Thursday, December 31, 2015

2015 in Review: Stock Indexes Fall on the Final Day of Trading...2016 is Coming...Happy New Year...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Thursday, the final trading day of 2015XLE, XLI and XLB were the strongest sectors while XLK was the weakest sector.  

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 1.64 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.81 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday- weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – Christmas Holiday


SPY down 2.06 at 203.87 on 114.4 million shares, 3% above average volume
VIX up 0.92 at 18.21…
TNX down .34 at 22.69…
TLT up .54 at 120.58…on 7.8 million shares, 8% above average volume
XLF down .24 at 23.83…on 48 million shares, 19% above average volume

AAPL down 2.06 at 105.26 on 40.8 million shares, 6% above average volume
FB down 1.56 at 104.66 on 18.3 million shares, 7% below average volume

Technical Commentary:
SPY -1.00%, DIA -1.03%, QQQ –1.24%, IWM -1.25%.

2015 closed out a volatile year with near average volume in SPY, DIA and QQQ as advancers increased on both the NYSE (1,155) and NASDAQ (953) but were still led by decliners.


Oil rose 47 cents to close at 37.07Seventeen of the top 20 SPX gainers on Thursday were Energy sector stocks including: SWN, RRC, WMB, OKE, COG, ESV, DVN, CPGX, KMI, MUR, CHK, NFX, NBL, MRO, CNX, HP and EQT.

Markets are closed on Friday, January 1 in celebration of New Year’s Day.  Have a wonderful and safe 3-day Holiday weekend.


The major index ETFs finished the year including dividends with approximate returns of QQQ +9.75%, SPY +1.28%, DIA -0.32% and IWM -3.90%
                       (click image to enlarge)

This is the same order of strength for these ETFs over the past five years.
                 (click image to enlarge)

Many of the market commentators continue to suggest that the bull market is at its end and a bear market has begun.  Do these five year quarterly charts look like the start of a bear market?
                   (click image to enlarge)


2015 NDX Review
The NDX/QQQ  stocks with the largest 2015 gain were:
                  (click image to enlarge)

The NDX/QQQ  stocks with the largest 2015 loss were:
                  (click image to enlarge)

The NDX/QQQ distribution of 2015 one year returns for the 100 stocks on Dec 31 was as follows with 60 stocks with positive returns, 38 stocks with negative returns and two stocks trading less than one year.

Up > 20% = NFLX, AMZN, CTRP, ATVI, NVDA, INCY, GOOGL, SBUX, EA, EXPE, TMUS, ULTA, AVGO, JD, MNST, FB, REGN, ORLY, ADBE, FISV, NCLH, MDLZ, VRSK (23)

Up 10% to 19.99% = LVNTA, MSFT, MXIM, CTXS, EBAY, SIRI, HSIC, BMRN, PAYX, TRIP, ROST, CTSH, COST, PCLN, WBA, LMCA, NXPI (17)

Up 0% to 9.99% = CHTR, DLTR, XLNX, TSCO, TSLA, GILD, CELG, SWKS, VRTX, INTU, ILMN, CHKP, ISRG, ESRX, ALXN, TXN, AMGN, ADP, ADSK, LRCX (20)

Down -0.01% to -9.99% = BIIB, SRCL, CERN, LLTC, CA, VOD, SBAC, INTC, AAPL, MYL, CMCSA, CSCO, KLAC, ADI (14)

Down > -10% = MU, WDC, VIAB, STX, BBBY, NTAP, YHOO, WFM, QCOM, PCAR, FOXA, AMAT, DISCA, SNDK, DISH, AAL, SYMC, BIDU, AKAM, LBTYA, ENDP, FAST, MAR, MAT (24)

Two stocks PYPL and KHC have been trading for less than one year.


The NDX distribution of returns should convince you that:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”


2015 SPX Review
The strongest SPX sectors for 2015 were XLY and XLV, XLB and XLE were the weakest.
                  (click image to enlarge)

NFLX, AMZN and ATVI also led the SPX in 2015.  The next SPX/SPY stocks with the largest 2015 gains were:
                  (click image to enlarge)

The SPX/SPY stocks with the largest 2015 loss were:
                 (click image to enlarge)


2015 DJIA Review
The DJIA/DIA stocks with the largest 2015 gain were:
                  (click image to enlarge)

The DJIA/DIA stocks with the largest 2015 loss were:
                 (click image to enlarge)



Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 60.

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: CRM, PLAY, SEDG, VXX, YELP, ADSK, COST, SBUX,
Diagonal Breakout: BABA, ETFC, FAS, PANW, SCHW, SINA, STI, SVXY, V, VRSN, ZION, FB, INTC,
Bull Flag: AA, AIG, BXLT, CAH, CCL, CSIQ, DAL, DPS, DRI, FINL, FIVE, FSLR, JASO, KR, KWEB, MPEL, NTES, RCL, RUN, SCTY, SOHU, SONC, SPWR, SUNE, TBT, TSL, W, WUBA, YNDX, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, AVGO, GOOGL, ILMN, JD, LRCX, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, MCD, KMB,
Potential Bullish Divergence: CRUS, JBL, LNKD, NKE, QRVO, SLCA, TPX, AAPL, LLTC, NFLX, SWKS, TXN
Bear Flag: MNST

Moves
H Breakout: TSLA
Bull Flag Bounce: TERP

______________________

8 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Thursday.

48 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
LBTYA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
ADP, CHTR, COST, CTXS, EA, EXPE, FB, INTC, MXIM, NXPI, PAYX, PCLN,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 comment:

Gary said...

Happy New Year Dave!!!