Eight of nine sectors moved lower
on Thursday, the final trading day of 2015…XLE,
XLI and XLB were the strongest sectors while
XLK was the weakest sector.
Breadth
strengthened
as decliners led advancers 1.64 to 1 on
the NYSE and 1.81 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Thursday-
weakened, decliners led
Wednesday
– weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday
– weakened, decliners led
Friday
– Christmas Holiday
SPY down 2.06 at
203.87 on 114.4 million shares, 3% above
average volume
VIX
up 0.92 at
18.21…
TNX down .34 at 22.69…
TLT up .54 at 120.58…on 7.8 million shares,
8% above average
volume
XLF down .24 at 23.83…on
48 million shares, 19% above
average volume
AAPL down
2.06 at 105.26 on 40.8 million shares, 6%
above average volume
FB down 1.56 at 104.66 on 18.3
million shares, 7% below average volume
Technical Commentary:
SPY -1.00%, DIA -1.03%, QQQ
–1.24%, IWM -1.25%.
2015 closed
out a volatile year with near average volume in SPY, DIA and QQQ as advancers increased on both the NYSE (1,155)
and NASDAQ (953)
but were still led by decliners.
Oil rose 47 cents to close at 37.07. Seventeen of
the top 20 SPX gainers on Thursday were Energy sector stocks including: SWN, RRC, WMB, OKE, COG, ESV,
DVN, CPGX, KMI, MUR, CHK, NFX, NBL, MRO, CNX, HP and EQT.
Markets
are closed on Friday, January 1 in celebration of New Year’s Day. Have a wonderful and safe 3-day Holiday
weekend.
The
major index ETFs finished the year including dividends with approximate returns
of QQQ +9.75%,
SPY +1.28%, DIA -0.32% and IWM -3.90%.
This
is the same order of strength for these ETFs over the past five years.
(click image to enlarge)
Many
of the market commentators continue to suggest that the bull market is at its
end and a bear market has begun. Do
these five year quarterly charts look like the start of a bear market?
(click image to enlarge)
2015
NDX Review
The NDX/QQQ stocks with the largest 2015 gain were:
The NDX/QQQ stocks with the largest 2015 gain were:
(click image to enlarge)
The NDX/QQQ stocks with the largest 2015
loss were:
(click image to enlarge)
The
NDX/QQQ distribution of 2015 one
year returns for the 100 stocks on Dec 31 was as follows with 60 stocks with positive returns,
38 stocks with negative returns and two stocks trading less than one year.
Up > 20% = NFLX, AMZN, CTRP, ATVI, NVDA, INCY, GOOGL, SBUX, EA, EXPE, TMUS, ULTA,
AVGO, JD, MNST, FB, REGN, ORLY, ADBE, FISV, NCLH, MDLZ, VRSK (23)
Up 10% to 19.99% = LVNTA, MSFT, MXIM, CTXS, EBAY,
SIRI, HSIC, BMRN, PAYX, TRIP, ROST, CTSH, COST, PCLN, WBA, LMCA, NXPI (17)
Up 0% to 9.99% = CHTR, DLTR,
XLNX, TSCO, TSLA, GILD, CELG, SWKS, VRTX, INTU, ILMN, CHKP, ISRG, ESRX, ALXN,
TXN, AMGN, ADP, ADSK, LRCX (20)
Down -0.01% to -9.99% = BIIB, SRCL, CERN, LLTC, CA,
VOD, SBAC, INTC, AAPL, MYL, CMCSA, CSCO, KLAC, ADI (14)
Down > -10% = MU, WDC, VIAB, STX, BBBY, NTAP, YHOO, WFM, QCOM, PCAR, FOXA, AMAT, DISCA,
SNDK, DISH, AAL, SYMC, BIDU, AKAM, LBTYA, ENDP, FAST, MAR, MAT (24)
Two
stocks PYPL and KHC have been trading for less than one year.
The
NDX distribution of returns should
convince you that: “It’s
a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”
2015
SPX Review
The
strongest SPX sectors for 2015 were XLY and XLV, XLB and XLE were
the weakest.
(click image to enlarge)
NFLX, AMZN and ATVI also led the SPX in 2015. The next SPX/SPY stocks with the largest 2015
gains were:
(click image to enlarge)
The
SPX/SPY stocks with the largest 2015
loss were:
(click image to enlarge)
2015 DJIA Review
The
DJIA/DIA stocks with the largest 2015
gain were:
(click image to enlarge)
The
DJIA/DIA stocks with the largest 2015
loss were:
(click image to enlarge)
Trade with the trend of the chart you are
trading and continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue
to follow your rules.
The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 60.
__________________
Setups
Horizontal Breakout: CRM, PLAY,
SEDG, VXX, YELP, ADSK, COST, SBUX,
Diagonal Breakout: BABA, ETFC,
FAS, PANW, SCHW, SINA, STI, SVXY, V, VRSN, ZION,
FB, INTC,
Bull Flag: AA, AIG, BXLT, CAH,
CCL, CSIQ, DAL, DPS, DRI, FINL,
FIVE, FSLR, JASO, KR, KWEB, MPEL, NTES, RCL, RUN, SCTY,
SOHU, SONC, SPWR, SUNE,
TBT, TSL, W, WUBA,
YNDX, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, AVGO, GOOGL, ILMN, JD, LRCX, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, MCD, KMB,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
CRUS, JBL, LNKD, NKE, QRVO, SLCA, TPX, AAPL, LLTC, NFLX, SWKS, TXN
Bear Flag: MNST
Moves
H Breakout: TSLA
Bull Flag Bounce: TERP
______________________
8 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher
and two were unchanged on Thursday.
48 NDX stocks are
above their 30 DMA.
NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving
Above 30 DMA
= 1
LBTYA,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
ADP, CHTR, COST,
CTXS, EA, EXPE, FB, INTC, MXIM, NXPI, PAYX, PCLN,
6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:
Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
