Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Euro, Interest Rates Pop, XLF Higher, SPY Cools After FOMC...


Four of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday… XLF, XLE, and XLI were the strongest sectors.  FB was added to the NDX before the open on today replacing INFY.

Breadth
weakened on Wednesday as decliners led advancers …1.09 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.52 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 7 cents at 143.51...volume 145.8 million shares…
VIX +0.38 at 15.95…
TNX up 0.48 at 16.97…
TLT down -1.44 at 122.59…
XLF
up 7 cents at 16.14…volume 55.7 million shares

AAPL down -2.38 at 539.00…volume 17.4 million shares …
FB down 40 cents at`27.58…on volume of 46.7 million shares…

­­­__________________

Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a gap up black candle selling off after breaking the FOMC announcement.  The SPY stayed above horizontal support.  The VIX closed higher and did not confirm the SPY move up today.

The ES closed down 4.75 at 1,426.75…NQ futures closed down 16.25 at 2,670.50 as AAPL pulled back again.

Coal stocks ANR, ACI JRCC, BTU and CNX continued their recent upward thrust on Wednesday.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the three+ week up trend is likely to continue even though a flag pull back to a higher low is possible following a five day rally.

The Euro closed up 67 pips at 1.3072 on Wednesday staying above its 30 DMA.

TNX, interest rates jumped and TLT, bonds dropped -1.44.  XLF moved up 7 cents to 16.14.


SPY – gap up black candle, breakout target 145.47
AAPL – black candle, above support, below 30 DMA
FB – black candle, bull flag, BO target 29.63
FAS – gap up potential tombstone doji
AMZN – white spinning top, bull flag
EXPE – white candle, bull flag bounce continuation
STX – gap down spinning top, bull flag
VIAB – dark cloud cover, BO continuation
RIMM – large white candle, BO continuation
CRUS – spinning top, MACD histogram bullish divergence
F – spinning top, bull flag bounce pause
PHM – large white candle, breakout symmetrical triangle, close above 30 DMA
SWK – potential shooting star at resistance, bull flag at T1
SWI – black spinning top, bull flag bounce
RAX – doji, bull flag bounce continuation
URI – gap black candle, BO set up
YELP – doji, bull flag bounce continuation, above 30 DMA
XHB – white candle, DBO setup, at 30 DMA
XRT – black candle at 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up in upper reversal zone.

____________________

Chart Targets:
SPY = 145.47 S&R measurement
ES =
1,440, 1,451.25…short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3126 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,419, 1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ


Moves:
Bounce:  CRM, AKAM, INFA, PCAR, SWK, PAY, ANR, ACI, JRCC, BTU, CNX, CMG, ADBE, WYNN, BIDU, MNST, GMCR, RIMM, SBUX
____________________

36 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: RIMM, NFLX, MNST, WYNN, APOL, GMCR, PCAR, BIDU, SIRI, DLTR

Lagging NDX stocks included:  STX, SHLD, CTXS, GRMN, MRVL, SYMC, NTAP, BMC, EXPD, FB

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included:  LDK, TSL, SINA, GRPN, SOHU, ANR, TBT, CSTR, DHR, ESI, A

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MCP, VMW, ANF

Stocks to Watch on Thursday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 84
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, FB,  NTAP, CSCO, EXPE, GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN,  XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, AVGO, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST,
ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, BMC, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLZ, NVDA, BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS


Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
SIRI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
WFM

Staying Below 30 DMA
PCLN, DLTR, AAPL, WCRX, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, BIDU, PRGO, VRSN, VRTX, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Stock Futures Rise Again In Pre-Market...FOMC To Make It's Announcement...


BMO – ES + 2.75 and NQ + 7.75…futures are up in pre- market…FB added to the NDX before the open replacing INFY. Fed to make FOMC announcement at 12:30 pm…

SPY is…up 72 cents…

XLF is …down 3 cents….
Euro
is up 32 pips…
TLT is …down 43cents…


Follow your rules for entry and exit…adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up:  AAPL, GOOG, NFLX, GOLD, AMZN, PRGO, MYL, BIIB, SBUX, NWSA, SYMC, FAS, COH, SLB, LVS, MOS, C, UCO

Quoting Down:  STX, PCAR, MDLZ, MCP, WDC, FAZ


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

SPY Breakout as Interest Rates, XLF Rise, AAPL Bounce, FB in NDX on Wednesday...


All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday… XLK, XLV, and XLB were the strongest sectors.  FB will be added to the NDX before the open on Wednesday replacing INFY.

Breadth
strengthened on Tuesday as advancers led decliners …2.10 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.47 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 97 cents at 143.44...volume 152.4 million shares…
VIX -0.48 at 15.57…
TNX up 0.33 at 16.49…
TLT down 95 cents at 124.03…
XLF
up 8 cents at 16.07…volume 47.7 million shares

AAPL up 11.56 at 541.38…volume 21.1 million shares …
FB up 14 cents at`27.98…on volume of 77.1 million shares…

­­­__________________

Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a potential shooting star after breaking above horizontal resistance.  The VIX closed lower and did confirm the SPY move up today.

The ES closed up 11.25 at 1,431.50 as the ES broke through short-term resistance…NQ futures closed up 34.50 at 2,686.75 as AAPL bounced above support again.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, JRCC, ACI, BTU, CNX, paused on Tuesday.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and the SPY did breakout following the DIA which continued higher.

The Euro closed up 65 pips at 1.3005 on Tuesday staying above its 30 DMA.

TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved down 95 cents.  XLF moved up 8 cents to 16.07.


SPY – white potential shooting star, breakout, target 145.47
AAPL – inverted hammer, higher close, below 30 DMA
FB – spinning top, bull flag, BO target 29.63
FAS – spinning top
AMZN – bullish harami, bull flag
EXPE – gap up white candle, bull flag
STX – spinning top, BO target 29.98
VIAB – spinning top BO continuation
RIMM – white candle BO
CRUS – white candle bounce, MACD histogram bullish divergence
F – spinning top, bull flag bounce
PHM – doji, symmetrical triangle below 30 DMA
SWK – doji in bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
SWI – spinning top, bull flag bounce
RAX – spinning top, bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
URI – potential shooting star, BO set up
YELP – spinning top, bull flag bounce close above 30 DMA
XHB – black candle, DBO setup, below 30 DMA
XRT – spinning top above 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above the lower reversal zone.

____________________

Chart Targets:
SPY = 145.47 S&R measurement
ES =
1,440, 1,451.25…short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3126 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,419, 1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ


Moves:

Bounce:  CRM, MCP, AKAM, FFIV, PCAR, CTSH, VMW, EXPD, TIBX, SWK, PAY, ACI, TER, IBM, CMG, ADSK

____________________

82 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: RIMM, CTXS, FLEX, TXN, EXPE, VRTX, MNST, FOSL, ALTR, SPLS

Lagging NDX stocks included:  DLTR, GOLD, SHLD, ROST, LINTA, COST, MYL, ADBE, PCLN, SIRI

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included:  TSL, CRUS, MCP, SINA, CRM, VECO, UAL, CROX, GRPN, CLF, CREE, A, AKS, ZION, JDSU, SOHU, MOS, X, YELP, SWKS, NTES, LVS, CDE, TSLA, ATI

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CIEN

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 78
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, FB,  NTAP, CSCO, EXPE, GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN,  XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, AVGO, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST,
ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, BMC, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLZ, NVDA


Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS, WFM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA
PCLN, DLTR, SIRI, AAPL, WCRX, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, BIDU, PRGO, VRSN, VRTX, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Stock Futures Rise In Pre-Market...



BMO – ES + 3.00 and NQ + 8.50…futures are up in pre- market…

SPY is…up 61 cents…

XLF is …down 1 cents….
Euro
is up 44 pips…
TLT is …down 57cents…


Follow your rules for entry and exit…adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up:  AAPL, GOOG, MNST, AMZN, SBUX, MSFT, DHR, FAS, CRM, CLF, LVS, V, C, FB

Quoting Down:  ISRG, GOLD, FAZ, JNPR, ANR

Monday, December 10, 2012

SPY Pauses As Coal Stocks ANR, WLT, JRCC Jump...



Five of nine sectors moved higher on Monday… XLB, XLI, and XLV were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth
strengthened on Monday as advancers led decliners …1.23 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.34 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 6 cents at 142.47...volume 98.8 million shares…
VIX up 15 cents at 16.05…
TNX down 11 cents at 16.16…
TLT up 55 cents at 124.98…
XLF
down 4 cents at 15.99…volume 48.1 million shares

AAPL down 3.43 at 529.82…volume 22.5 million shares …
FB up 36 cents at`27.84…on volume of 50.6 million shares…

­­­__________________

Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a spinning top at horizontal resistance above its 30 DMA.  The VIX closed slightly higher and did not confirm the SPY move up today.
This is typical for a near unchanged move in the SPY.

The ES closed up 3.00 at 1,420.25 as the ES continues above its 1,400 support area …NQ futures closed up 14.75 at 2,652.25 as AAPL held above support again.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, JRCC, ACI, BTU, CNX, jumped on Monday…as WDC and STX continued to rise.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Monday’s price action suggests the SPY bounce is preparing for a potential breakout following the DIA which continued higher.

The Euro closed up 16 pips at 1.2940 on Monday staying above its 30 DMA.

TNX, interest rates fell slightly and TLT, bonds moved up 55 cents.  XLF moved up  3 cents to 15.99.


SPY – spinning top, bull flag at T1, above 30 DMA
AAPL – inverted hammer, lower close, below 30 DMA
FB –  white candle confirms bullish harami, bull flag, BO target 29.63
FAS – spinning top
AMZN –  large black candle, bull flag
EXPE –large black candle, bull flag
STX – white candle, BO target 29.98
VIAB – white candle BO continuation
RIMM – spinning top, BO setup
CRUS – spinning top at support, DBO setup
F – white candle, bull flag bounce
PHM – spinning top, symmetrical triangle below 30 DMA
SWK – white candle in bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
SWI – spinning top, bull flag setup
RAX – spinning top, bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
URI – white candle new high close, BO set up
YELP spinning top, bull flag setup under 30 DMA
XHB – inverted hammer, DBO setup, below 30 DMA
XRT – inverted hammer above 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above the lower reversal zone.

____________________

Chart Targets:
SPY = 143.52 short-term resistance
ES =
1,419.50…1,425 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2954, 1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ


Moves:

Bounce:  MCP, ANR, AKAM, FFIV, BIG, OSK, EXPD, PCAR, PAY, PXP, PIBX, SWK, CTSH, BMW, ACI, WLT, BTU, SHLD,WDC, DE, TER, IBM, CMG, ADSK, CRM, URI

____________________

70 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Monday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MU, VRTX, NVDA, MYL, BIDU, EXPD, SHLD, CSCO, CEL, CHRW, STX, VRSN, GMCR, MSFT, DELL, LRCS, ISRG, ALTR, AMGN, PCAR

Lagging NDX stocks included: PCLN, EXPE, AMZN, MRVL, FLEX, NFLX, SBUX, SYMC, EBAY, RIMM, DLTR, FOSL, DTV, KRFT, BRCM, AAPL, BBBY

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included:  MCP, ANR, GES, LDK, CLF, ATI, ZAGG, TPX, RVBD, CDE, CREE, WDC

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GRPN, DECK, NTES, CRUS, HLF, COH, SWKS

Stocks to Watch on Monday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 74
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, NTAP, CSCO, EXPE, GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN,  XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, AVGO, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST,
ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, BMC, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD, CTXS

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
ALXN, CHRW, LRCS, NVDA

Moving Below 30 DMA =3
BBBY, EXPE, PCLN

Staying Below 30 DMA
DLTR, KRFT, SIRI, WFM, AAPL, INFY, WCRX, SPLS, ISRG, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, PNRA, INTC, BIDU, ESRX, VRSN, VRTX, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Stock Futures Edging Lower In Pre-Market...



BMO – ES - 2.75 and NQ - 4.75…futures are down in pre- market…

SPY is…down 36 cents…

XLF is …down 2 cents….
Euro
is up 20 pips…
TLT is …up 63 cents…


Follow your rules for entry and exit…adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up:  GOLD, COST, YHOO, BIDU, MU, AN, FCX, UCO, FAZ

Quoting Down:  AAPL, GOOG, SBUX, STX, INTC, MSFT, EBAY, FAS, X, FB, C, GRPN

Friday, December 7, 2012

DJIA, SPX Rally as Financials Breakout...AAPL Stumble Leads NDX Lower...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday… XLB, XLF, and XLP were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth
strengthened on Friday as advancers led decliners …1.22 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 43 cents at 142.41...volume 108.7 million shares…
VIX down -0.68 at 15.90…
TNX up 0.46 at 16.27…
TLT down 1.16 at 124.43…
XLF
up 12 cents at 16.02…volume 36.2 million shares

AAPL down 13.99 at 547.24…volume 28.1 million shares …
FB up 51 cents at`27.48…on volume of 51.7 million shares…

­­­__________________

Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a gap up spinning top at horizontal resistance above its 30 DMA.  The VIX closed lower and did confirm the SPY move up today.
 
The ES closed up 4.50 at 1,417.25 as the 1,400 support area held again on Thursday…NQ futures closed down 18.75 at 2,656.25 as AAPL fell to support again.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, BTU, ACI continued higher and CNX and JRCC paused as WDC continued to move big and STX paused.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Friday’s price action suggests the SPY bounce is preparing for a potential breakout which did occur in the DIA, leading to a continuation to higher levels.

The Euro closed down 41 pips at 1.2965 on Friday after bouncing at its 30 DMA.

TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved down -1.16.  XLF moved 12 cents to 16.02.


SPY – spinning top, bull flag at T1, above 30 DMA
AAPL – large black candle, lower close higher low, below 30 dma
FB – bullish harami, bull flag, BO target 29.63
FAS –bounce potential hanging man, BO higher close
AMZN – spinning top, BO setup, BO target 259.24
EXPE – inverted hammer, bull flag
STX – black candle, BO target 29.98
VIAB – large white candle BO continuation
RIMM – spinning top, BO setup
CRUS – spinning top at support, DBO setup
F – large white candle, bull flag bounce
PHM – spinning top confirms hammer, symmetrical triangle below 30 DMA
SWK – spinning top bounce in bull flag above 30 DMA
SWI – spinning top, bull flag setup
RAX – hammer, bull flag setup above 30 DMA
URI – spinning top, high close, BO setup
YELP gap bullish engulfing, bull flag setup under 30 DMA
XHB – black candle, DBO setup, below 30 DMA
XRT – gap black candle above 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above the lower reversal zone.

____________________

Chart Targets:
SPY = 143.52 short-term resistance
ES =
1,419.50…1,425 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2954, 1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ

Setups:
Bull Flag:  DECK, F, MCP, RAX, RCL, EXPE, GMCR, YELP, AKAM, EBAY, FFIV, ORCL, BIG, KAR, COH, OSK, ROVI, CHL, EXPD, PCAR, PAY,

Horizontal Setup:  JNPR, SMH, URI, AMZN, RIMM, TXN, ULTA

Diagonal Setup:  CMG, CRUS, ADSK, CRM


Moves:
Breakout: WDC, DE, STI, TER, IBM, GRA

Bounce:  GRPN, DECK, F, PXP, TSCO, TIBX, C, FAS, SWK, CTSH, EA, VMW, NKE, PCS, ACI, WLT, BTU, SHLD, AVP, CCO, FCX

____________________

46 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, CTXS, CHKP, BRCM, SNDK, VIAB, MNST, NTAP, ALTR, PCAR

Lagging NDX stocks included: GMCR, SHLD, CHRW, EXPD, PCAR, KRFT, INFY, WCRX, GILD, ESRX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included:  GRPN, LDK, TSL, YELP, ANR, FCX, CDE, DECK, ANF, HUM, F

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: NTES, SOHU, FSLR, SWKS

Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 73
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, NTAP, CSCO, EXPE, GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN,  XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, AVGO, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST,
ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, BMC, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
BBBY, CTXS

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ALXN, DLTR, KRFT, SIRI, WFM

Staying Below 30 DMA
CHRW, INFY, AAPL, NVDA, WCRX, SPLS, LRCX, ISRG, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, PNRA, INTC, BIDU, ESRX, VRSN, VRTX, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Stock Futures Rise After Jobs Report Released...146,000 New Jobs Created...



BMO – ES + 5.75 and NQ +14.50…futures are up in pre- market…

SPY is…up 59 cents…

XLF is …up 9 cents….
Euro
is down 62 pips…
TLT is …down 89 cents…


Follow your rules for entry and exit…adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up:  AAPL, GOOG, SHLD, NFLX, GMCR, AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, GOLD, QCOM, BBBY, FAS, URI, TBT, V VMW, SLB, IBM, LNKD

Quoting Down:  AVGO, SBUX, RIMM, YHOO, VRSN, FAZ