Friday, July 17, 2009

Futures Pointing to a Flat Open...

9:48 am ET - Both BAC and C reported positive earnings this morning and are trading a few cents higher in early trading. The broad indices are pulling back slightly in early trading while AAPL +2.00 is trading higher. BMO – ES -1 and NQ +1 futures are near unchanged in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. It's options expiration Friday. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT – INFY – JOSB – PRU – URBN – ARO –

Thursday, July 16, 2009

SPX Moves Higher...

DJIA +95.61 +1.11% SPX +8.06 +0.86% NASDAQ Comp. +22.13 +1.19% RUT +6.38 +1.24% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,077 1,677 Declining 875 972 Oil 62.02 +$0.48 Gold 935.40 -$4.00 SOX 287.00 +5.44 VIX 25.42 -0.47 The VIX moved lower and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.84%...XLK +1.46%...XLY +1.24% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.33%...XLU +0.04%...XLV +0.64% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Industrials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.86%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.33%: AXP, SPG, MMC, GS, BK, AOC, ZION, IVZ, STT, TRV, MET, RF, PRU, USB, NTRS and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.46%: EBAY, AMAT, DELL, MA, ADBE, IBM, YHOO, EMC, GLW, INTC, HPQ, TXN and CSCO. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 930 = horizontal 920 = horizontal end of May high 912 = 50 DMA 878 = 200 DMA 870 -875 = horizontal The SPX rose to 943 before closing at 940.74. This is the SPX’s fourth highest close since November 5, 2008 only surpassed by three trading days in early June. We have maintained for weeks that the current chart pattern was a sideways trading range. Last week when we were loudest solo voice that this was likely a head and shoulders top, most people were licking their chops on the money they were going to make to the downside. We said in our Thursday webcast on July 9, like it or not the technical evidence does not suggest that a break of support is likely. We almost begged people to do the right thing and get long. We were almost the only up trending (what some call bullish) voice out there. We also said that the SPX was not likely to move more than 30 to 40 points unless there was a catalyst that got buyers going. We said that better than expected earnings could be that catalyst. What did the market do? Exactly what was most probable based on the chart. It bounced off of support, ironically with the strongest four day rise we have see since the week of March 9, the first week of the current four month up trend. The catalyst better than expected earning from GS and INTC spurring buying interest in financial and technology stocks including bands and semiconductor stocks. We have maintained for weeks that this sideways consolidation was a trend continuation pattern and that it would most likely resolve to the upside. The SPX is back up to the 940 – 950 resistance area and will need another positive catalyst to push through the two resistance formed in early July. The most likely source again is earnings. Thursday was a high day so it is important to realize if the market does not get another catalyst that today’s low represent an important short term support area for short term traders. While it is too early to say that Thursday’s low will be breached, we need to stay focused on it, if it is broken. Once again Yellow Alert. Friday is options expiration so be prepared for some extra volatility. Key Earnings and Economic Releases Friday: BAC, C Housing Starts Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, URE, WRC Moving Above 30 DMA = 8 AFAM, CLB, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, STRA, BKC, APEI, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, JOYG, MCD, MYGN, PWR, GPRO, JEC, BLUD, RBN, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, RIMM, SPWRA, MON, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Lower Opening...

BMO – ES -1 and NQ -2 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. Jobles Claims will be out this morning at 8:30 am ET. If the report comes out better than the expected 535K, it may provide the catalyst for additional buying for the SPX to break through it 930 resistance and towards its 950 resistance area. If not this could be a consolidation day...Look for earnings later today from BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM and JPM...
Many stocks in ourt Watchlists are sitting near short term resistance similar to the SPX... Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT – INFY – JOSB – PRU – URBN – ARO –

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

SPX 932...Highest Close Since June 12...

DJIA +256.72 +3.07% SPX +26.84 +2.96% NASDAQ Comp. +63.17 +3.51% RUT +19.12 +3.85% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,754 2,266 Declining 284 480 Oil 61.53 +2.02 Gold 939.40 +16.60 SOX 281.56 +11.95 VIX 25.89 +0.87 The VIX moved higher and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX. Strongest Sectors: XLF +4.25%...XLB +3.92%...XLK +3.75% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.88%...XLP +1.63%...XLU +1.99% All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Materials, Technology, Energy and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +2.96%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +4.25%: AXP, C, ICE, PNC, PRU, MET, IVZ, ZION and JPM and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +3.75%: INTC, CSCO, AMAT, ADBE, SYMC, HPQ, MSFT, EBAY, ORCL, GLW, MA and IBM. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 921 = Wednesday's S1/horizontal end of May high 912 = 50 DMA 878 = 200 DMA 870 -875 = horizontal Stocks moved higher on Wednesday as INTC had positive earnings and guidance on Tuesday evening. The market gapped up after the INTC earnings in Tuesday’s after-hours trading and futures prices kept moving higher overnight. The SPX had a strong trend day with only modest pullbacks during the day and closed near its daily high. Propelled by INTC, the SOX closed at its highest level since June 10. A rising SOX is confirmation of the rising Nasdaq. The SPX closed at the 930 horizontal level. A modest pullback staying above its 922 S1 level would be bullish, similar to Tuesday's pause after Monday's large rise. So far the catalyst for this week's rise has been strong earnings from GS and INTC and economic releases that contained no unbearable negative surprises. Major Nasdaq stocks INTC, WYNN, RIMM, CSCO, AMAT, JOYG, BIDU, BRCM, ADBE, SHLD, FSLR, FWLT, MSFT, URBN, EBAY, ORCL, COST, YHOO, AKAM, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN and QCOM all moved up more than 3% on Wednesday. Retail stocks SHLD, ARO, URBN and JOSB see Wednesday morning graphs had strong gains. Check out the 21 stocks below that closed above their 30 DMA on Wednesday. Key Earnings and Economic Releases Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM Jobless Claims Friday: BAC, C Housing Starts Index Commentary The DJIA moved formed a large white candle…broke above its 20, 30, and 50 DMA…three month chart target 10,340…volume was an above average 305 million shares…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The SPX formed a large white candle…broke above its 30 and 50 DMA…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The Nasdaq formed large white candle….broke above its 30 DMA…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a large white candle…broke above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 21 AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, URE, WRC Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, STRA, BKC, APEI, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, WCG, JOYG, MCD, MYGN, PWR, X, GPRO, JEC, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CLB, MOS, MON, SNA, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +11 and NQ +25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. The CPI and Industrial Production reports will be out before the open this morning and AMR and XLNX will report earnings today.
Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge)
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT – INFY – JOSB – PRU –
URBN -
ARO -

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Market Rises Pre INTC Release - Rises More in After-Hours Trading...

DJIA + 27.81, +0.33% SP500 + 4.79, +0.53% NASDAQ Comp. + 6.52, +0.36% Russell 2000 + 3.21, +0.65% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,123 1,520 Declining 882 1,140 Oil $59.52 -$0.17 Gold $922.80 +0.30 SOX 269.61 +4.32 VIX 25.02 -1.29 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. Today was the lowest close in the VIX since September 11, 2008. Strongest Sectors: XLY +1.56%...XLI +1.46%...XLE +1.35% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.42%...XLK +0.11%...XLP +0.30% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy, Utilities and Materials were stronger than SPX +0.53%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.42%: AFL, TROW, SPG, PRU, BK, NTRS, RF, SCHW, AOC, GS, JPM, MS, AXP and MET. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.11%: GLW, SYMC, INTC, EBAY, AMAT, TXN, YHOO, ADP, CSCO, QCOM, AMT and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 911 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 878 = 200 DMA 870 -875 = horizontal The PPI report +1.8% was worse than the forecast of 0.8%. Retail Sales in June came in at +0.6% above the 0.5% forecast. The mixed economic news followed better than expected earnings from GS Monday evening. The SPX pulled back slightly during morning but stayed well above Monday’s S1 level before closing higher at the end of the day. Retail related stocks like TRLG, GES, JOSB, SHLD, URBN and ARO did move higher on the better than expected report. After the market closed INTC reported earnings with its strongest first to second quarter growth since 1988. INTC also saw a stronger second half of the year including a forecast of Q3 revenue of $8.5 billion plus or minus $400 million. The stock rose 7%+ in after-hours trading fueling a rise during after-hours trading in other key stocks in like AAPL +$2.23 and MSFT+$0.65, SPY also rose $0.84 or +0.93% more than the 50 cent rise during trading hours. We’ll watch if the gains hold overnight on Wednesday morning. Key Earnings and Economic Releases Wednesday: AMR, XLNX CPI, Industrial Production Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM Jobless Claims Friday: BAC, C Housing Starts Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, ORCL, PETS, USD Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, STRA, BKC, GILD, APEI, DECK, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO – ES +5 and NQ +6 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. PPI and Retail Sales report will be out at 8:30 am ET. Watch for the reaction to the reports before the open to see if the futures maintian their higher price. Better than expected reports could lead a continued support bounce, while a negative surprise could result in a pull back after Monday's large gains. Earnings continue today with ABT and INTC reporting. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – ADBE -
AAPL – PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT – INFY – JOSB – PRU –

Monday, July 13, 2009

Buyers Take Over Create Strong Suppot Bounce...

DJIA + 185.16, +2.27% SP500 + 21.92, +2.49% NASDAQ Comp. + 37.18, +2.12% Russell 2000 + 12.33, +2.56% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,527 1,952 Declining 477 722 Oil $59.69 -$0.20 Gold $922.50 +10.00 SOX 265.29 +6.25 VIX 26.31 -2.71 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +6.40%...XLB +3.04%...XLI +2.56% Weakest Sectors: XLE +1.09%...XLY +1.52%...XLU +1.63% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Only Financials, Materials and Industrials were stronger than SPX +2.49%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +6.40%: BAC, PRU, ZION, WFC, IVZ, MS, MET, C, JPM, AFL, ALL, USB, STT and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.88%: AMAT, MSFT, MA, ADBE, EBAY, INTC, IBM, AMT, AAPL, GOOG, GLW, QCOM and TXN.. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 911 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 878 = 200 DMA 870 -875 = horizontal Financial stocks lead the broad market higher as banks, insurance and brokerage stocks make large gains. PPI and Retail Sales Reports will be out before the market up and could act as a catalyst to move the market higher. Retail stocks related stocks like TRLG, GES, JOSB, SHLD, URBN and ARO could move higher with a better than expected report. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, ORCL, PETS, USD Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 FAZ, FUQI Staying Below 30 DMA HLF, STRA, BKC, GILD, APEI, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

2:50 pm ET - The Bounce...did you catch it? GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, AMZN all produce nice gains from At the Open on Monday list...hope you caught some! BMO - ES +4 and NQ +6 are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL, GOOG, QCOM and AMZN are also higher in pre-market trading. FAST which was up on Friday is lower on low volume in pre-market trading after releasing earnings this morning. Watch for a bounce or break of support and trade accordingly this morning... Look at these Charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – AAPL – GOOG - PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT – INFY – FAST –

Friday, July 10, 2009

SPX Holds Support...

The SPX held the 870 - 875 support area on Friday as large cap Nasdaq stocks AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL, INTC, QCOM, RIMM, EBAY, CTSH and BIDU moved higher. (click image to enlarge) Nasdaq 100 stock INFY traded more than double average volume after a positive earnings report Thursday evening. INFY gained +4.23% on 135% volume increase. FAST which has their earnings conference call Monday morning, gained +3.56% on a 106% volume increase. (click image to enlarge) DJIA - 36.65, -0.45% SP500 - 3.55, -0.40% NASDAQ Comp. + 3.48, +0.20% Russell 2000 + 1.71, +0.36% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,435 1,403 Declining 1,529 1,220 Oil $59.89 -$0.52 Gold $912.50 -$3.70 SOX 259.04 +1.09 VIX 29.02 -0.76 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.40%...XLU -0.11%...XLI -0.14% Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.33%...XLE -0.71%...XLB -0.57% Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than SPX -0.40%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.33%: AXP, RF, MS, TRV, USB, TROW, SPG, AOC, CB, BAC, KEY, SHCW, GS, MMC, MET, AFL,BK, ALL and ICE. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.40%: YHOO, GW, SYMC, AAPL, EBAY, GOOG, CSCO, QCOM, ORCL, ADBE, DELL and AMAT. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 883 = 200 DMA 910 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 870 -875 = horizontal The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879. The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration. Key Earnings and Economic Releases Monday: FAST, GS Tuesday: ABT, INTC PPI, Retail Sales Wednesday: AMR, XLNX CPI, Industrial Production Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM Jobless Claims Friday: BAC, C Housing Starts The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879. The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration on Friday. Key Earnings and Economic Releases Monday: FAST, GS Tuesday: ABT, INTC PPI, Retail Sales Wednesday: AMR, XLNX CPI, Industrial Production Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM Jobless Claims Friday: BAC, C Housing Starts Alert: The up coming week appears to be a pivotal week and you will need to trade with the bounce or the break, whichever occurs. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, FAZ, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 BYI, CTSH Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 DLTR, ESRX, HLF Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, ORCL, STRA, BKC, GILD, AAPL, APEI, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

9:51 am ET - after a lower open ES futures are turning positive...GOOG, AAPL, BIDU, SHLD and other Nasdaq stocks leading market higher... 9:40 am ET - Key Nasdaq stocks moving higher... Look at these Charts... (click image to enlarge) BMO - ES - 6 and NQ -7 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. It will be important to watch this week's lows to see if support holds today. Most of the stocks we are watching seem be down a small amount in light pre-market trading. At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – FUQI – GMCR – SHLD – FAS – FAZ – ESRX – JOYG – STT – X – AMZN – AAPL – PCLN – BIDU – GES – NFLX – PWRD – ALGT –

Thursday, July 9, 2009

SPX Inches Higher...

DJIA + 4.76, +0.06% SP500 + 5.38, +0.35% NASDAQ Comp. + 5.38, +0.31% Russell 2000 - 0.09, -0.94% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,803 1,341 Declining 1,169 1,317 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials, Energy, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology were stronger than SPX -0.17% Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.26%: ZION, GS, PRU, JPM, MET, C, IVZ, RF, NTRS, STT, WFC, KEY, MS, CME and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.63%: ADBE, AMT, AMAT, GOOG, EMC, GLW, DELL, IBM, MA YHOO and SYMC. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 883 = 200 DMA 910 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 870 - 875 = horizontal PWRD big move up. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT, PPD, AMX, DLTR Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 NFLX Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 BDX, ORCL, STRA Staying Below 30 DMA BKC, GILD, AAPL, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

BMO - ES +7 and NQ +8 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. This could lead to a gap open on the SPX and SPY. Often on a gap up the market will cool off after about 20 minutes pull back and then resume its up ward direction. If the market does gap look for support bounce entry opportunities as price breaks the high of the low day which on the indices and many individual stock charts was on Wednesday. Dave's Insight: Traders who allow a bearish mentality to creap into their thinking, often are not able to see the support bounce in a sideways trend opportunity until it is too late. Make every effort to see legitimate opportunities where they exist on the chart for your own benefit. Look at these Charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – hammer QQQQ – doji FUQI – large black candle GMCR – hammer SHLD – black candle FAS – hammer like FAZ – white candle ESRX – hammer JOYG – hammer STT – hammer X – hammer like AMZN – bullish harami AAPL – bullish harami PCLN – hammer like at support BIDU – hammer GES – hammer NFLX – hammer PWRD – hammer/bullish harami ALGT – bearish engulfing

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

SPX Form a Hammer...Believe It or Not...

DJIA + 14.81, +0.18% SP500 - 1.47, -0.17% NASDAQ Comp. + 1.00, +0.06% Russell 2000 - 4.57, -0.94% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,019 883 Declining 1,971 1,801 Oil $60.14 -$2.79 Gold $909.30 -$19.80 SOX 250.94 -1.79 VIX 31.30 +0.45 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.93%...XLY +0.83%...XLP +0.43% Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.68%...XLU -0.44%...XLI -0.39% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, Technology and Energy were stronger than SPX -0.17% Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.68%: NTRS, CB, AOC, SCHW, AXP, TRV, SPG, BK, JPM, ZION, STT, AFL and MET. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.06%: ORCL, ADP, GOOG, AAPL, HPQ, EBAY, AMT, ADBE, IBM, EMC and MSFT. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 883 = 200 DMA 910 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 870 -875 = horizontal The SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA all formed a hammer candle pattern as each formed an intraday double bottom around 12:30 and 2:30 ET. The DJIA and Nasdaq each closed slightly positive while the SPX closed slightly negative. The SPX fell to 870 in its 875 horizontal support zone where buyers stepped in moving the SPX to an 879 close. Today is the low day. A break above the high of the low day is a potential entry signal for short term traders. Watch for a continuation of the today's support bounce and potential entry signals. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, BDX, STRA, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT, PPD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 AMX, DLTR, ORCL Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 BKC, GILD Staying Below 30 DMA AAPL, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NFLX, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Flat Open

BMO - ES -1 and NQ -1 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. Futures were up 2 points a few minutes ago and now down slightly so they are fluctuating before the open. Remember the SPX is just above its 875 support area and the hammers on the chart Monday failed to confirm on Tuesday. If this market breaks support be prepared to trade lower. Last Wednesday's Yellow Alert that turned red on Thursday has paid off for short term traders. Look at these Charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – large black candle at support QQQQ – large black candle broke support FUQI – spinning top GMCR – black candle SHLD – large black candle broke support FAS – black candle FAZ – white candle at resistance ESRX – white spinning top JOYG – large black candle at support STT – large black candle at support X – black spinning top AMZN – large black candle broke support AAPL – large black candle above support PCLN – black spinning top above support BIDU – large black candle above support GES – black spinning top inside day NFLX – black candle above support PWRD – black candle at support ALGT – spinning top near resistance

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

SPX Closes Near Horizontal Support...

DJIA - 161.27, -1.94% SP500 - 17.69, -1.97% NASDAQ Comp. - 41.23, -2.31% Russell 2000 - 9.78, -1.98% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 649 655 Declining 2,352 2,028 Oil $62.93 -$1.12 Gold $929.10 -$1.60 SOX 252.73 -7.51 VIX 30.85 +1.85 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. Strongest Sectors: XLV -0.39%...XLP -1.24%...XLF -1.57% Weakest Sectors: XLI -3.42%...XLB -2.85%...XLY -2.68% All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.57%: KEY, WFC, JPM, BAC, RF, PNC, ZION, USB and NTRS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -2.47%: SYMC, IBM, CSCO, INTC, AMT, T, AAPL, HPQ, ORCL and VZ. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 885 = 200 DMA 908 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 875 = horizontal Monday's hammer pattern in the broad indices did not confirm on Tuesday as the SPX broke below its 200 DMA support today and closed at 881, just above its 875 horizontal support. The broad indices are at a key support level if broken could lead to significantly lower prices including approximately 800 on the SPX. On Wednesday we will be watching this key support level closely. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, CPLA, BDX, STRA, GILD, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, BKC, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 PPD Moving Below 30 DMA = 12 AAPL, AMX, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, ORCL, USD, VPRT Staying Below 30 DMA BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Lower Open...

10:20 am ET - stocks and indices continue to consolidate at Monday's support levels...look for a break above Monday's highs for entry points... BMO - ES -3 and NQ -2 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. On Monday all four broad indices formed a hammer which is a bullish candle pattern in an up trend or sideways trend. Look for a break of the high of the hammer as entry into the next short term move up... Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge) (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – white spinning top QQQQ – hammer FUQI – doji GMCR – white spinning top SHLD – piercing line FAS – white spinning top FAZ – black spinning top ESRX white spinning top JOYG – hammer STT – white spinning top X – black spinning top AMZN – hammer AAPL – hammer PCLN – black spinning top BIDU – hammer GES – black spinning top NFLX – white spinning top PWRD – doji CERN - hammer ALGT - hammer

Monday, July 6, 2009

It's Hammer Time...

DJIA + 44.13, +0.53% SP500 + 2.30, +0.26% NASDAQ Comp. - 9.12, -0.51% Russell 2000 - 3.18, -0.64% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,237 966 Declining 1,754 1,679 Oil $64.05 -$2.68 Gold $930.70 -$6.70 SOX 260.24 -3.57 VIX 29.00 +1.05 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLP +2.05%...XLV +0.78%...XLU +0.58% Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.02%...XLB -0.80%...XLK -0.28% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.26%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.09%: AXP, SPG, MET, BK, ALL, NTRS, RF, PRU, AOC, GS, PNC, TRV, CB, AFL, SCHW, TROW, JPM, ICE, STT, ZION, USB and ETF UYG. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.28%: DELL, QCOM, AMAT, EMC, T, EBAY, VZ, TXN, GLW, MA, GOOG, ADP, CSCO and IBM. Sector Watch Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLYSideways: XLE, XLV, Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 908 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 888 = June 22 weekly low 887 = 200 DMA 875 = horizontal The SPX, Nasdaq, DJIA and RUT all formed a hammer as each found support near a MA or horizontal support. The SPX found buyers at its 200 DMA, the 886 area and then rallied to close at 898.72 At the Open on Monday SPY – white spinning top QQQQ – hammer FUQI – doji GMCR – white spinning top SHLD – piercing line FAS – white spinning top FAZ – black spinning top ESRX white spinning top JOYG – hammer STT – white spinning top X – black spinning top AMZN – hammer AAPL – hammer PCLN – black spinning top BIDU – hammer GES – black spinning top NFLX – white spinning top PWRD – doji Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA VPRT, K, DV, CPLA, BDX, AAPL, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, DV, STRA, GILD, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NTLS, BKC, SLGN, USD, AMED, AMX, CTSH, HLF, GMCR, FAZ Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 ALGT Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 BIDU, HDB, SYNA Staying Below 30 DMA CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, PPD, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...

1:40 pm ET - at 11:04 am ET we closed the -200 shares JOYG at 32.56 that we sold short in the Stocks TR* on Thursday morning at 34.76, resulting in a gain of 2.20 per share or $440 or 6.3%...we will review this trade on Thursday morning...(those who were there live know we went to enter the trade at just over 35 but did take the time to explain what we were doing for those unfamilar with shorting...so the explanation time resulted in an approximately 30 cent lower entry price) 1:25 pm ET - The DJIA is now positive 14 points for the day...the ES has been range bound between 882 and 892 this morning and is currently -2.50...the SPX is -1.32 and the SPY -0.30...the Nasdaq is still weak at -18 at this time...the first four hours of trading have been a trading range just above the 887 support area previously identified...the SPX has currently formed a doji indicating buyers and seller are in balance...with 2 1/2 hours to go it of course be any other kind of candle... 10:03 am ET - indices ralied for the first 30 minutes from their lower open and look to be making a small pull back at this moment...SHLD is up...I closed the JOYG puts that we placed in last Monday nights AT TR* this morning as it reached the 33 target. The order to buy 10 JOYG July 35 puts filled last Tuesday morning at 1.25...the sell order filled this morning at 9:35 am ET at 2.80, a gain of 124% in 6 days...this should make for interesting review in this evening's webcast... BMO - ES -7 and NQ -7 are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. Watch key support areas of 887 and 875 in early trading for bounce or break. I hope every had a safe and enjoyable July 4 weekend... Look at these Charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY large black candle QQQQ – large black candle FUQI – doji GMCR – black spinning top SHLD – black candle FAS – large black candle FAZ – white candle ESRX large black candle JOYG – black candle STT – black candle X – doji AMZN – black candle AAPL – black spinning top PCLN – black candle BIDU – black spinning top GES – large black candle NFLX – large black candle PWRD – black spinning top *All TR trades are real time virtual trades placed in a virtual electronic account that transacts trades using real time prices.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Yellow Alert Turns to Red...

Stocks broke the low of the high day on Thursday leading to lower prices on the last day of trading before the three-day July 4 Independence Day holiday weekend. DJIA - -223.32, -2.62% SP500 - 26.91, -2.91% NASDAQ Comp. - 49.20, -2.66% Russell 2000 - 20.25, -3.91% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 512 454 Declining 2,440 2,246 Oil $66.73 -$2.58 Gold $930.70 -$10.30 SOX 263.81 -3.21 VIX 27.95 +1.73 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLP -2.10%...XLV -2.39%...XLK -2.52% Weakest Sectors: XLY -4.05%...XLE -4.01%...XLF -3.46% All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, Material and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -2.91%. Financial stocks weaker than XLF -3.45%: PRU, SPG, AFL, MET, RF, IVZ, MS, TRV, JPM, WFC, TROW, ALL, CB, BK, PNC, AOC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks weaker than XLK -2.52%: ADBE, ADP, ORCL, DELL, IBM, GLW, MSFT, EMC, YHOO and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 908 = 50 DMA 920 = horizontal end of May high 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 888 = June 22 weekly low 887 = 200 DMA 875 = horizontal The broad indices as well as many individual stocks broke the low of the high day as our Yellow Alert turned red. A potential exit signal for short term traders. The SPX broke the support of the 50 DMA and the S1 level of June 25 to close at 896. The sell off was broad but on light volume as DJIA volume was a below average 157 million shares. This sell off appears to be an absence of buyers rather than the sellers in strong control. This is not overly surprising in front of a three day weekend as many short term traders like to be in cash over long weekends. We’ll see on Monday if buyers reappear. The SPX is near horizontal support levels of the past 8 weeks. The red momentum line is in the lower reversal zone suggesting approximately two out of three chances for a technical support bounce on Monday. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, VPRT, K, DV, CPLA, SYNA, BDX, AAPL, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, DV, STRA, GILD, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NTLS, BKC, HDB, SLGN, USD, AMED, AMX, CTSH, HLF, GMCR, Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 FAZ Moving Below 30 DMA = 19 ALGT, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, PPD, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG Staying Below 30 DMA AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down