SPX Again Holds Above Nov 16 Support...

On Tuesday the SPX sold off to near its Nov 16 low where buyers once again took control.  The SPX closed at 1,180, down -7.21 or -0.61%, the COMPQ moved down -26.99, the INDU fell -46.47.  The RUT closed -4.94 well above its Nov 16 low.

Breadth weakened on Tuesday as decliners led advancers 1.96 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.05 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange     NYSE   NASDAQ

Advancers    1,000         873

Decliners      1,964      1,794

Index   Direction    Confirmation

VIX          Up             Yes – SPX

SOX       Down         Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included DECK, NFLX, FAZ, X, HAS, SKX, CAT, ZION, AKS, WFMI, AKAM, MA, PCP, BYI, CMG, MHS, TLT, GR, SLB, ATI, HSY, VMW, HANS, GMCR, CREE, MCD, FCX

Losing stocks included LDK, ARUN, TSL, SOHU, ESI, UCO, VECO, CRM, BAC, WHR, PCLN, GES, NYX, USD, FAS, LXK, UAL, SINA, A, GS, CSTR, FFIV, STI, HLF, WLT, CAM, SNDK, SWK, ACN, AMD, CRUS, TBT, NTES, CF, MOS, GME, JEC, CLF, BA, PNC, RVBD, TIE, IPI, RMBS, LVS

Interest rates moved lower, bonds moved up, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed lower -1.27% closing below its horizontal breakout last Wednesday. The SOX is a leading group at this time. The VIX moved up +2.01 to close at 23.54.

One of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday with Materials XLB +0.06% and Utilities XLU -0.16% leading all sectors.

The four broad indexes continued their consolidation of the past three weeks on Tuesday. The SPX is above horizontal support while the INDU is at horizontal support. The COMPQ and RUT are well above horizontal support. 

Consolidation is generally a trend continuation pattern.  If the support low of Nov 16 is NOT broken, look for this consolidation to ultimately resolve to the upside.

Individual stocks from our watch list like AZO, CMG, CREE, DECK, NFLX and RIMM continue to move in strong up trends.

Bull Flag Patterns include AMZN, CF, CSTR, CRUS, CRM, FFIV, GES, GR, HANS, ILMN, INFA, NETL, NTRI, ORLY, PCP, ROST, RVBD, SINA, SNDK, USD

To trade an up trend focus on those stocks that institutions are buying and causing to be relatively stronger.

Continue to trade with the up trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,190, 1,200, 1,209
Support: 1,182, 1,170, 1,156

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance. Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -5.72 – black candle confirm potential hanging man close above 30 DMA
AMZN -4.09 – black candle in bull flag
QCOM -0.46 – spinning top in consolidation
GOOG -26.40 – large black candle breaks support
BIDU -2.33 – black candle close at horizontal support

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include RIMM, FLEX, ISRG, ROST, COST, SYMC, SRCL, MAT, ORLY, FSLR, SPLS, EXPD, CHRW, GENZ and SHLD.
 
Stocks weaker than the NDX: GOOG, FWLT, LOGI, EBAY, NIHD, YHOO, MICC, STX, WCRX, PCLN, DELL, MXIM, MYL, AMZN and QGEN.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, LVS, CMG, SINA, CAKE, CAM, UNP, WLT, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, WFMI, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NETL, FFIV, SWN, CAT, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, CLF, CRM, INFA, VMW, HANS, RMBS, SNDK, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR, CF, AIV, AKAM, ATI, PCP, POT, SKX, FCX, FDX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AKS, TLT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
A, ARUN, DOW, GME, SOHU, TBT, UAL, UCO
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMD, DHR, MOS, SPG, AMX, FLS, DE, ESI, MA, PNC, GS, ICE, JEC, NTES, FAS, IPI, LDK, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, NYX, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, WHR, LXK, TIE, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open as Euro Continues its Down Trend...

BMO - ES -10.50 and NQ - 21.75 futures are lower in pre-market trading and point to a lower open...

TLT is up 1.48 and the Euro is down 115 pips...

Continue to watch for a potential break of support on the COMPQ and the Nov 16 low on AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM...

SPX
Resistance: 1,190, 1,200, 1,209
Support: 1,182, 1,170, 1,156

Trading Down - GOOG, PCLN, AAPL, MICC, AMZN, NIHD, ALTR, WYNN, FSLRMA, CMG, FFIV, GS, CRM, POT, SLB, VMW, FCX, AGU, TBT, CF, MOS, AKAM, SOHU, ATI, SOHU, CLF, CAT, DE, BA, V, FDX, ATW, CREE, X, LVS, CHL, VECO, ARUN, FAS
 
Trading Up - RIMM, DECK, TLT, INFA, PNC, FAZ, GES, KLAC, ILMN, URBN

SPX Bounces From Low...Closes Slightly Lower...

On Monday the SPX sold off to near its Nov 16 low where buyers once again stepped up sending the SPX back near last Friday’s close.  The SPX closed at 1,187, down -1.64 or -0.14%, the COMPQ moved down -9.34, the INDU fell -39.51.  The RUT closed -0.78 on Monday closing above last Wednesday’s S1 level.

Breadth strengthened on Monday but remained negative as decliners led advancers 1.36 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.21 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ

Advancers    1,255       1,204
Decliners       1,719       1,456

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX          Down             No – SPX
SOX        Down             Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included SINA, FDX, UCO, NFLX, VECO, FCX, CREE, CAM, DLR, ATW, FAS, ESI, BAC, SLB, ATI, HLF, X, AKS, TIE, LVS, TLT, STI, GS, AKAM, UNP, DECK, SNDK, SKX, CMG, MHS, POT, SWN, MCD, PNC, VMW

Losing stocks included GES, UNG, ARUN, HANS, UAL, AMD, MOS, A, GME, TSL, TBT, CSTR, V, RVBD, FAZ, GMCR, PCLN, HAS, DHR, CRM, ZION, HSY, PCP, DE, SOHU, FLS, NTES, INFA, BA, FFIV, GR, CF, IPI

Interest rates moved lower, bonds moved up, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed slightly lower -0.88% closing above its horizontal breakout on Wednesday. The SOX is a leading group at this time. The VIX moved down -0.69 to close at 21.53.

SPY jumped to a more normal volume of 223.5 million shares up from 76 million shares on Friday.

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Monday with Materials XLB +0.86% and Financials XLF +0.83% leading all sectors. XLB and XLF reversed being the weakest sectors on Friday.

The SPX continued its consolidation of the past three weeks falling to its Nov 16 support before rising to form a hammer by the end of the day. Over the past two weeks the SPX has traded in a tight 27 point trading range.

Consolidation is generally a trend continuation pattern. So if the support low of Nov 16 is NOT broken look for this consolidation to ultimately resolve to the upside.

During the consolidation of the past two weeks the market has become more selective with the small cap RUT, semiconductors SOX and Consumer Discretionary XLY performing relatively stronger. Individual stocks from our watch list like CMG, DECK, CSTR, RVBD, CRM, CAKE NFLX, FFIV, AMZN, SNDK WLT, GES, SLB, GR, VECO, INFA, ALTR, NVDA, BRCM, USD, JOYG, CTXS, ROST, URBN, SPLS and MAT have also been relatively stronger.

To trade an up trend focus on those stocks that institutions are buying and causing to be relatively stronger.

The big seven were again mixed on Monday AAPL, AMZN and NFLX moved higher, BIDU, GOOG and PCLN moved lower. QCOM was down slightly. GOOG is at its horizontal at support with BIDU and PCLN well above support. Continue to watch the support levels on these stocks as a key for the COMPQ staying above support.

NFLX and AMZN made another new high close.

Continue to trade with the up trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220
Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance. Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.87 – potential hanging man close above 30 DMA
AMZN +2.29 – spinning top
QCOM -0.42 – hammer in consolidation
GOOG -7.89 – black candle in consolidation at horizontal support
BIDU -1.99 – black candle close below 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include EXPE, AMZN, ERTS, FWLT, MXIM, NVDA, YHOO, SRCL, ADSK, LINTA, SNDK, AAPL, ESRX, VMED and TEVA.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: WCRX, FSLR, EBAY, VOD, ROST, CELG, CTXS, VRSN, MICC, SYMC, BIDU, LOGI, FLEX, PCLN and MYL.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, LVS, CMG, SINA, CAKE, CAM, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NETL, FFIV, SWN, CAT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, ARUN, CLF, CRM, INFA, UAL, VMW, HANS, RMBS, SNDK, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR, CF, AIV, AKAM, ATI, DOW, PCP, POT, SKX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
FCX, FDX, UCO
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
AMD, DHR, MOS, SPG
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMX, FLS, AKS, DE, ESI, MA, PNC, GS, ICE, JEC, NTES, FAS, IPI, LDK, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, NYX, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, WHR, LXK, TIE, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO - ES -4.00 and NQ -6.00 are lower in pre-market trading about 20 minutes before the open and point to a slightly lower open...

TLT is up 32 cents and the Euro is down 160 pips...

Stocks continue in consolidation trading between the Nov 16 low and th Nov 18 high on the SPX...We will watch the Nov 16 support low on AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM  for indication  of a break of support and a potential continuation move to the downside...

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading...

SPX

Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220

Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Trading Down - MICC, CRM, MA, GES, GS, BA, HANS, MCD, A, CAT, URE, DOW, CLF, JEC, V, VMW, UNP, FCX, SLB, FFIV, NTES, CAM, GMCR, SNDK, STIL, X, TBT, CREE, MOS, HSIC, INFY, HOLX, VRTX, BMC, PCAR, VRSN, INTU, DTV, NTAP, MCHP, VOD, MXIM, SBUX, QCOM, MAT, CTXS, PCLN, EBAY, XLNX, BRCM

Trading Up - AMZN, CHKP, AAPL, CELG, NFLX, AKAM, FDX, DECK, ICE, NDAQ, DE, NETL, CMG, CSTR, CF, HLF, TLT, DLR, TSL, CTAS, FSLR, ISRG, BIDU, GOOG

SPX Pulls Back on Light Volume in Half Day of Trading...

On Friday the SPX retraced 50% of Wednesday’s move up in holiday shortened light volume trading.  The SPX closed at 1,189, down -8.95 or -0.75%, the COMPQ moved down -8.56, the INDU fell -95.28 and the RUT closed -3.80 on Friday finding support at Wednesday’s S1 level.

(click image to enlarge)

                                    

Breadth weakened from Friday as decliners led advancers 2.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.72 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ

Advancers         923                920

Decliners        1,944              1,586

(click image to enlarge)

Index Direction      Confirmation

VIX       Up                Yes – SPX

SOX     Down            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included GMCR, FAZ, CMG, FFIV, NFLX, GES, DECK, TLT, F, AKAM, GME, RMBS, HANS, ARUN, X, CRM, TSL

Losing stocks included FAS, FCX, TBT, TIE, CREE, CAM, JEC, AKS, ATI, LVS, STI, VECO, SKX, NTRI, SLB, NETL, LXK, CF, SPG, IPI, BAC, AMX, GS, UAL, DOW, MCD, LDK, SWN, USO, MA, FDX, ICE, PNC, WHR, BA, CLF, AMD, FLS

Interest rates moved lower, bonds moved up, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed lower -0.67% making a return move to its horizontal breakout on Wednesday.  The SOX is a leading group at this time.  The VIX moved up +2.66 to close at 22.22.

As expected the SPY did have its lightest volume, 76 million shares, of the year in the half day on trading on Friday.  It was the first time in 2010 that SPY traded less than 100 million shares.

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday resembling Tuesday’s sell off with Materials XLB -1.69% and Financials XLF -1.44% leading all sectors lower.

The SPX has been in consolidation for three weeks following a 186 point rise over 10 weeks.  The SPX retraced 54 points or 29% making its recent support low on Nov 16.  Over the past two weeks the SPX has traded in a tight 27 point trading range.

Consolidation is generally a trend continuation pattern.  So if the support low of Nov 16 is NOT broken look for this consolidation to ultimately resolve to the upside.

During the consolidation of the past two weeks the market has become more selective with the small cap RUT, semiconductors SOX and Consumer Discretionary XLY performing relatively stronger.  Individual stocks from our watch list like CMG, DECK, CSTR, RVBD, CRM, CAKE NFLX, FFIV, AMZN, SNDK WLT, GES, SLB, GR, VECO, INFA, ALTR, NVDA, BRCM, USD, JOYG, CTXS, ROST, URBN, SPLS and MAT have also been relatively stronger.

(click image to enlarge)

Dave's Insight: To trade an up trend focus on those stocks that institutions are buying and causing to be relatively stronger.

The big seven were mixed in the half day of trading on Friday with AAPL, BIDU and NFLX up, AMZN, PCLN and QCOM down slightly and only GOOG moving down $4.97.  All are above their 10 DMA and 30 DMA except GOOG.

NFLX made another new all-time high.

Continue to trade with the up trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX

Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220

Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.  Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch.  Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +0.20 – potential shooting star close above 30 DMA

AMZN -0.05 – doji

QCOM -0.37 – spinning top in consolidation

GOOG -4.97 – doji in consolidation at horizontal support

BIDU +0.37 – white candle above 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include VRTX, ADBE, MAT, TEVA, EXPE, BIDU, CTSH, INFY, ATVI, URBN, CTXS, CSCO, ROST, AAPL and DTV.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: JOYG, MICC, GILD, DISH, DELL, SRCL, WCRX, ALTR, SPLS, STX, CA, LRCX, CTAS, NVDA and SYMC.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN,  LVS, CMG, SINA, CAKE, CAM, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NETL, FFIV, SWN, CAT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, ARUN, CLF, CRM, INFA, UAL, VMW, HANS, RMBS, SNDK, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR, CF, AIV, AKAM, AMD, ATI, DHR, DOW, MOS, PCP, POT, SKX, SPG
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

AMX, FCX, FDX, FLS

Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, DE, ESI, MA, PNC, GS, ICE, JEC, NTES, FAS, IPI, LDK, UCO, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, NYX, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, WHR, LXK, TIE, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Stocks SPX Rally on Thanksgiving Eve...Let Us Be Grateful...

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Christine shared this with me and I thought, you like me, would enjoy it too!

My New Parrot....Recently I received a parrot as a gift.

The parrot had a bad attitude and an even worse vocabulary.
Every word out of the bird's mouth was rude, obnoxious and laced with
profanity.

I tried and tried to change the bird's attitude by consistently
saying only polite words, playing soft music and anything else I could
think of to "clean up" the bird's vocabulary.

Finally, I was fed up and I yelled at the parrot.
The parrot yelled back.
I shook the parrot and the parrot got angrier and even ruder.

So, in desperation, I threw up my hands, grabbed the bird and
put him in the freezer.

For a few minutes the parrot squawked and kicked and screamed.
Then suddenly there was total quiet.

Not a peep was heard for over a minute.

Fearing that I'd hurt the parrot,
I quickly opened the door to the freezer.

The parrot calmly stepped out onto my outstretched arms and said
"I believe I may have offended you with my rude language and
actions.
I'm sincerely remorseful for my inappropriate transgressions and
I fully intend to do everything I can to correct my rude and
unforgivable behavior."

I was stunned at the change in the bird's attitude.

As I was about to ask the parrot what had made such a dramatic
change in his behavior, the bird continued,

"May I ask what the turkey did?"

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!!

On Wednesday the SPX formed a large white candle that moved above Tuesday’s high.  The SPX closed at 1,198, up +17.62 or +1.49%, the COMPQ moved up +48.17, the INDU rose +150.91 and the RUT closed +16.60 on Wednesday just 0.24 point below its closing high on Nov 8.

 (click image to enlarge)

So how many of you actually paid attention to this technical observation from Tuesday’s post?  “A sell off day and the small caps and semiconductors are relatively stronger…two interesting clues…”

                                    

Breadth strengthened from Tuesday as advancers led decliners 4.87 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.77 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ

Advancers      2,505              2,108

Decliners           514                 558

(click image to enlarge)

Index Direction      Confirmation

VIX       Up                   Yes – SPX

SOX     Up                   Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included GES, CREE, VECO, UCO, SKX, SNDK, UAL, CSTR, AKAM, FAS, USD, NETL, AMD, LDK, URE, LVS, TSL, SWK, SINA, RVBD, PCP, DECK, TBT, INFA, VMW, AIV, WLT, HANS, TIE, BA, SPG, DHR, DOW, FDX, ATI, FFIV, GR, CLF, GMCR, CF, CMG, AMX, A, STI, CAT, FLS, CAM, ARUN, POT, DLR, SLB, ICE, FCX, IPI, MOS, UNP, WHR, LXK, CRM, CAKE, BAC, NTES

Losing stocks included FAZ, TLT, ZION, DE, CRUS

Let us be grateful…not because the market rose on Wednesday…rather because we have many blessings of life, family, health, freedom, opportunity, growth, learning and improvement.  I hope everyone is having a Wonderful Thanksgiving Day weekend.

Interest rates moved higher, bonds broke below the low of the high day giving a bearish entry signal on a bear flag pattern.  The Euro moved lower and the SOX closed higher +2.69% and broke out of horizontal resistance to a new high close.  The SOX is leading the market higher.  The VIX moved down -1.07 to close at 19.56.

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday reversing Tuesday’s sell off with Industrials XLI +2.26% and Consumer Discretionary XLY +2.06% leading all sectors higher. 

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ closed above their 30 DMA and the RUT already above its 30 DMA moved near its horizontal resistance.  The RUT continues to relatively stronger.

Half day of trading on Friday, generally the lightest volume day of the year.  2009 was the exception with the Dubai news causing a flurry of selling volume that was reversed the following week.

The big seven AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM all rose on Wednesday and stayed above the Nov 16 support low.  AMZN and NFLX both made a new high close.

(click image to enlarge)

Dave’s Insight:  If price action stays above support in an up trend, it is price fluctuation not trend change.

Dave’s Insight:  The trend is your friend ONLY if you trade with the trend.

Once again the news which said Korea, euro debt and the Fed’s downgrade in growth for 2010 and 2011 was the cause for Tuesday’s selloff…had a one day impact and did not reverse the trend.

Did this question get your attention from Tuesday’s post?  “Maybe so, but if these fears were really wide spread among big money, why were semiconductor and small caps stocks relatively stronger?”

Dave’s Insight:  A news event generally impacts price action only for a day or two.

Continue to trade with the up trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX

Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220

Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.  Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch.  Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +6.06 – white candle close above 30 DMA

AMZN +9.05 – large white candle horizontal breakout, all-time high

QCOM +0.97– large white candle

GOOG +11.96 – large white candle close above horizontal support

BIDU +2.69 – white candle above 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include AMZN, ALTR, SNDK, PCAR, PDCO, FWLT, FLIR, JOYG, WCRX, BBBY, EXPD, NIHD, SBUX, CTXS and SPLS.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: VMED, MRVL, APOL, ESRX, DELL, AMGN and VOD.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN,  LVS, CMG, SINA, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DHR, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, AMD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, ARUN, SWN, CAT, POT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, ARUN, CLF, CRM, INFA, UAL, VMW, HANS, RMBS, SNDK, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR, CF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 15

AIV, AKAM, AMD, AMX, ATI, DHR, DOW, FCX, FDX, FLS, MOS, PCP, POT, SKX, SPG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, DE, ESI, MA, PNC, GS, ICE, JEC, NTES, FAS, IPI, LDK, UCO, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, NYX, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, WHR, LXK, TIE, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Flat to Slightly Higher Open...

BMO - ES +3.50 and NQ +5.00 are higher in pre-market trading about 75 minutes before the open and point to a slightly higher open...

TLT is down 37 cents and the Euro is down 30 pips...

Expect volume to be lighter and to taper off dramatically around mid-day...watch the support levels on the  big seven AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM...

SPX

Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 1,200

Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Quoting Down - DE, UNP, CF, TLT, HAS, SLB, NTES, AKAM, SINA, ISRG, SHLD, FISV, NTAP, GENZ, VOD, BRCM

Quoting Up - PCLN, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, BIDU, WYNN, GES, MA, CMG, FFIV, NFLX, SWN, DECK, VMW, CRM, LVS, FCX, MHS, CAT, CLF, JEC, BA, CREE, TBT, FAS, V, F, GILD, URBN, BIIB, ORCL, RIMM, QCOM, COST, ESRX, EBAY

SPX Moves Lower Holds Above Nov 16 Low...

On Tuesday the SPX formed a large black candle that stayed above the Nov 16 low.  The SPX closed at 1,180, down -17.11 or -1.43%, the COMPQ moved down -37.07, the INDU pulled back -142.37 and the RUT finished -7.40 on Tuesday.  A sell off day and the small caps and semiconductors are relatively stronger…two interesting clues…

                                    

Breadth weakened from Monday as decliners led advancers 3.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.97 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ

Advancers         673                 672

Decliners        2,366              2,000

Index Direction      Confirmation

VIX       Up                   Yes – SPX

SOX     Down             Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included FAZ, CF, CRM, CSTR, SKX, DECK, RVBD, SNDK, TLT, CMG, HSY, PCP, DLR, GES, HAS

Losing stocks included SWN, LDK, FAS, LVS, ARUN, SOHU, VMW, CLF, VECO, FCX, MA, F, PCLN, ATW, WLT, NYX, TIE, ESI, UAL, AMX, ZION, A, GMCR, DOW, AKAM, FFIV, AKS, NTES, GS, CAM, X, FLS, BAC, STI, WHR, PNC, CRUS, CAT, LXK, NETL, URE, JEC, NDAQ

Interest rates moved lower, bonds inched lower, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed lower -0.78% forming a potential bearish harami.  The VIX jumped +2.26 to close at 20.63.

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday with Energy XLE -1.96% and Materials XLB -1.92% leading all sectors lower. 

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ closed below their 30 DMA although all four held above their November 16 horizontal support.  The RUT is relatively stronger and closed above its 30 DMA.

Look for light volume on Wednesday heading into the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.  Half day of trading on Friday, generally the lightest volume day of the year.  2009 was the exception with the Dubai news causing a flurry of selling volume that was reversed the following week.

Watch the big seven AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM to see if they stay above the Nov 16 horizontal support.  All were well above their Nov 16 low at today’s close except GOOG which closed at last week’s low.  If these stocks stay above their short term support, that increases the probability of the up trend and support of last week continuing into next week.

The news says Korea, euro debt and the Fed’s downgrade in growth for 2010 and 2011 was the cause for the selloff…maybe so, but if these fears were really wide spread among big money, why were semiconductor and small caps stocks relatively stronger?

I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving.

I want to make some comments about the Fed policies and the definition of insanity, however I will wait until after Thanksgiving and just say that EVERYONE should be REALLY GRATEFUL that our economy is projected to grow 2.4% to 2.5% in 2010 and 3% to 3.5% in 2011.  Yes a downgrade from previous projection but still growth in and moving in the up direction.

Let us be Grateful!

Continue to trade with the trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX

Resistance: 1,182, 1,190, 1,200

Support: 1,170, 1,148, 1,130

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.  Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch.  Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -4.63 – black spinning top close below 30 DMA

QCOM -0.52– black spinning top

GOOG -8.21 – black spinning top below horizontal support

BIDU -2.56 – spinning top below 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include HOLX, ALTR, URBN, SNDK, SPLS, MAT, XLNX, MYL, PDCO, BRCM, FSLR and SHLD.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: PCLN, GOOG, AAPL, ISRG, WYNN, BIDU, MICC, AMZN, JOYG, CTXS, RIMM, SIAL, INFY, NTAP and CERN.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN,  LVS, CMG, SINA, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DHR, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, AMD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, ARUN, SWN, CAT, POT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, ARUN, CLF, CRM, INFA, UAL, VMW, HANS, RMBS, SNDK, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

CF
Moving Below 30 DMA = 15

AIV, AKAM, AKS, AMD, AMX, ATI, DE, DHR, DOW, ESI, FCX, MA, MOS, PNC, SPG

Staying Below 30 DMA
GS, ICE, JEC, NTES,  FAS, IPI, LDK, UCO, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, FDX, NYX, PCP, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, POT, ESI, SKX, WHR, LXK, TIE, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO - ES -13.00 and NQ -18.50 are lower in pre-market trading and point to a lower open...watch Monday's low and the Nov 16 low as key short term support levels...

TLT is up 68 cents and the Euro is down 137 pips...

SPX

Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220

Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Trading Down - PCLN, GOOG, ISRG, AAPL, AMZN, VIDU, MICC, WYNN, JOYG, CMG, FFIV, NFLX, WLT, FLS, CRM, FCX, LVS, GS, SWK, VMW, SWN, CLF, AGU, PNC, CREE, CLF, CSTR, URE, DECK, TSL, CF, JEC, SLB, UNP, POT, CAT, GMCR, ATI, RVBD, MOS, SOHU, FAS, CHL, VECO, BA, ARUN, WFMI, X, MA, DE, MCD, SNDK, MHS, TBT, ACN, GR, GES, V, DOW, ATW, INFA, LDK, NTAP, RIMM, CTXS, EBAY, ALTR, LIFE, SNDK, QCOM, CTSH, LOGI, LRCX, VMED, ADBE, TEVA, SBUX

Trading Up - TLT, FAZ, SKX, AKAM, BYI, URBN, GILD, CELG, HOLX

COMPQ and RUT Rise While SPX Pauses...

The SPX formed a dragonfly doji pausing its support bounce that started Wednesday.  The SPX closed at 1,197, down -1.89 or -0.16%, the COMPQ moved up +13.90, the INDU pulled back -24.97 and the RUT finished +2.97 on Monday. 

                                    

Breadth weakened from Friday but was still positive as advancers led decliners 1.04 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.02 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ

Advancers      1,526              1,350

Decliners        1,467              1,314

Index Direction      Confirmation

VIX       Up                   Yes – SPX

SOX     Up                   Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included GMCR, CRUS, NFLX, FFIV, SNDK, RVBD, CSTR, CMG, CAKE, ARUN, FAZ, LVS, NETL, VECO, SOHU, PCLN, INFA, UNG, CRM, DECK, LXK, USD, WFMI, GES, ATI, VMW, BYI, GME, HSY, AKAM, CLF, AKS, SINA, HLF, BA, RMBS, POT, MHS, FDX, URE, AGU, NTRI, CREE

Losing stocks included GS, FAS, BAC, ZION, TSL, V, NDAQ, JEC, UNP, ICE, STI, WHR, PNC, HAS, WLT, TBT, CAM, DE, NYX, X, AMD, UCO, SWN, ESI, DOW, CAN, ATW, AMX

Interest rates moved lower, bonds inched higher, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed higher +1.10% on the first day of this holiday shortened trading week.  The VIX rose +0.33 to close at 18.37.

Five of nine sectors moved higher and XLP was unchanged on Monday with Technology XLK +0.58% and Consumer Discretionary XLY +0.47% leading all other sectors. 

All four indexes closed above their 30 DMA for the third day in a row on Monday.  The SPX and INDU experienced an early pull back and then recovered in the afternoon.  The COMPQ and RUT were relatively stronger all day.  The SOX is also leading the NDX and technology stocks.

Look at the strength of Monday's leading NDX stocks SNDK, AMZN, CTXS, PCLN, AAPL, WYNN, BRCM, CELG, ALTR, VRSN and ILMN.  Then look at the NDX losing stocks from the list below.  Selectivity has been key in decision making since the beginning of earnings season in mid October.

Other strong NASDAQ stocks include NFLX, FFIV, SNDK, RVBD, CSTR, ARUN, VECO, DECK, WFMI, INFA and AKAM.

The SPX continues to lag the COMPQ and RUT as Financial stocks XLF continue to lag other sectors.

Continue to trade with the trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX

Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220

Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.  Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch.  Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +6.63 – large white candle close above 30 DMA

QCOM -0.15– black spinning top

GOOG +0.39 – white spinning top at gap support

BIDU +0.28 – doji above 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include SNDK, AMZN, CTXS, ADSK, ISRG, PCLN, AAPL, WYNN, BRCM, INFY, CELG, ALTR, VRSN, ILMN and FAST.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: VMED, STX, FSLR, HSIC, EXPE, QGEN, NIHD, SYMC, GILD, HOLX, VOD, CMCSA, TEVA, PCAR and CTAS.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN,  LVS, CMG, SINA, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DHR, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, AMD, DECK, GR, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, ARUN, SWN, CAT, POT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, ESI, GES, HAS, MCD, UNG, AIV, AMX, ARUN, CLF, CRM, DE, DHR, DOW, FCX, INFA, MA, MOS, UAL, VMW, AKAM, AMD, HANS, RMBS, SNDK
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6

AKS, ATI, CRUS, FAZ, GMCR, SPG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

GS, ICE, JEC

Staying Below 30 DMA
 CF, NTES,  FAS, IPI, LDK, UCO, ZION, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, FDX, NYX, PCP, STI, SWK, TSL, BA, HSY, POT, ESI, SKX, WHR, LXK, TIE, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Up