADP, ADSK, AMZN, ATVI, AVGO, BBBY, CA, CHTR, CMCSA, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, CTXS, DISH, EA, EBAY, EXPE, FAST, FISV, FOXA, HSIC, ILMN, INCY, INTU, KHC, LBTYA, LLTC, LVNTA, MAR, MAT, MDLZ, MSFT, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, PCAR, PCLN, QCOM, SBUX, SIRI, SWKS, TMUS, TXN, VIAB, VOD, VRSK, XLNX, YHOO


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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