Thursday, September 16, 2010

SPX Pauses at Resistance for Fourth Straight Day...

The broad indexes paused at horizontal resistance led by the INDU rising 22 points...the more narrow NDX rose +8.51 or +0.44%...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,265          977
Decliners     1,730        1,641

(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction      Confirmation
VIX         Down             No – SPX
SOX        Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Wednesday included SINA, MOS, ESI, GME, HSY, AGU, WLT, UAUA, A, USD, CREE, CRUS, TBT, X, FFIV, IPI, WFMI, UNG, AKS, PCP, FAZ, DOW, BUCY, POT, BYI, CSTR, NETL, ACN, WMT, CHL, TIE, FCX


Losing stocks included FDX, VECO, UCO, ATW, MHS, SWK, SWN, NFLX, CAM, STI, CMG, USO, UPS, RVBD, BAC, NTRI, VMW, AMD, SNDK, TLT, URE, FAS, ICE, SPG, V, NDAQ PNC, JEC, HANS, AMX, DE, NTES, NYX

Positives:
The short term SPX trend is up
The VIX falls
The EURO rose
The SOX rose
The NDX broke out of horizontal resistance
AAPL, PCLN, AKAM, ILMN, FSLR, AMZN leaders making higher highs breaking out
RIMM gaps up after earnings after the close

Negatives:
The SPX at intermediate term resistance
The RUT lagging

As I said earlier on the Active Investor Talk the intermediate term SPX trend at resistance suggests the probability is a pull back. The weight of the other technical evidence listed above suggests that a breakout will occur. A trader should already be long and prepared to stay with the current short term trend in case of an SPX breakout while at the same time having stops below recent short term resistance if the trend breaks support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,148
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day. There are numerous stocks in our list that have already broken resistance and have paused or pulled back over the past one to three trading days.

Wait to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -0.38 to 21.72, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL   +6.35 – large white candle
QCOM -0.01 – spinning top
GOOG +0.42 – spinning top
BIDU   -0.21 – doji

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ILMN, EXPE, KLAC, FSLR, STLD, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, INTU, CSCO, AKAM, INTC, NIHD and ALTR.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ATVI, CMCSA, TEVA, LBTYA, SPLS, ESRX, FLEX, ERTS, ORCL, NWSA, LINTA, BIIB, EXPED, NTAP and PPDI.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ,UAUA, USD, VECO, DECK, MA, NETL, TBT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
PNC
Staying Below 30 DMA
NTES, TLT, UCO, USO, CHL, GR, V, FAZ, CSTR, SNDK, BA, CRUS, CREE, TIE, SWN, UNG, SKX, AMD, NTRI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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