Monday, October 12, 2009

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

2:20 pm ET - the 1,075 horizontal resistance is holding although the SPX hit 1,079.46 on an intra-day high earlier...this is to be expected in front of so many important earnings announcements this week starting with INTC on Tuesday...see Friday's guidance and tonight's post for more on earnings... 1:06 pm ET - Look at XLF, SPX, SOX and LLTC this way... (click image to enlarge) 1:00 pm ET - XLE continues strong, XLF is gaining strength which is bullish as SPX moves near its highs... (click image to enlarge) 12:00 pm ET - the SPX is back on track at 1,077.52 +0.56% after hitting a high of 1,079.46...XLE is now up 96 cents or 1.72%...BDK has pulled back and is up $3.14 or 6.65%...Semicondcutors SOX +1.94%...WLT, LLTC, FSLR, LVS, BRCM, GOOG, FLS, HANS, XLNX, TC, BAC, AA and JOYG have gains between 1 - 3%+ Learn the Lesson - thanks for sharing your BDK comments...I'm looking forward to reading more, so keep them coming...one comment posted "...was very disappointed when a huge gain turned into a nice gain." There is a lesson here, too. Sometimes setback distorts our view and at other times success distorts our view. My point this morning was that those who stayed with their intermediate plan of trading the trend were being rewarded for following their rules and that those who abandoned their plan due to price fluctuation were missing out. If the plan is to trade towards a 60 target due to the Inverse Head and Shoulders breakout and the trend continues to that end, then options will be worth more at some future point than they were at this morning's high. In other words, if the trend continues a "huger (yes, I know I'm coining a word here) gain" which is bigger than this morning's "huge gain" will soon be apparent...just like the current price is way above the price after the analyst downgrade. The paradox here is that the pull back from this morning's "huge gain" is actually an opportunity, not a disappointment...what you say, "an opportunity? Have you lost your mind on POT, PCP and ICE?" Think about it this way. Volume this morning after less than 3 hours is 2.3 million shares. Average daily volume is 1.3 million shares. So in less than half a trading day volume is 76% above average. Who did all that buying this morning between 50 and 52.25? Was it small money? Okay, so it was big money. If big money is buying between 50 and 52.50, why are they buying in that price range? Is it because they think it is going down? Or maybe is it because they think it is going up? Since big money creates the trend, isn't YOU'RE knowing that big money is still buying at higher prices a very positive development for an option trader with an intermediate term plan? Maybe that knowledge is worth a lot more than the difference between a huge gain and a very nice gain. If the trend is still intact and the price moves towards 60, wouldn't a pull back actually represent a buying opportunity, not a disappointment opportunity? "The mind is its own place, and in it self, can make a Heaven of Hell, a Hell of Heaven." John Milton, Paradise Lost Dave's Insight: Enjoy the profits, Enjoy the opportunity! 10:07 am ET - the SPX quote seems stuck at 1,075.06...is acting like a data glitch off the exchange...don't know this for a fact but SPY and ES moving and SPX is not? Anyone else see the same? 10:00 am ET - SPY is making a new high this morning as it touches 108.08...the SPX is at horizontal resistance 1,075.06... BMO – ES +5 and NQ +7 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +1.22, GOOG +8.65 and BIDU -3.75 are mixed in pre-market trading. The dollar weakened as the Euro rose overnight sending oil prices higher in electronic trading. XLE is up 50 cents in pre-market trading. Learn the Lesson: Now, this morning is an excellent lesson in why trend is the most important factor. On September 23, BDK was downgraded by a lesser known analyst and the stock moved lower but stayed in its intermediate term up trend. I stated publicly that an intermediate term trader should stick with their trading plan and hold the stock. Follow the trend not the recommendation of an analyst that you do not know, unless following an unknown analyst is part of your plan. This morning BDK raised their Q3 guidance to well above consensus. The stock is up $4.26 or 9% at 51.50 in pre-market trading. Congratulations to those who traded the trend and not the price fluctuation. Post any comments on your experience with this stock. SPX Support = 1,061…1,056 Resistance = 1,075…1,100 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – AAPL – PCLN – HANS – WYNN – FSLR – BIDU – GOOG – HOLX – FAS – AXP – BAC – STT – ZION – ADBE – AKAM – FLIR – MA – V – JCI – ISRG – NKE – BDK – CAT – DOW – WLT – FUQI – FWLT – WHR – X – JOYG – CAM – FCX – ARO – LVS – COST – AA –

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,
I have stuck with this trade through the up's and down's especially since I have a Jan Call on it. I'm up 169% on 4 contracts. thanks.
Michael V.

Ron said...

I got in early Aug with a Jan Call...I guess I'm enjoying the ride in ignorant bliss as I didn't even know about the downgrade (try not to let the news influence me). I must admit I had been concerned with two lower lows but it was still above the 50DMA and I had time so thanks again for keeping us focused.

SH said...

Was quite pleased to see the 10% jump this morning in BDK! I've been in a long Jan call which I'm still in and two Nov calls. I exited the Nov calls with the "break below the low of the high day" back around 9/21 ... got back in 9/28 with a break above the high of the low day which ultimately stopped out. Didn't enter again 10/5 as I should have. So there's a lesson there to follow my rules with the Nov calls and the reward of following my rules with the Jan call! Thanks Dave for daily imparting your wisdom to us. You spend so much time teaching us and we are so thankful.

Unknown said...

Thanks Dave, I got in 9/9 for $1.70 out on 9/29 for $3.21. Got back in on your advice that the trend was still up on 9/29 and elated to see it had jumped to over $4.00 this morning. I appreciate your wisdom and experience!

Anonymous said...

Dave,
Thank you!!! I had 2 short term trades on BDK. The first met my target and I got out. The second I got in without following my rules and lost money. Got back in on 10/8 when BDK broke out of resistance with large volume and also crossed above the 20 DMA. I bought Jan 55 Calls. Because I listened to you, I saw the longer term H & S pattern and understood that institutional money was behind the move. This gave me the confidence to go with the longer term trade. When I showed my husband the gap up this morning (first thing in the morning - sitting dissheveled in my PJ's), he gave me a big high five and said "and a darn good looking one too!" :-) Karla Rosen

SH said...

Yes, Dave, SPX is currently stuck at 1,075.06 with my prophetCharts. TOS charts as well. 10:12am Eastern.

Anonymous said...

Karla Rosen
As I was reading your comments, I was smiling and I thought that was so cute of your hubby to say that to you. I guess we are all listening to Dave after all
Have a good day

Anonymous said...

2 contracts for 6% gain
2 contracts for 48% gain
1 contract for 44% loss
Current position 1 contract for 150% gain

I was very disappointed when a huge gain turned into a nice gain.

My re-entry approach has been working well although I probably missed a few dollars of profit.

Don

John Kevan said...

Aloha Dave
Still in the BDK trade with entries on 8/6 and 8/28. Thanks for keeping us focused. Would love to hear your thoughts on selling calls against these intermediate positions. Since you could do ITM, ATM or OTM calls with each having it's own impact on capping profits if the stock continued it's trend instead of pulling back or increasing profits and making the pullbacks easier to hadndle if the stock does pullback, what factors do you use to make that decision?

Gr82BaDad said...

I too am sticking with the trade (JAN 10 calls) and actually sold some OCT calls on the way down and got out of the OCTs on the bounce up. Its all you Dave!

Anonymous said...

Good morning, Dave!

Wow, so much of this morning's post hits home with me, and as i see here, many others as well!

It is 8:55 AM PDT right now and the SPX on my computer is at 1077.46. But, since this is 3+ hours later than your post this morning, I am figuring the problem of it being stuck (?) is hopefully gone for you..

About BDK.. Yes, I remember when it was downgraded by an analyst.

And Yes! I am in BDK. On August 27, 2009 I bought calls at the 45 Strike, Jan. 2010 Expiration.

I am still in that trade,(In LARGE part b/c of listening to you!), and my account is now up as I type, 72.49% on BDK.

Because of not having a lot of formal education in my back ground, I would wonder if this was 'over my head' to be able to be a successful trader..

But since listening to you regularly, I am proving to myself that i can do it- Not only increasing my confidence in my ability to trade but in everything else in my life, as well..

With the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would like to extend a most Sincere Thanks to you Dave!

Wishing you a completely Awesome day!

Laney

Anonymous said...

Hey Dave

I got out after losing 50% of my profits, But still made money on the
trade, BUT YES STICKING TO THE TREND I WOULD OF MADE MORE MONEY (jan 50call)

Thanks, for the lesson Dave

Anonymous said...

(jan50 call) in one of your capstones you mention to to sell calls against it, that's what I should of done when it was in price fluctuation

Thanks Dave

Royce said...

Dave,

I entered the BDK trade on 8/18 I had the Nov $50 calls. My target was 51.05. On 9/16, I hit my target and closed out the trade for a 343% gain. I re-entered the trade on 9/28 and got stopped out on 10/1 with a 36% loss. I again re-entered the trade on 10/8 and I am up 43% so far even after the pullback intra-day today. All of these were successful trades because I followed my rules.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience,...and thank you for your patience, persistence,and consistency.

Anonymous said...

Dave,
I still have some positions in BDK & they are doing grand, thanks to you! I didn't sell calls in the pullback but sure will do that on the next one.
I must admit I get very nervous on those large pullbacks but am learning so much from your advise. I no longer look at intraday charts for my longer term positions. And, when I have closed out too early, I jump right back in on the next entry signal. Your insight is incredible! Thanks you SO much for all you do!
Lois

Anonymous said...

Dave...I too have stayed with the trend on BDK which I bought calls on back on Aug. 6th. My only regret is not selling calls on the pullback. I definitely need to use that idea more frequently. There are a few profit takers today which is to be expected after a big gap up at a resistance level. However, the probabilities are that this stock is going to continue in it's upward trend to the 60 target. Check out the huge volume so far. According to the daily chart, most of it occurred first thing this morning when big money was in there buying. It is highly unlikely that institutional money would be jumping in there in a big way if they thought BDK was going to reverse it's bullish trend. Keep on stressing the importance of staying with the trend, Dave. Each day more and more of your devoted followers are beginning to see the light..

Jim.QQQ said...

Thanks Dave for being an awesome teacher! BDK has been very, very good to me.

On 10/6, I bought 6 contracts for Nov 45 Call @ $3.30 (+100% right now in 7 days.) I will exit @ fib 161% target $56.44 on a fibonacci I drew from high of 9/16 to low of 10/2. Not wanting to loose any of today's gap up, so I also raised stop to below 9/16's S1 $49.29. May end up being too tight, we'll see.

Previous BDK was bull-flag entry on 9/4 Oct 45 Call 13 contracts @ 1.50 (Target $ was Fib 161% level $49.44 from fib drawn 8/25 high to 9/2 low). Trade closed on morning of 9/16 @ 5.07. (+228% in 13 days!)

As TV's Mr Rogers used to say, "It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood."