Oil Rally Accelerates on Friday...Stocks Bounce on Friday, Finish Lower for the Week...

Six of nine sectors moved higher and one was unchanged on Friday …XLE, XLB and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose 2.13 to close at 39.66. 

                         

For the week ended April 8 XLE +2.15%, XLV +1.17% and XLP -0.39%

led SPY -1.17% 

Coincident sectors XLB

Lagging sectors XLK, XLI, XLU, XLY, XLF

YTD

Leading Sectors: XLU +12.87%, XLP +5.78%, XLE +3.4%, XLI +3.21%, XLB +2.53%, XLK +2.47%,

SPY +0.31%,

Leading Sectors: XLY -0.37%, XLV -3.72%, XLF -7.47%

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.08 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.23 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led

Thursday - weakened, decliners led

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led

Monday – weakened, decliners led

SPY up .55 at 204.50 on 95.0 million shares, 1% below average volume

VIX down .80 at 15.36…

TLT down .84 at 132.01…on 5.5 million shares, 22% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

DIA +0.21%, SPY +0.27%, IWM +0.40%, QQQ -0.07%.

SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM continue in a muti-week uptrends, bull flag patterns and are still bull flag setups for potential entry on a bounce next week.

SPY two-week support is 202.40.  This week SPY pulled back -1.96% to its weekly low on Thursday before buyers appeared.

Earnings season unofficially begins next week with AA earnings on Monday after the close.

Monday – AA

Tuesday – FAST, CSX

Wednesday – JPM

Thursday – BLK, DAL, BAC, WFC

Friday- C, RAI, RF, SCHW

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

The broad market one year trend is sideways and the short-term trend is near resistance.  Risk can be balanced with bear call spreads above resistance, VXX short put spreads below support, TLT positions and bearish trades in stocks that are already below support in a down trend.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, SVXY, CCL, RCL, BABA, X, AAPL, CAT, HD, IBM, MSFT, PFE, UNH, WMT, ALXN, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, ATVI, BIIB, BMRN, CMCSA, CTSH, CTXS, DLTR, EBAY, FISV, GOOG, ILMN, INCY, LRCX, NCLH, NVDA, REGN, TMUS, TSLA, TXN, VRTX, YHOO,

Bull Flag Bounces include: KO,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: XLE, CVX, JNJ, KO, MMM, V, CTRP, ESRX, JD, MXIM, NTES, NXPI, SBUX, SWKS

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Short-term Movers:

SPX gainers:  EW, MRO, SWN, NEM, PFE, DVN, RRC, APA, HAL, MPC, HCP, MUR, APC, HES, WMB, OKE, N, ZTS, COG, WYNN, STZ, CXO, XEC, COP, MI, PXD, OXY, SHW, MRK, MCK 3

SPX losers:  GPS, HOG, AGN, URBN, JWN, FSLR, KORS, FOSL, BWA, LM, LB, CME, SIG, FFIV, M, HUM, CF, HRB, ETFC, MOS, FMC, MS, UAL, PVH BBY, SCHW, HAR, RL, WBA, MET, GS,GME, ETN, JEC, COF, CSRA, RHI LNC, DG, MAT, IVZ, FCX, BEN, AES, KSS, WRK, BAC, LUK, HST, CI, HRL, NWSA, C, GT, PBCT, STT, SYF, MCO, HBI, AET, TIF, EMC, F, PRU, FLR, PNC, AMG, FTR, VFC  4

NDX gainers:  VRTX, INCY, TSLA, CELG, CERN, ALXN, BIIB, ULTA, MDLZ, ISRG, GILD, QVCA, VOD, 1.5

NDX losers:  VIAB, WDC, TRIP, WBA, DISH, MAT, TSCO, AKAM, BBBY, EXPE, CTSH, FB, DLTR, NTAP, COST, FAST, ROST, CSCO, BIDU, VRSK, CSX, CA, LVNTA 3

YTD:

SPX Leaders:  NEM, WYNN, RRC, FCX, URBN, COG, EW, EQT, KORS, TSN (281, -30 > 10p 110, -23)

SPX Losers: WMB, RIG, CF, HRB, LNC, MPC, MS, AN, AGN, BAC

NDX Leaders: MAT, FAST, ISRG, AMAT, PCAR, CHTR, FISV, CMCSA, DISCK, YHOO (44, -11)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, VRTX, INCY, WDC, TRIP, REGN, MU, DISH, ALXN, NTES

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, MMM, CAT, KO, IBM, MCD, CVX, UNH, XOM (20, -1)

DJI Losers: GS, AXP, JPM, BA, DIS, INTC, DD, NKE, MSFT, GE

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 87. 

Prepare to become defensive if the MFC green line drops below 80.

57 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

JD, MNST

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

DLTR, EBAY, FB, LVNTA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral