Friday, August 14, 2015

IWM, SPY, QQQ Gain as Utilities,Financials Bounce...13-F Filings In, Confirm Q2 Chart Action...

Eight sectors moved higher on Friday…the strongest sectors were XLU, XLF and XLI…the weakest sector was XLE. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 2.15 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.54 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – strengthened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led

SPY up .78 at 209.42 on 72.7 million shares, below average volume
VIX down .66 at 12.83
TNX up .07 at 21.96…
TLT up .29 at 123.96…
XLF up .18 at 25.2507…

AAPL up .81 at 115.96 on 42.9 million shares
FB up .99 at 94.42 on 15.9 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.64%, SPY +0.36%, QQQ +0.15%, DIA +0.34%.

SPY, IWM, QQQ and DIA finished higher on Friday and for the week.  Utilities, financial and industrial sectors led on Friday for the week XLE energy +3.5%, XLU +2.7% and XLI +1.25%.

Financials jumped on Friday with gains in FAS, STI, AIG, ZION, ICE, MS, SCHW, ETFC, WFC and many other financial stocks.

Market action discounts everything is one of the foundational principles of technical analysis.  13-F filings of institutional holdings are in for Q2 ending June 30.  It is interesting to see that MU -30.5%, AAL -24.2% and WFM -24.0% in Q2 each show institutional holdings falling in Q2 by approximately -113 million shares, -47 million shares and -21 million shares respectively.  

Inversely GPRO +21.4%, FB +4.3% and AMBA +35.6% gained in Q2.  Institutional holdings increased +22 million shares, +44 million shares and +1.8 million shares during the quarter in each stock respectively.

While it is not possible to know which institutions are buying and selling and how much they are buying and selling in real-time during the quarter, their buying and selling cannot be hidden from the price.  Hence the trend of the price reveals if institutions are net buyers or sellers.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Q1 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – W, VSLR, CREE, JCP, YY, CAR, CTRP, HLF, KBR, MGM, MNST, NUS, NVDA, PCLN, VMC, ZU, EXPE, CCE, MOH, YRCW, WAGE, COLM, RCL, WETF, TPX, WU, AEE, FE, PKI, TUC, AMGN, VLO, UHS, WDC, AEL, ALGT, EEFT, GILD, JBLU, SHOP, SKX, X, SSNC, BWLD, PODD, SVU, NUVA, SCTY, ULTI, WYNN, CTRP, FISV, SLCA, SPWR,  NCLH, AMZN, P, MXIM, JNPR, V, SBUX, LUV, QLIK, SNDK, TXN, UA, WHR, GM, VRSN, CHKP, FFIV, FTNT, LVS, PKG, TMO, TSCO, VMW, ACE, APH, OC, BA, CHKP, IPG, CLI, CMG, LVS, MANH, TRV, VMW, LAD, HOG, WWW, ZION, HAS, HAL, GOOG, HTZ, HON, GE, NFLX, SCHW, EBAY, C, USB, DAL, BAC, WFC, JPM, NKE, AA

More than 10% - W, FSLR, HLF, NUS, NVDA, ZU, EXPE, CCE, MOH, YRCW, WAGE, COLM, SHOP, SKX, X, SSYS, BWLD, SVU, P, FTNT, SNDK, GOOG, GOOGL, HTZ, NFLX

Negative Reactions – BABA, CYBR, RAX, XONE, JUNO, NTES, AIG, ALL, AXTA, DIS, ETSY, GMCR, GOGO, HABT, NCLH, JD, SEDG, TSLA, UBNT, Z,  LNKD, FEYE, OCN, ESI, FB, MAR, SSYS, TWTR, YNDX, YELP, BIDU, BIIB, TRIP, STT, AAL, FSL, KLAC, MCD, UNP, SAVE, CELG, CA, CMCSA, ETFC, CAT, DOW, FCX, MMM, OSTK, IBM, KO, QCOM, AXP, AAPL, IBKR, ILMN, XLNX, VZ, BEAV, BHI, LLTC, MSFT, YHOO, EXAS, STI, UNH, MAT, KEY, YUM, FAST, CUDA, MU

More than -10% - XONE, ALL, ETSY, FIT, GMCR, HABT, SEDG, SUNE, LNKD, OCN, ESI, WFM, TWTR, YELP, BIDU, BIIB, TRIP, GIMO, SCSS, BEAV, SWI, CUDA, MU

Reversal in progress – LAD,

Reversal of Initial Reaction – HTZ, HON, GE, AA,

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 210.57, 211.45...
QQQ = 111.81, 113.00
IWM = 121.52, 123.71…

Support Levels
SPY = 206.80...
QQQ = 109.40, 108.22…
IWM = 119.02, 117.97...


The SPX Market Forecast is turned up at 51.

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: AIG, GPRO, RPD, UA, PAYC, ULTA, AHS, TSS, STX
Diagonal Breakout: AMBA, CCL, CRM, MBLY, NCLH, FB, PYPL, QQQ, RCL, SONC, SPY, STI, SPY, V, WDC,
Bull Flag: EXPE, FSLR, HOG, NKE, P, SHOP, SOHU, TLT, HAWK, VRX, WETF, MANH, UVE, CBM, REGN, CMG, VRSN, W, X
Bear Flag: BABA

Moves
New Highs: DAL, TPX
Bull Flag Bounce: FIT,
MACD Divergence Bounce: IWM,
Bounce: BAC, BX, C, FAS, MS, SCHW, ZION,
Gap Up: JCP
  
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Watch List Stocks
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: FIT, JCP, YELP, TSL, JD, MBLY, GME, CRM, FAS
                                                       
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: NTES, SUNE, SCTY, SHOP

61 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: JD, CERN, ADBE, BIDU, STX, CSCO, WDC, TRIP

Lagging NDX stocks included: VIAB, MU, WYNN, NXPI, AVGO, CMCSA, WFM


NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
CHKP, INTC, INTU, LBTYA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
CELG

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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