Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +5.00 and NQ +8.75 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. In pre-market trading AAPL is +1.46, GOOG +2.55, BIDU +1.12, NFLX +1.79.


Bonds are slightly lower and TLT is down 34 cents in pre-market trading.

The Euro is flat in overnight trading and at the support of its 10 and 30 DMA forming a doji and a flag pattern at this moment.

SPY is is up 44 cents and XLF is up 7 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.

Short term resistance is at 1,103 to 1,105. This same support level was broken on Tuesday in a continuation pull back that started on Monday. Watch for a potential test of Tuesday's break today. If buyers don't take it through this short term resistance, there could be more to this pull back.

Because of the reversal pattern on the chart with the low at 1,040, this current move is most likely a pull back in an overall sideways intermediate term trend. Based on the chart it appears most probable that this pull back will make a higher low. Whether that is Tuesday's low or a low to be made on a different today this week or next, will be determined by when buyers take the SPX back through the 1,103 to 1,105 level.

After nine and a half net up days, this short term trend was due for a correction. Tuesday's low marked a 38.2% Fib retracement on the SPX and could be the low. If this morning's trading stays above Tuesday's low of 1,094 and can break through the 1,105 resistance with a confirmation from the VIX falling below 25, then this may be the pull back low.

If trading can't accomplish that, then we will look for another lower high and lower low today. Next support level is at 1,081.

Trader's should be prepared for either outcome as it unfolds. Follow your rules for potential enter and exits and trade the charts you are trading following the principles of trend, support and resistance and momentum.

This is a pull back in a short term trend in an intermediate term sideways trend. We also refer to the intermediate term pattern as congestion or consolidation.

Stocks are mixed with a bias to the upside on light volume in pre-market trading.

Continue to be alert to the 1,103 resistance level and the potential for a break through resistance or the support of Tuesday's low.

AAPL, BRCM and NTRI were up and stronger than the market on Tuesday as were BIDU and GOOG thought they were down slightly. .

Here are 30...YES...30 terrific looking bull flag setups... NFLX, AKAM, SNDK, CMG, VMW, UAUA, CAL, ALK, DECK, SKX, HSY, FFIV, ILMN, LVS, AZO, AAP, TIE, DLR, UNG, UCO, ICE, NETL, BA, CAT, NYX, BIDU, NTAP, SWN, HAS and CRM, most of which are also listed in our At the Open watch list below.

If any of them work, you can thank me later.

If the SPX makes a higher low and breaks through 1,105, the new chart target is 1,170 in approximately four weeks.

VIX closed at 27 on Tuesday. I view 25 as an important confirmation level for a continuation of the recent support bounce. If this breakout support bounce is going to continue look for the VIX to stay below 25.

Trading Down: FAZ
Trading Up: NFLX, BUCY, PNC, ATI, CHL, MOS, POT, CAT, HSY, BA, FCX,SNDK, CLF, TIE, FAS, V, LVS, X, GS, CRUS, MCD

There are other stocks quoting higher on no volume in the pre-market trading.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral. The intermediate term trend is neutral and long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,094, 1,081, 1,071
Resistance = 1,105, 1,119, 1,130, 1,148

At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ -
FAS -
TLT – support bounce

AAPL – new high close
CRUS –
BRCM -
BIDU – symmetrical triangle breakout
AKAM – flag
SNDK – flag
NTAP - flag
ILMN – flag
NFLX – flag
FFIV – flag
DECK - flag
CMG – flag
VMW – flag
ALK – flag
UAUA - flag
CAL – flag
SKX – flag
AZO – flag
LVS –flag
HSY – flag
DLR - flag
CRM – flag
TIE – flag
UNG – flag
UCO - flag
AAP – flag
SWN – flag
ICE – flag
BA – flag
CAT – flag

ORLY –
CSTR -
NETL – reversal breakout
NYX – reversal breakout
GMCR – reversal breakout
BA – reversal breakout
CAT – reversal breakout
VECO – reversal breakout
CREE – reversal breakout

AKS
X – counter trend at support
PCLN – reversal
CLF – potential double bottom breakout
DOW –
BBY –
GOOG
MA -
V –
PCP –
UNP –
FCX –

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave:
You are terrific.
Thanks for all your extra efforts:
Mentorship, coaching, blogging, commentary, etc.
Gratefully,
Robert
CANI_212

Peter said...

Please explain how you derive these values for SPY support (1094, 1081, 1071) and resistance (1105, 1119, 1130, 1148)