Thursday, April 15, 2010

An UPS Day in an Up Trend...

DJIA 11,144.57 +21.46 +0.19%
SP500 1,211.67 +1.02 +0.08%
COMPQ 2,515.69 +10.83 +0.43%
Russell 2000 724.21 +1.81 +0.25%


Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,461 1,551
Declining 1,551 1,149


Oil $85.60 -0.24
Gold $1,159.70 +0.70
SOX 398.86 +1.13
VIX 15.89 +0.30

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Up No – SPX
SOX Up Yes – COMPQ

Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.96%…XLK +0.46%...XLY +0.43%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.41%...XLV -0.28%...XLP -0.18%

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Industrials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.08%.

Sector Watch
Up Trending: XLY, XLI, XLP, XLF, XLK
Horizontal Breakout:
Sideways: XLB, XLE, XLV, XLU
Down Trending:

XLB and XLE are at horizontal resistance and have NOT yet broken through.

Key Resistance Levels
1,216 = Fib extension
1,220 = Sep 25, 2008 resistance
1,255 = Mar 16 BO chart target
Key Support Levels
1,200 = Jul 2008 support

Stock prices consolidated on Thursday as the SPX stayed above Wednesday’s S1 level of 1,204. Strong earnings from UPS led FDX and other transportation stocks higher. UAUA rose +5.28% as rumors of airline merger continued. The Dow Transports rallied 79.90, +1.72%.


After the close:
GOOG -29.10, -4.89%, $6.70 earnings vs. $6.60 estimates
ISRG -8.01, -2.06%, $2.12 earnings vs. $1.68 estimates
AMD -0.49, -4.82%, adjusted 9 cents earnings vs. -7 cents estimates

If these weak after hours earnings reactions carry through to Friday morning it could lead to a down day.

Many individual stocks and ETFs like UAUA, VAR, TSL, SYNA, WCG, USD, SNDK, WAB, GME, ALGT, CAT, PCP, FUQI, ATW and BUCY had strong gains on Thursday.

Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

Key Earnings to Watch:
Friday – BAC, GE

Guidance:
The SPX closed at 1,211 forming a spinning top and the second candle in a potential evening star pattern. On Friday watch for penetration of Wednesday’s S1 level at 1,204 and formation of an evening star. Yellow Alert for short term traders.

Continue to trade with the trend. Be mentally flexible.

The intermediate term chart target is still 1,255 in approximately nine weeks after the 1,150 breakout on March 16.

The VIX rose +0.30 and did NOT confirm the higher close on Thursday.

The short term trend is up.
The four-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch trade with the trend and follow your rules.

Adjust your stops according to your rules for up and down trending trades.

AAPL +3.23
QCOM +0.10
GOOG +6.30
BIDU +11.30
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: EXPD, FSLR, YHOO, INTC, FAST, WCRX, FISV, STX, CHRW, DELL, BIDU, JBHT, ALTR, AAPL, TEVA, CSCO, CTXS, SBUX, ADP, GOOG, AMZN, ISRG, IACI, MICC, NVDA, XRAY, ORLY, CTAS, PCAR, ADSK, URBN, CELG, MXIM, INTU and DISH.

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA
CBST, DLB, NFLX, UAUA, BA, CREE, WHR, WLT, PCLN, PCP, GR, BUCY, UNP, CAT, SPG, V, CLF, ESI, DE, UNP, V, BAC, DE, DHR, URE, JEC, GES, GMCR, TDG, FAS, UYG, X, USD, SNDK, DECK, MELI, FLS, HDB, HLF, VAR, ATI, GS, DOW, AMD, AMX, WFC, CEDC, MA, ZION, BKC, MCD, GME, FCX, TSL, BYI, USO, CAM, SYNA, ATW, STT, CHL, SWK, ACN, WAB, ALGT, AMED, SWN, ESI, ICE, K
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
X
Staying Below 30 DMA
BDX, WMT, HANS, MHS, WCG, PWRD, AGU, MYGN, IPI, POT, MOS, HEAT, VPRT, CGA, FUQI, FAZ, UNG, MON

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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