Thursday, September 9, 2010

SPX Gaps Higher...Closes Up...But Below Open...

INDU          10,415.24  +28.23 +0.27%
SPX             1,104.18    +5.31 +0.48%
COMPQ        2,236.20   +7.33 +0.33%
RUT                634.62   +0.37  +0.06%

Exchange      NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers     1,876          1,396
Decliners       1,134          1,191

Oil             $74.83  +0.07
Gold     $1,248.00   -8.80
SOX          321.08  +0.18
VIX             22.81   -0.44

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX         Down           Yes – SPX
SOX        Up               Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included STI, FAS, ZION, GMCR, MHS, PNC, RVBD, SNDK, VECO, TSL, GS, FLS, BAC, NDAQ, ATW, SWK, GES, FDX, LXK, USD, AMD, SINA, CHL, NYX, VMW, A, ICE, LVS

Biggest losers included SKX, DECK, NETL, UAUA, IPI, TIE, FAZ, CLF, V, GR, X, MCD, WHR, CMG, CRM, NTRI, MOS, URE, BA, WLT, CREE, UCO, PCLN, ATI, AKS, FCX, MA, CRUS, DLR, DE, GME, HANS

The SPY formed a new high black candle on light volume that is potentially short term bearish if confirmed on Friday with a break below the low of the high day. However, the weight of the technical evidence is still bullish: A higher close, a higher high and higher low, light volume, financials leading, advancers leading decliners, a falling VIX and rising interest rates.


All sectors except XLB and XLI moved higher led by Financials, Healthcare and Utilities. Advancers led decliners 1.6 to 1 on the NYSE.

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Friday.

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,100, 1,115, 1,130
Support: 1,086, 1,071, 1,056

The SPX moved above Tuesday’s high touching 1,110 before closing up 5.31 points at 1,104.18 forming a higher low and higher high again on Thursday.

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Be prepared to exit short term trades according to your rules with a break below the low of the high day.  Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a break of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -0.44 to 22.81, continuing below the benchmark 25.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL    +0.15 – dark cloud cover like candle higher high and higher low
QCOM  -0.02 – hanging man outside day
GOOG  +5.60 – hanging man new high close
BIDU     -0.36 – dark cloud cover like candle higher high and higher low

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ADBE, WCRX, LIFE, AMAT, FLEX, APOL, NWSA, AMGN, HOLX, XRAY, EXPE, MCHP, ESRX, FAST and LINTA.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ALTR, CTSH, PCLN, STLD, XLNX, NVDA, DELL, CTXS, LOGI, JOYG, EBAY, JBHT, HANS, PCAR and INTU.

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, BYI, GMCR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, AKS, CAT, ICE, X, BAC, FAS, FDX, FLS, GS, MHS
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
ATW, RMBS, STI, ZION
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
DECK, UAUA
Staying Below 30 DMA
TLT, VECO, CHL, GR, HSY, NTES, V, FAZ, GES, CSTR, NDAQ, AMX, GME, MA, SNDK, BA, CRUS, ACN, ATI, CREE, TIE, UCO, USO, USD, PNC, SWN, UNG, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, NTRI, ESI, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Yet another Great! Great! class on "the details", during last night's AIT!!
Question; I'm wondering about the timing of when to load-the-boat with risk-amount-per-trade...? Ex, I noticed that Wed's ATA you were loading trades with 2% of net liq risk. I don't know that I remember anytime in the recent past, that you put on that much risk/trade...?
As Always Dave, You're The Man!
Scott L of Nashville
(By the way, at +22 months into my education, it's like I'm hearing EVERYTHING you say for the very 1st time) SLoN