Wednesday, May 11, 2011

SPX Breaks the Low of the High Day...

The SPX opened lower and formed a black candle equivalent to a bearish engulfing and closed -15.08 at 1,342.08. Tuesday was the high day in a three day rally. Wednesday broke the low of the high day which is an short term exit for some traders. Oil, gold and silver all formed bearish engulfing patterns while moving lower on Wednesday.

SPX black candle -1.11%
INDU black candle -1.02%
COMPQ black candle -0.93%
RUT bearish engulfing -1.78%

Breadth weakened on Wednesday as decliners led advancers 2.57 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.24 to 1 on the NASDAQ …

Exchange     NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers       857            626
Decliners      2,207         2,029

Index      Chg.       Close      Direction      Confirmation
VIX         +1.04        16.95         Up                Yes – SPX
SOX        -3.70      440.89        Down           Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included FAZ, LVS

Losing stocks < -2.0% included UCO, SLW, FCX, WLT, MCP, PCX, ATI, VLO,IAG, DOW, CLF, SWKS, AKS, CDE, FAS, JDSU, MOS, POT, DE, SOHU, LDK, SWN, AGU, IPI, CF, CHL, SLB, CAM, CAT, X, URE, ATW, VECO, NYX

Positives –AMZN, NFLX, TLT

Negatives – SPX, VIX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT, breadth and sectors weakened, XLF, Euro, TNX, BIDU, GOOG,PCLN

Interest rates TNX -0.38 moved down and bond ETF TLT moved up 54 cents. Financial stocks XLF dropped -22 cents. The Euro fell -197 pips to 1.4209 at 5 pm on Wednesday.


All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday. Healthcare XLV -0.17% and Consumer Staples XLP -0.19% were the strongest sectors.


Friday, Monday, Tuesday Bull Flag Entry Signals
On Wednesday
Continued to RiseHUM, NVDA, CY, AMZN

Pulled BackCROX, CTRP, XRAY, EXPE, ILMN, MICC, CHKP, TUP, VECO, ACN, GLW, NYX, V, ISRG, EXPD, FFIV, ILMN, SINA, ARUN, GMCR, MCP, VMW, BIDU, ESRX, A, AMD, ATI, CAT, CIEN, CSTR, DHR, DLR, DOW, GES, TIF, UNP, URE, WDC, WYNN, CTXS, BBBY, DTVSPX

Bull Flag SetupsF, SMH, SNDK, SWKS, SWN, UNG, ALTR, LLTC, QCOM, PCLN, CELG


Resistance: 1,344, 1,352, 1,367
Support: 1,330, 1321

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -2.22 – black spinning top
AMZN +0.44 – white spinning top
BIDU -3.34 – black candle
GOOG -7.21 – black spinning top
NFLX +3.04 – white spinning top
PCLN -7.51 – black candle
QCOM -0.32 – black spinning top

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include TEVA, DELL, ADBE, ROST, INTC, NFLX, AMGN, ORLY, APOL, WCRX, NVDA, AMZN, CERN, VMED and ADSK.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include YHOO, JOYG, FSLR, MYL, CTRP, RIMM, BIDU, LINTA, AKAM, MU, LRCX, MICC, QGEN, CTXS and EBAY.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, HLF, CSTR, DHR, A, ANF, DLR, TIF, V, NYX, CIEN, VMW, URE, ATI, TLT, DOW, MHS, AMD, GES, NVDA, SMH, JDSU, UNP, SWN, VECO, HAS, UAL, GMCR, CF, ACN, GLW, RVBD, ESI, FWLT, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CMG, FAZ, ICE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
CAT, CRM, IL, NDAQ, SNDK, STI, SWK, SWKS, VLO, WDC
Staying Below 30 DMA
ARUN, MCP, SINA, WLT, F, FAS, LVS, SOHU, UNG, UCO, DE, NETL, PCX, AGU, AKS, ATW, FCX, IPI, LDK, SLB, TSL, CLF, DECK, CHL, NTES, POT, JEC, JNPR, SLW, IAG, GS, CDE, TBT, MOS, X, CAM, BAC, CRUS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

This is the difficult situation which seems to happen time and time again. Market shows bounce at support, we get a couple of decent days. Enough time to enter positions. Roll over happens. Stops get moved up on bearish candles. Stops will get hit and losses will occur.

Perhaps you can show exit set ups here.

Maybe you can address this tonight if you are on.

DW

Anonymous said...

Dave,

what is the status of the SPY(Fri entry)trade? an update would be helpful to understand the subtle nuances of different sitiations. did you exit below Wednesday's low? would you explain your exit "rule", strategy for this trade.

thanks for all your help and guidance.

A grateful student/trader

Anonymous said...

AMZN is at the top of a long term upper trend line.

Anonymous said...

DW,

You'll have to evaluate the general and sector's market structure, and determine if your applied short-term strategies are conducive to good trading opportunities in the present market conditions.

I find daily bar Flags very challenging in general consolidating and/or rotating conditions, and retreat from using them and lower exposure. Let's say I get more selective with my choices. I also drop the time frame. I like the structures that I can see on a 30 min. chart. I guess experience is key, more than following a set of rules blindly.

Dave gave me a trick a few years ago: backtesting, especially with different market conditions, using perhaps the SPX as a guideline, running the charts simultaneously, and evaluate what kind of results you'll get. Perhaps more important: what do you see on the charts? That backtesting exercise, and analysis of different market structures, will give you a lot of insights. It's no guarantee for future results but it is a good guideline.

Hope it helps you and others.

MH