Oil Falls on Friday...Stocks Pause Day Two...Stay Above S1...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday …XLP, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell 1.05 to close at 40.40. 

For the week ended April 15 XLF +3.85%, XLB +3.39%, XLI +2.45%, XLY +2.08%, XLE +1.87%   

led SPY 1.6% 

Lagging sectors XLK, XLV, XLU, XLP

YTD

Leading Sectors: XLU +12.96%, XLB +6.01%, XLI +5.73%, XLE +5.34%, XLP +5.04%, XLK +3.53%,

SPY +1.92%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +1.7%, XLV –2.79%, XLF -3.9%

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1.14 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.004 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led

Thursday - weakened, decliners led

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

Monday – weakened, advancers led on NYSE

SPY down .23 at 207.78 on 75.7 million shares, 16% below average volume

VIX down .10 at 13.62…

TLT up 1.12 at 131.88…on 5.8 million shares, 12% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.25%, SPY -0.11%, DIA -0.16%, QQQ -0.25%.

SPY paused for the second day after breaking out on Wednesday of its April 1 short-term resistance at 207.14.  SPY’s pause again stayed above Wednesday’s S1 level.  SPY short-term price target of 211.19.  SPY does have intermediate-term resistance levels at 208.50 and 209.75.  Wednesday’s breakout suggests that a dividend adjusted new all-time high is achievable.

Our view has been that for the SPX to break out of all-time highs, the financial sector would have to revive and help lead the SPX higher. JPM’s positive earnings reaction may be the catalyst the sector needed to help lift the SPX.  XLF made up half of its YTD loss this week and closed above its five week resistance level.

SPY two-week support is 202.40.  Last week SPY pulled back -1.96% to its weekly low on Thursday of 203.09 before buyers appeared.  SPY is almost $5 above last week’s support with today’s breakout.  The multi-week trend continues to be up.

The broad market one year trend is sideways and the short-term trend is near resistance.  Risk can be balanced with bear call spreads above resistance, VXX short put spreads below support, TLT positions and bearish trades in stocks that are already below support in a down trend.  All according to your rules.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  XLP, CTSH, ATVI, BIIB, CCL, INCY, NCLH, ATVI, BIIB, LRCX, MXIM, YHOO, FCX, NXPI

Bull Flag Bounces include: XLU, HD, TMUS, TSLA

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: QQQ, XLK, XLV, XLY, SVXY, CMCSA, BABA,

PCAR, MSFT, PFE, AMAT, BMRN, EBAY, AAPL, ALXN, AMGN,

Horizontal Breakout include: IWM, CTXS, NVDA, JNJ, 

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Short-term Movers:

SPX gainers:  CHK, SWN, FCX, RF, RIG, C, MUR, MRO, LUK, BWA, DVN, DEY, THC, ZION, BAC, LM, CMI, LNC, MS, FITB, OI, PRU, AMG, WMB, CFG, STI, BLK, GME, NRG, BBY, NAVI, SCHW, UAL, CMA, JPM, COF, PNR, R, AA, NTRS, BK, MET, TROW, GRMN, RRC, MCK, CAT, DLPH, FMC, HBAN, HST, CBG, BEN, COP, STJ, PFG, STT, CSRA, LUV, ETFC, IR, AMP, OKE, UNM, IVZ, AN, GS, MTB, FOSL, KMX, LYB, HES, FLS, DOV, ETN, ROK, MCO, CI, PHM, VAR, BBT, DO, NUE, AFL, ZBH, HAS, MOS, CSX, PBCT, AXP, USB, HAR, CF, KSU, HOG, TMK, GM, TAP, CMG 4

SPX losers:  AGN, MNK, VLO, HRL, JNPR, MKC, NOV, RAI, AVB, EQR, TSN, AIV, CNC, UDR, EXR, CPB, DPS, MO, QRVO, PGR, KR, ESS, HPE, TSO, PSA, MPC, SE, 2

NDX gainers:  JD, CTRP, NFLX, AAL, EXPE, PCAR, AMZN, BIDU, FOXA, EBAY, CSX, PCLN, MAT, NVDA, EA, CHKP, AMAT, ILMN, 3

NDX losers:  STX, ENDP, WDC, VRTS, NTES, MNST, SWKS, FAST, AKAM, NTAP, SRCL, 2

YTD:

SPX Leaders:  NEM, FCX, RRC, SWN, WYNN, URBN, EW, CHK, CMI, KORS (311, +30 > 10p 141, +31)

SPX Losers: WMB, AGN, HRB, MPC, CF, TSO, ADS, RIG, AN, MNK

NDX Leaders: MAT, PCAR, AMAT, ISRG, NVDA, FAST, CHTR, FOXA, ULTA, CMCSA (47, +3)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, VRTX, WDC, STX, INCY, TRIP, REGN, MU, NTES, DISH

DJI Leaders:  CAT, WMT, MMM, VZ, IBM, XOM, UTX, UNH, MCD, CVX (21, +1)

DJI Losers: GS, AXP, BA, INTC, JPM, DIS, NKE, DD, GE

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed up at 91. 

47 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

KHC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

AAL, INTC, QCOM, SWKS, VRTX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up