Monday, July 20, 2009
SPX, Highest Close Since November 5, 2008...
DJIA + 104.21, +1.19%
SP500 + 10.75, +1.14%
NASDAQ Comp. + 22.68, +1.20%
Russell 2000 + 7.74, +1.49%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,198 1,842
Declining 580 864
Oil $63.98 +$0.42
Gold $948.80 +$26.00
SOX 294.13 +3.64
VIX 24.40 +0.06
The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. Essentially, the VIX was unchanged.
Strongest Sectors: XLB +2.14%...XLY +2.10%...XLI +2.01%
Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.23%...XLP +0.29%...XLU +0.75%
All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Energy were stronger than the SPX +1.14%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.82%: ZION, SPG, AFL, IVZ, TROW, AXP, WFC, GS, USB, PRU, MET, ICE, CME, STT, PNC, MS and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.46%: CSCO, TXN, DELL, T, EMC, SYMC, GLW, EBAY, HPQ, YHOO, MSFT and AMAT.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
930 = horizontal
920 = horizontal end of May high
912 = 50 DMA
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
Key Earnings
Tuesday: AAPL, CAT, GENZ, MRK, MS, BTU, YHOO, WFC
Wednesday: F, GR, ISRG, MOS, UNP
Thursday: AMZN, BIDU, AXP, BNI, DECK, MSFT, MCD, NFLX, POT
Friday: BDK, WYNN
The SPX spent a second day in the 940 – 955 horizontal resistance area forming a new high close which is the highest closing price since November 5, 2008.
Technically speaking, a pullback at resistance is the most probable outcome at these price levels. However, there is a potential catalyst this week that was not present in May or June when the SPX was at this price level. What is the potential catalyst? Earnings…
Remember one of the core tenets of technical analysis is: Market Action Discounts Everything. The market will discount either up or down the earnings information as it becomes known. Until then we must remain prepared to trade in either direction.
Hundreds of companies will report earnings. After strong reports last week from GS, INTC and IBM, key stocks listed above report this week. Perhaps most pivotal is AAPL which will report after the close tomorrow. Some unexpected positive guidance for the third and fourth quarter could send AAPL and Nasdaq stocks higher and the SPX through resistance on Wednesday.
Failure to have a positive surprise could cause AAPL to sell off like GOOG did on Friday and that could be the catalyst for a pullback from resistance. AAPL has had a strong move into its earnings release and could possibly deliver the “buy the rumor, sell the news” adage.
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, MCD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
BLUD, CLB, HDB, PCP, URE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
DV, STRA
Staying Below 30 DMA
AFAM, FAZ, BKC, APEI, NTLS, SYNA, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, JOYG, MYGN, PWR, GPRO, JEC, RBN, BIIB, FLS, VAR, RIMM, SPWRA, MON, EZPW, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
3:15 pm ET - stocks have remained in a trading range in positivie territory on Monday...ES +9.25 is slightly above its opening level...AAPL rose to 155 before pulling back to 152.09...Big winners today were PWRD and FUQI...I closed a number of winning virtual trades from the different webcasts that I will summarize later today...
BMO – ES +6 and NQ +5 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. It is interesting that the ES is stronger than the NQ in pre-market trading. Watch to see if the indices make a high higher than Thursday or Friday...940 - 955 is horizontal resistance for the SPX...be mindful of the large number of earning announcements this week...AAPL is up almost $2 in pre-market trading...
Financials XLF which were the weakest sector on Friday are up in pre-market trading...
Tuesday: AAPL, CAT, GENZ, MRK, MS, BTU, YHOO, WFC
Wednesday: F, GR, ISRG, MOS, UNP
Thursday: AMZN, BIDU, AXP, BNI, DECK, MSFT, MCD, NFLX, POT
Friday: BDK, WYNN
Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
Markets Mixed on Options Expiration Friday...
DJIA + 32.12, +0.37%
SP500 - 0.36, -0.04%
NASDAQ Comp. + 1.58, +0.08%
Russell 2000 - 2.80, -0.54%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,424 1,115
Declining 1,483 1,550
Oil $63.56 +$1.54
Gold $937.50 +2.10
SOX 290.49 +3.49
VIX 24.34 -1.08
The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. Friday was the lowest close in the VIX since September 8, 2008.
Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.96%...XLE +0.58%...XLB +0.49%
Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.15%...XLF -0.65%...XLU -0.46%
SPX
Key resistance levels:
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
930 = horizontal
920 = horizontal end of May high
912 = 50 DMA
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
The SPX had its biggest one week rise and its largest trading range 68.64 points since the week of March 9 when the current uptrend began. The SPX rose from 879 to 940 on the catalysts positive earnings on GS, INTC and IBM. The reaction to the INTC earnings and management's detailed guidance for the second half of the year drew stronger buying than most expected. We stated last week that positive earnings could be the catalyst to lift the market off support and that is exactly what happened.
Even the selloff in GOOG on Friday in reaction to its earnings Thursday afternoon could not keep the NASDAQ down. AAPL was up again on Friday and along with INTC has been a driving force behind this week's rise.
Of course 940 -955 is a strong horizontal resistance area that kept the SPX from going higher in June. With the market in a sideways trend or trading range the probabilities indicate a likely pull back.
What do you see on these charts?
(click image to enlarge)
How about these?
(click image to enlarge)
And these?
(click image to enlarge)
Upward momentum slowed and then....
(click image to enlarge)
And...
(click image to enlarge)
So with the SPX and broad indices at resistance what are the catalysts for the next week?
Earnings...yes, we are still in the midst of earnings season and hundreds of companies report next week. Key companies reporting include:
Tuesday: AAPL, CAT, GENZ, MRK, MS, BTU, YHOO, WFC
Wednesday: F, GR, ISRG, MOS, UNP
Thursday: AMZN, BIDU, AXP, BNI, DECK, MSFT, MCD, NFLX, POT
Friday: BDK, WYNN
The earning reports and managements comments about the third quarter and the second half of the year will be central to the Street's action next week. The strength of the earnings and comments can either drive this market through resistance or turn the market down from resistance.
The SPX, Nasdaq and the RUT all formed an inside day on Friday with Thursday the high day. Watch Thursday's S1 level and for potential confirmation of what was essentially a bearish harami on Friday. We are on Yellow Alert on Monday
Technically the chart suggests this market is more likely to move down than up. However one of the core tenets of technical analysis states: Market Action Discounts Everything.
New information will be coming into the market next week which could drive the market higher or lower. No one can see the future so you must be ready for the break out to the upside or the selloff from resistance.
We'll see you on Monday...
How about these?
(click image to enlarge)
And these?
(click image to enlarge)
Upward momentum slowed and then....
(click image to enlarge)
And...
(click image to enlarge)
So with the SPX and broad indices at resistance what are the catalysts for the next week?
Earnings...yes, we are still in the midst of earnings season and hundreds of companies report next week. Key companies reporting include:
Tuesday: AAPL, CAT, GENZ, MRK, MS, BTU, YHOO, WFC
Wednesday: F, GR, ISRG, MOS, UNP
Thursday: AMZN, BIDU, AXP, BNI, DECK, MSFT, MCD, NFLX, POT
Friday: BDK, WYNN
The earning reports and managements comments about the third quarter and the second half of the year will be central to the Street's action next week. The strength of the earnings and comments can either drive this market through resistance or turn the market down from resistance.
The SPX, Nasdaq and the RUT all formed an inside day on Friday with Thursday the high day. Watch Thursday's S1 level and for potential confirmation of what was essentially a bearish harami on Friday. We are on Yellow Alert on Monday
Technically the chart suggests this market is more likely to move down than up. However one of the core tenets of technical analysis states: Market Action Discounts Everything.
New information will be coming into the market next week which could drive the market higher or lower. No one can see the future so you must be ready for the break out to the upside or the selloff from resistance.
We'll see you on Monday...
Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 CBST, CHL, DV, STRA, SWN, WAB, MCD Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 AFAM, CLB, URE Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, BKC, APEI, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, JOYG, MYGN, PWR, GPRO, JEC, BLUD, RBN, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, RIMM, SPWRA, MON, EZPW, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Flat Open...
9:48 am ET - Both BAC and C reported positive earnings this morning and are trading a few cents higher in early trading. The broad indices are pulling back slightly in early trading while AAPL +2.00 is trading higher.
BMO – ES -1 and NQ +1 futures are near unchanged in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. It's options expiration Friday.
Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
Thursday, July 16, 2009
SPX Moves Higher...
DJIA +95.61 +1.11%
SPX +8.06 +0.86%
NASDAQ Comp. +22.13 +1.19%
RUT +6.38 +1.24%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,077 1,677
Declining 875 972
Oil 62.02 +$0.48
Gold 935.40 -$4.00
SOX 287.00 +5.44
VIX 25.42 -0.47
The VIX moved lower and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday.
Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.84%...XLK +1.46%...XLY +1.24%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.33%...XLU +0.04%...XLV +0.64%
Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Industrials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.86%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.33%: AXP, SPG, MMC, GS, BK, AOC, ZION, IVZ, STT, TRV, MET, RF, PRU, USB, NTRS and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.46%: EBAY, AMAT, DELL, MA, ADBE, IBM, YHOO, EMC, GLW, INTC, HPQ, TXN and CSCO.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
930 = horizontal
920 = horizontal end of May high
912 = 50 DMA
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
The SPX rose to 943 before closing at 940.74. This is the SPX’s fourth highest close since November 5, 2008 only surpassed by three trading days in early June.
We have maintained for weeks that the current chart pattern was a sideways trading range. Last week when we were loudest solo voice that this was likely a head and shoulders top, most people were licking their chops on the money they were going to make to the downside.
We said in our Thursday webcast on July 9, like it or not the technical evidence does not suggest that a break of support is likely. We almost begged people to do the right thing and get long. We were almost the only up trending (what some call bullish) voice out there.
We also said that the SPX was not likely to move more than 30 to 40 points unless there was a catalyst that got buyers going. We said that better than expected earnings could be that catalyst.
What did the market do? Exactly what was most probable based on the chart. It bounced off of support, ironically with the strongest four day rise we have see since the week of March 9, the first week of the current four month up trend. The catalyst better than expected earning from GS and INTC spurring buying interest in financial and technology stocks including bands and semiconductor stocks.
We have maintained for weeks that this sideways consolidation was a trend continuation pattern and that it would most likely resolve to the upside. The SPX is back up to the 940 – 950 resistance area and will need another positive catalyst to push through the two resistance formed in early July. The most likely source again is earnings.
Thursday was a high day so it is important to realize if the market does not get another catalyst that today’s low represent an important short term support area for short term traders. While it is too early to say that Thursday’s low will be breached, we need to stay focused on it, if it is broken. Once again Yellow Alert.
Friday is options expiration so be prepared for some extra volatility.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, URE, WRC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
AFAM, CLB, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, STRA, BKC, APEI, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, JOYG, MCD, MYGN, PWR, GPRO, JEC, BLUD, RBN, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, RIMM, SPWRA, MON, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Flat to Lower Opening...
BMO – ES -1 and NQ -2 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. Jobles Claims will be out this morning at 8:30 am ET. If the report comes out better than the expected 535K, it may provide the catalyst for additional buying for the SPX to break through it 930 resistance and towards its 950 resistance area. If not this could be a consolidation day...Look for earnings later today from BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM and JPM...
Many stocks in ourt Watchlists are sitting near short term resistance similar to the SPX...
Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Thursday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
At the Open on Thursday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN –
ARO –
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
SPX 932...Highest Close Since June 12...
DJIA +256.72 +3.07%
SPX +26.84 +2.96%
NASDAQ Comp. +63.17 +3.51%
RUT +19.12 +3.85%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,754 2,266
Declining 284 480
Oil 61.53 +2.02
Gold 939.40 +16.60
SOX 281.56 +11.95
VIX 25.89 +0.87
The VIX moved higher and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX.
Strongest Sectors: XLF +4.25%...XLB +3.92%...XLK +3.75%
Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.88%...XLP +1.63%...XLU +1.99%
All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Materials, Technology, Energy and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +2.96%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF +4.25%: AXP, C, ICE, PNC, PRU, MET, IVZ, ZION and JPM and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +3.75%: INTC, CSCO, AMAT, ADBE, SYMC, HPQ, MSFT, EBAY, ORCL, GLW, MA and IBM.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
921 = Wednesday's S1/horizontal end of May high
912 = 50 DMA
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
Stocks moved higher on Wednesday as INTC had positive earnings and guidance on Tuesday evening. The market gapped up after the INTC earnings in Tuesday’s after-hours trading and futures prices kept moving higher overnight. The SPX had a strong trend day with only modest pullbacks during the day and closed near its daily high.
Propelled by INTC, the SOX closed at its highest level since June 10. A rising SOX is confirmation of the rising Nasdaq.
The SPX closed at the 930 horizontal level. A modest pullback staying above its 922 S1 level would be bullish, similar to Tuesday's pause after Monday's large rise. So far the catalyst for this week's rise has been strong earnings from GS and INTC and economic releases that contained no unbearable negative surprises.
Major Nasdaq stocks INTC, WYNN, RIMM, CSCO, AMAT, JOYG, BIDU, BRCM, ADBE, SHLD, FSLR, FWLT, MSFT, URBN, EBAY, ORCL, COST, YHOO, AKAM, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN and QCOM all moved up more than 3% on Wednesday.
Retail stocks SHLD, ARO, URBN and JOSB see Wednesday morning graphs had strong gains.
Check out the 21 stocks below that closed above their 30 DMA on Wednesday.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
Index Commentary
The DJIA moved formed a large white candle…broke above its 20, 30, and 50 DMA…three month chart target 10,340…volume was an above average 305 million shares…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The SPX formed a large white candle…broke above its 30 and 50 DMA…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The Nasdaq formed large white candle….broke above its 30 DMA…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The RUT formed a large white candle…broke above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA…3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 21
AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DECK, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, URE, WRC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, STRA, BKC, APEI, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, WCG, JOYG, MCD, MYGN, PWR, X, GPRO, JEC, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CLB, MOS, MON, SNA, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
BMO – ES +11 and NQ +25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. The CPI and Industrial Production reports will be out before the open this morning and AMR and XLNX will report earnings today.
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
URBN -
ARO -
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Market Rises Pre INTC Release - Rises More in After-Hours Trading...
DJIA + 27.81, +0.33%
SP500 + 4.79, +0.53%
NASDAQ Comp. + 6.52, +0.36%
Russell 2000 + 3.21, +0.65%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,123 1,520
Declining 882 1,140
Oil $59.52 -$0.17
Gold $922.80 +0.30
SOX 269.61 +4.32
VIX 25.02 -1.29
The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. Today was the lowest close in the VIX since September 11, 2008.
Strongest Sectors: XLY +1.56%...XLI +1.46%...XLE +1.35%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.42%...XLK +0.11%...XLP +0.30%
Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy, Utilities and Materials were stronger than SPX +0.53%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.42%: AFL, TROW, SPG, PRU, BK, NTRS, RF, SCHW, AOC, GS, JPM, MS, AXP and MET.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.11%: GLW, SYMC, INTC, EBAY, AMAT, TXN, YHOO, ADP, CSCO, QCOM, AMT and MA.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
911 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
The PPI report +1.8% was worse than the forecast of 0.8%. Retail Sales in June came in at +0.6% above the 0.5% forecast. The mixed economic news followed better than expected earnings from GS Monday evening. The SPX pulled back slightly during morning but stayed well above Monday’s S1 level before closing higher at the end of the day.
Retail related stocks like TRLG, GES, JOSB, SHLD, URBN and ARO did move higher on the better than expected report.
After the market closed INTC reported earnings with its strongest first to second quarter growth since 1988. INTC also saw a stronger second half of the year including a forecast of Q3 revenue of $8.5 billion plus or minus $400 million.
The stock rose 7%+ in after-hours trading fueling a rise during after-hours trading in other key stocks in like AAPL +$2.23 and MSFT+$0.65, SPY also rose $0.84 or +0.93% more than the 50 cent rise during trading hours. We’ll watch if the gains hold overnight on Wednesday morning.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Wednesday: AMR, XLNX
CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, ORCL, PETS, USD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, GR, HLF JOSB, VPRT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, STRA, BKC, GILD, APEI, DECK, DV, NTLS, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
BMO – ES +5 and NQ +6 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. PPI and Retail Sales report will be out at 8:30 am ET. Watch for the reaction to the reports before the open to see if the futures maintian their higher price. Better than expected reports could lead a continued support bounce, while a negative surprise could result in a pull back after Monday's large gains. Earnings continue today with ABT and INTC reporting.
Look at these Charts…
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE -
At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
ADBE - AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
JOSB –
PRU –
Monday, July 13, 2009
Buyers Take Over Create Strong Suppot Bounce...
DJIA + 185.16, +2.27%
SP500 + 21.92, +2.49%
NASDAQ Comp. + 37.18, +2.12%
Russell 2000 + 12.33, +2.56%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,527 1,952
Declining 477 722
Oil $59.69 -$0.20
Gold $922.50 +10.00
SOX 265.29 +6.25
VIX 26.31 -2.71
The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday.
Strongest Sectors: XLF +6.40%...XLB +3.04%...XLI +2.56%
Weakest Sectors: XLE +1.09%...XLY +1.52%...XLU +1.63%
All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Only Financials, Materials and Industrials were stronger than SPX +2.49%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF +6.40%: BAC, PRU, ZION, WFC, IVZ, MS, MET, C, JPM, AFL, ALL, USB, STT and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.88%: AMAT, MSFT, MA, ADBE, EBAY, INTC, IBM, AMT, AAPL, GOOG, GLW, QCOM and TXN..
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
911 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
878 = 200 DMA
870 -875 = horizontal
Financial stocks lead the broad market higher as banks, insurance and brokerage stocks make large gains.
PPI and Retail Sales Reports will be out before the market up and could act as a catalyst to move the market higher. Retail stocks related stocks like TRLG, GES, JOSB, SHLD, URBN and ARO could move higher with a better than expected report.
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
AAPL, BDX, DLTR, ESRX, ORCL, PETS, USD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
FAZ, FUQI
Staying Below 30 DMA
HLF, STRA, BKC, GILD, APEI, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
2:50 pm ET - The Bounce...did you catch it? GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, AMZN all produce nice gains from At the Open on Monday list...hope you caught some!
BMO - ES +4 and NQ +6 are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL, GOOG, QCOM and AMZN are also higher in pre-market trading. FAST which was up on Friday is lower on low volume in pre-market trading after releasing earnings this morning. Watch for a bounce or break of support and trade accordingly this morning...
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
AAPL –
GOOG -
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
FAST –
At the Open on Monday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
AAPL –
GOOG -
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
INFY –
FAST –
Friday, July 10, 2009
SPX Holds Support...
The SPX held the 870 - 875 support area on Friday as large cap Nasdaq stocks AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL, INTC, QCOM, RIMM, EBAY, CTSH and BIDU moved higher.
(click image to enlarge)
Nasdaq 100 stock INFY traded more than double average volume after a positive earnings report Thursday evening. INFY gained +4.23% on 135% volume increase.
FAST which has their earnings conference call Monday morning, gained +3.56% on a 106% volume increase.
(click image to enlarge)
DJIA - 36.65, -0.45%
SP500 - 3.55, -0.40%
NASDAQ Comp. + 3.48, +0.20%
Russell 2000 + 1.71, +0.36%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,435 1,403
Declining 1,529 1,220
Oil $59.89 -$0.52
Gold $912.50 -$3.70
SOX 259.04 +1.09
VIX 29.02 -0.76
The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday.
Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.40%...XLU -0.11%...XLI -0.14%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.33%...XLE -0.71%...XLB -0.57%
Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than SPX -0.40%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.33%: AXP, RF, MS, TRV, USB, TROW, SPG, AOC, CB, BAC, KEY, SHCW, GS, MMC, MET, AFL,BK, ALL and ICE.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.40%: YHOO, GW, SYMC, AAPL, EBAY, GOOG, CSCO, QCOM, ORCL, ADBE, DELL and AMAT.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
883 = 200 DMA
910 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
870 -875 = horizontal
The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879.
The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Monday: FAST, GS
Tuesday: ABT, INTC
PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: AMR, XLNX
CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879.
The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration on Friday.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Monday: FAST, GS
Tuesday: ABT, INTC
PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: AMR, XLNX
CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
Alert: The up coming week appears to be a pivotal week and you will need to trade with the bounce or the break, whichever occurs.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, FAZ, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
BYI, CTSH
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
DLTR, ESRX, HLF
Staying Below 30 DMA
BDX, ORCL, STRA, BKC, GILD, AAPL, APEI, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Nasdaq 100 stock INFY traded more than double average volume after a positive earnings report Thursday evening. INFY gained +4.23% on 135% volume increase.
FAST which has their earnings conference call Monday morning, gained +3.56% on a 106% volume increase.
(click image to enlarge)
DJIA - 36.65, -0.45%
SP500 - 3.55, -0.40%
NASDAQ Comp. + 3.48, +0.20%
Russell 2000 + 1.71, +0.36%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,435 1,403
Declining 1,529 1,220
Oil $59.89 -$0.52
Gold $912.50 -$3.70
SOX 259.04 +1.09
VIX 29.02 -0.76
The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday.
Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.40%...XLU -0.11%...XLI -0.14%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.33%...XLE -0.71%...XLB -0.57%
Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than SPX -0.40%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.33%: AXP, RF, MS, TRV, USB, TROW, SPG, AOC, CB, BAC, KEY, SHCW, GS, MMC, MET, AFL,BK, ALL and ICE.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.40%: YHOO, GW, SYMC, AAPL, EBAY, GOOG, CSCO, QCOM, ORCL, ADBE, DELL and AMAT.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
883 = 200 DMA
910 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
870 -875 = horizontal
The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879.
The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Monday: FAST, GS
Tuesday: ABT, INTC
PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: AMR, XLNX
CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
The SPX fell Tuesday and early Wednesday when buyer stepped in at the 870 support level and finished the week range bound between 872 and 887 closing on Friday at 879.
The market is sitting at a key support level and seems to be looking for a catalyst to bounce or break support. This next week offers plenty of potential catalysts with earnings, economic announcements and options expiration on Friday.
Key Earnings and Economic Releases
Monday: FAST, GS
Tuesday: ABT, INTC
PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: AMR, XLNX
CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: BAX, GE, GOOG, IBM, JPM
Jobless Claims
Friday: BAC, C
Housing Starts
Alert: The up coming week appears to be a pivotal week and you will need to trade with the bounce or the break, whichever occurs.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, FAZ, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
BYI, CTSH
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
DLTR, ESRX, HLF
Staying Below 30 DMA
BDX, ORCL, STRA, BKC, GILD, AAPL, APEI, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Futures Point to a Lower Open...
9:51 am ET - after a lower open ES futures are turning positive...GOOG, AAPL, BIDU, SHLD and other Nasdaq stocks leading market higher...
9:40 am ET - Key Nasdaq stocks moving higher...
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
BMO - ES - 6 and NQ -7 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. It will be important to watch this week's lows to see if support holds today. Most of the stocks we are watching seem be down a small amount in light pre-market trading.
At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX –
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
BMO - ES - 6 and NQ -7 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. It will be important to watch this week's lows to see if support holds today. Most of the stocks we are watching seem be down a small amount in light pre-market trading.
At the Open on Friday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FUQI –
GMCR –
SHLD –
FAS –
FAZ –
ESRX –
JOYG –
STT –
X –
AMZN –
AAPL –
PCLN –
BIDU –
GES –
NFLX –
PWRD –
ALGT –
Thursday, July 9, 2009
SPX Inches Higher...
DJIA + 4.76, +0.06%
SP500 + 5.38, +0.35%
NASDAQ Comp. + 5.38, +0.31%
Russell 2000 - 0.09, -0.94%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,803 1,341
Declining 1,169 1,317
The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday
Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials, Energy, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology were stronger than SPX -0.17%
Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.26%: ZION, GS, PRU, JPM, MET, C, IVZ, RF, NTRS, STT, WFC, KEY, MS, CME and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.63%: ADBE, AMT, AMAT, GOOG, EMC, GLW, DELL, IBM, MA YHOO and SYMC.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
883 = 200 DMA
910 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
870 - 875 = horizontal
PWRD big move up.
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT, PPD, AMX, DLTR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
NFLX
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
BDX, ORCL, STRA
Staying Below 30 DMA
BKC, GILD, AAPL, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
BMO - ES +7 and NQ +8 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. This could lead to a gap open on the SPX and SPY. Often on a gap up the market will cool off after about 20 minutes pull back and then resume its up ward direction. If the market does gap look for support bounce entry opportunities as price breaks the high of the low day which on the indices and many individual stock charts was on Wednesday.
Dave's Insight: Traders who allow a bearish mentality to creap into their thinking, often are not able to see the support bounce in a sideways trend opportunity until it is too late. Make every effort to see legitimate opportunities where they exist on the chart for your own benefit.
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Thursday
SPY – hammer
QQQQ – doji
FUQI – large black candle
GMCR – hammer
SHLD – black candle
FAS – hammer like
FAZ – white candle
ESRX – hammer
JOYG – hammer
STT – hammer
X – hammer like
AMZN – bullish harami
AAPL – bullish harami
PCLN – hammer like at support
BIDU – hammer
GES – hammer
NFLX – hammer
PWRD – hammer/bullish harami
ALGT – bearish engulfing
At the Open on Thursday
SPY – hammer
QQQQ – doji
FUQI – large black candle
GMCR – hammer
SHLD – black candle
FAS – hammer like
FAZ – white candle
ESRX – hammer
JOYG – hammer
STT – hammer
X – hammer like
AMZN – bullish harami
AAPL – bullish harami
PCLN – hammer like at support
BIDU – hammer
GES – hammer
NFLX – hammer
PWRD – hammer/bullish harami
ALGT – bearish engulfing
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
SPX Form a Hammer...Believe It or Not...
DJIA + 14.81, +0.18%
SP500 - 1.47, -0.17%
NASDAQ Comp. + 1.00, +0.06%
Russell 2000 - 4.57, -0.94%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,019 883
Declining 1,971 1,801
Oil $60.14 -$2.79
Gold $909.30 -$19.80
SOX 250.94 -1.79
VIX 31.30 +0.45
The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday.
Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.93%...XLY +0.83%...XLP +0.43%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.68%...XLU -0.44%...XLI -0.39%
Six of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, Technology and Energy were stronger than SPX -0.17%
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.68%: NTRS, CB, AOC, SCHW, AXP, TRV, SPG, BK, JPM, ZION, STT, AFL and MET.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.06%: ORCL, ADP, GOOG, AAPL, HPQ, EBAY, AMT, ADBE, IBM, EMC and MSFT.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
883 = 200 DMA
910 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
870 -875 = horizontal
The SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA all formed a hammer candle pattern as each formed an intraday double bottom around 12:30 and 2:30 ET. The DJIA and Nasdaq each closed slightly positive while the SPX closed slightly negative.
The SPX fell to 870 in its 875 horizontal support zone where buyers stepped in moving the SPX to an 879 close. Today is the low day. A break above the high of the low day is a potential entry signal for short term traders. Watch for a continuation of the today's support bounce and potential entry signals.
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
PWRD, FUQI, K, CPLA, BDX, STRA, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT, PPD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AMX, DLTR, ORCL
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
BKC, GILD
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NFLX, NTLS, USD, VPRT, BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down
Futures Point to a Flat Open
BMO - ES -1 and NQ -1 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. Futures were up 2 points a few minutes ago and now down slightly so they are fluctuating before the open. Remember the SPX is just above its 875 support area and the hammers on the chart Monday failed to confirm on Tuesday. If this market breaks support be prepared to trade lower. Last Wednesday's Yellow Alert that turned red on Thursday has paid off for short term traders.
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY – large black candle at support
QQQQ – large black candle broke support
FUQI – spinning top
GMCR – black candle
SHLD – large black candle broke support
FAS – black candle
FAZ – white candle at resistance
ESRX – white spinning top
JOYG – large black candle at support
STT – large black candle at support
X – black spinning top
AMZN – large black candle broke support
AAPL – large black candle above support
PCLN – black spinning top above support
BIDU – large black candle above support
GES – black spinning top inside day
NFLX – black candle above support
PWRD – black candle at support
ALGT – spinning top near resistance
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY – large black candle at support
QQQQ – large black candle broke support
FUQI – spinning top
GMCR – black candle
SHLD – large black candle broke support
FAS – black candle
FAZ – white candle at resistance
ESRX – white spinning top
JOYG – large black candle at support
STT – large black candle at support
X – black spinning top
AMZN – large black candle broke support
AAPL – large black candle above support
PCLN – black spinning top above support
BIDU – large black candle above support
GES – black spinning top inside day
NFLX – black candle above support
PWRD – black candle at support
ALGT – spinning top near resistance
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
SPX Closes Near Horizontal Support...
DJIA - 161.27, -1.94%
SP500 - 17.69, -1.97%
NASDAQ Comp. - 41.23, -2.31%
Russell 2000 - 9.78, -1.98%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 649 655
Declining 2,352 2,028
Oil $62.93 -$1.12
Gold $929.10 -$1.60
SOX 252.73 -7.51
VIX 30.85 +1.85
The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday.
Strongest Sectors: XLV -0.39%...XLP -1.24%...XLF -1.57%
Weakest Sectors: XLI -3.42%...XLB -2.85%...XLY -2.68%
All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.57%: KEY, WFC, JPM, BAC, RF, PNC, ZION, USB and NTRS.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK -2.47%: SYMC, IBM, CSCO, INTC, AMT, T, AAPL, HPQ, ORCL and VZ.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
885 = 200 DMA
908 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
875 = horizontal
Monday's hammer pattern in the broad indices did not confirm on Tuesday as the SPX broke below its 200 DMA support today and closed at 881, just above its 875 horizontal support. The broad indices are at a key support level if broken could lead to significantly lower prices including approximately 800 on the SPX.
On Wednesday we will be watching this key support level closely.
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
K, CPLA, BDX, STRA, GILD, ACN, PSYS, ESRX, MHS, BKC, SLGN, AMED, HLF, FAZ, ALGT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
PPD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
AAPL, AMX, APEI, BYI, CTSH, DECK, DV, GMCR, NTLS, ORCL, USD, VPRT
Staying Below 30 DMA
BIDU, HDB, SYNA, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down
Futures Pointing to a Flat to Lower Open...
10:20 am ET - stocks and indices continue to consolidate at Monday's support levels...look for a break above Monday's highs for entry points...
BMO - ES -3 and NQ -2 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. On Monday all four broad indices formed a hammer which is a bullish candle pattern in an up trend or sideways trend. Look for a break of the high of the hammer as entry into the next short term move up...
Look at these charts...
(click image to enlarge)
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Tuesday
SPY – white spinning top
QQQQ – hammer
FUQI – doji
GMCR – white spinning top
SHLD – piercing line
FAS – white spinning top
FAZ – black spinning top
ESRX white spinning top
JOYG – hammer
STT – white spinning top
X – black spinning top
AMZN – hammer
AAPL – hammer
PCLN – black spinning top
BIDU – hammer
GES – black spinning top
NFLX – white spinning top
PWRD – doji
CERN - hammer
ALGT - hammer
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Tuesday
SPY – white spinning top
QQQQ – hammer
FUQI – doji
GMCR – white spinning top
SHLD – piercing line
FAS – white spinning top
FAZ – black spinning top
ESRX white spinning top
JOYG – hammer
STT – white spinning top
X – black spinning top
AMZN – hammer
AAPL – hammer
PCLN – black spinning top
BIDU – hammer
GES – black spinning top
NFLX – white spinning top
PWRD – doji
CERN - hammer
ALGT - hammer
Monday, July 6, 2009
It's Hammer Time...
DJIA + 44.13, +0.53%
SP500 + 2.30, +0.26%
NASDAQ Comp. - 9.12, -0.51%
Russell 2000 - 3.18, -0.64%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,237 966
Declining 1,754 1,679
Oil $64.05 -$2.68
Gold $930.70 -$6.70
SOX 260.24 -3.57
VIX 29.00 +1.05
The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday.
Strongest Sectors: XLP +2.05%...XLV +0.78%...XLU +0.58%
Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.02%...XLB -0.80%...XLK -0.28%
Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.26%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.09%: AXP, SPG, MET, BK, ALL, NTRS, RF, PRU, AOC, GS, PNC, TRV, CB, AFL, SCHW, TROW, JPM, ICE, STT, ZION, USB and ETF UYG.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.28%: DELL, QCOM, AMAT, EMC, T, EBAY, VZ, TXN, GLW, MA, GOOG, ADP, CSCO and IBM.
Sector Watch
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLYSideways: XLE, XLV,
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
908 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
888 = June 22 weekly low
887 = 200 DMA
875 = horizontal
The SPX, Nasdaq, DJIA and RUT all formed a hammer as each found support near a MA or horizontal support. The SPX found buyers at its 200 DMA, the 886 area and then rallied to close at 898.72
At the Open on Monday
SPY – white spinning top
QQQQ – hammer
FUQI – doji
GMCR – white spinning top
SHLD – piercing line
FAS – white spinning top
FAZ – black spinning top
ESRX white spinning top
JOYG – hammer
STT – white spinning top
X – black spinning top
AMZN – hammer
AAPL – hammer
PCLN – black spinning top
BIDU – hammer
GES – black spinning top
NFLX – white spinning top
PWRD – doji
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
VPRT, K, DV, CPLA, BDX, AAPL, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, DV, STRA, GILD, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NTLS, BKC, SLGN, USD, AMED, AMX, CTSH, HLF, GMCR, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
ALGT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
BIDU, HDB, SYNA
Staying Below 30 DMA
CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, PPD, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG, AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...
1:40 pm ET - at 11:04 am ET we closed the -200 shares JOYG at 32.56 that we sold short in the Stocks TR* on Thursday morning at 34.76, resulting in a gain of 2.20 per share or $440 or 6.3%...we will review this trade on Thursday morning...(those who were there live know we went to enter the trade at just over 35 but did take the time to explain what we were doing for those unfamilar with shorting...so the explanation time resulted in an approximately 30 cent lower entry price)
1:25 pm ET - The DJIA is now positive 14 points for the day...the ES has been range bound between 882 and 892 this morning and is currently -2.50...the SPX is -1.32 and the SPY -0.30...the Nasdaq is still weak at -18 at this time...the first four hours of trading have been a trading range just above the 887 support area previously identified...the SPX has currently formed a doji indicating buyers and seller are in balance...with 2 1/2 hours to go it of course be any other kind of candle...
10:03 am ET - indices ralied for the first 30 minutes from their lower open and look to be making a small pull back at this moment...SHLD is up...I closed the JOYG puts that we placed in last Monday nights AT TR* this morning as it reached the 33 target. The order to buy 10 JOYG July 35 puts filled last Tuesday morning at 1.25...the sell order filled this morning at 9:35 am ET at 2.80, a gain of 124% in 6 days...this should make for interesting review in this evening's webcast...
BMO - ES -7 and NQ -7 are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. Watch key support areas of 887 and 875 in early trading for bounce or break. I hope every had a safe and enjoyable July 4 weekend...
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Monday
SPY large black candle
QQQQ – large black candle
FUQI – doji
GMCR – black spinning top
SHLD – black candle
FAS – large black candle
FAZ – white candle
ESRX large black candle
JOYG – black candle
STT – black candle
X – doji
AMZN – black candle
AAPL – black spinning top
PCLN – black candle
BIDU – black spinning top
GES – large black candle
NFLX – large black candle
PWRD – black spinning top
*All TR trades are real time virtual trades placed in a virtual electronic account that transacts trades using real time prices.
At the Open on Monday
SPY large black candle
QQQQ – large black candle
FUQI – doji
GMCR – black spinning top
SHLD – black candle
FAS – large black candle
FAZ – white candle
ESRX large black candle
JOYG – black candle
STT – black candle
X – doji
AMZN – black candle
AAPL – black spinning top
PCLN – black candle
BIDU – black spinning top
GES – large black candle
NFLX – large black candle
PWRD – black spinning top
*All TR trades are real time virtual trades placed in a virtual electronic account that transacts trades using real time prices.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Yellow Alert Turns to Red...
Stocks broke the low of the high day on Thursday leading to lower prices on the last day of trading before the three-day July 4 Independence Day holiday weekend.
DJIA - -223.32, -2.62%
SP500 - 26.91, -2.91%
NASDAQ Comp. - 49.20, -2.66%
Russell 2000 - 20.25, -3.91%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 512 454
Declining 2,440 2,246
Oil $66.73 -$2.58
Gold $930.70 -$10.30
SOX 263.81 -3.21
VIX 27.95 +1.73
The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday.
Strongest Sectors: XLP -2.10%...XLV -2.39%...XLK -2.52%
Weakest Sectors: XLY -4.05%...XLE -4.01%...XLF -3.46%
All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, Material and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -2.91%.
Financial stocks weaker than XLF -3.45%: PRU, SPG, AFL, MET, RF, IVZ, MS, TRV, JPM, WFC, TROW, ALL, CB, BK, PNC, AOC and ETFs UYG and FAS.
Tech stocks weaker than XLK -2.52%: ADBE, ADP, ORCL, DELL, IBM, GLW, MSFT, EMC, YHOO and EBAY.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
908 = 50 DMA
920 = horizontal end of May high
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
888 = June 22 weekly low
887 = 200 DMA
875 = horizontal
The broad indices as well as many individual stocks broke the low of the high day as our Yellow Alert turned red. A potential exit signal for short term traders.
The SPX broke the support of the 50 DMA and the S1 level of June 25 to close at 896. The sell off was broad but on light volume as DJIA volume was a below average 157 million shares. This sell off appears to be an absence of buyers rather than the sellers in strong control. This is not overly surprising in front of a three day weekend as many short term traders like to be in cash over long weekends. We’ll see on Monday if buyers reappear.
The SPX is near horizontal support levels of the past 8 weeks. The red momentum line is in the lower reversal zone suggesting approximately two out of three chances for a technical support bounce on Monday.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
BIDU, VPRT, K, DV, CPLA, SYNA, BDX, AAPL, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, DV, STRA, GILD, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NTLS, BKC, HDB, SLGN, USD, AMED, AMX, CTSH, HLF, GMCR,
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
FAZ
Moving Below 30 DMA = 19
ALGT, CBST, CHL, ESI, GES, GXDX, ICE, JCOM, JW.A, PCLN, PETS, PPD, TDG, WCG, WRC, GR. JOYG, MCD, TRLG
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X, BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...
Have a fun filled and safe July 4 Independence Day holiday weekend!
Dave with be on the Weekly Wrap today at 4:30 pm ET with Tom Sosnoff
BMO - ES -4 and NQ -6 are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. Today is the final trading day before the three day July 4 weekend. So options traders...trade accordingly. The futures have come down to the 910 support area overnight...so watch for a potential support bounce and be prepared for a support break.
Look at these Charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Thursday
SPY – tombstone doji
QQQQ – shooting star
FUQI – shooting star
GMCR – black shooting star
SHLD – black spinning top
FAS – spinning top inside day
TRLG – spinning top inside day
ICE – black candle
ESRX – white spinning top
MUR – black shooting star
JOYG – tombstone doji
STT – bearish harami
AMX – white spinning top new high
AMZN – bearish engulfing
AAPL – black spinning top
PCLN – bearish doji harami
BIDU – bearish engulfing
GES – white spinning top
SYNA – black spinning top
NFLX – bearish engulfing
PWRD – white candle support bounce +5.28%
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Tombstone Doji and Assorted Bearish Candles...
DJIA + 57.06, +0.68%
SP500 + 4.01, +0.44%
NASDAQ Comp. + 10.68, +0.58%
Russell 2000 + 9.18,+1.81%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 2,214 1,819
Declining 760 889
Oil $69.31 -$0.58
Gold $941.00 -$13.90
SOX 263.15 +3.87
VIX 26.22 -0.13
The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday.
Strongest Sectors: XLP +1.70%...XLU +1.29%...XLY +0.65%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.59%...XLE +0.04%...XLB +0.23%
Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.44%.
Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.59%:ALL, CB, AFL, STT, TRV, AOC, C, PRU, GS, SPG, MMC, NTRS, WFC, MS and ETF UYG.
Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.44%: INTC, ORCL, TXN, ADBE, MSFT, AMAT, T and CSCO.
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY
Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
Down Trending:
SPX
Key resistance levels:
930 = horizontal
944 – 956 = January/June horizontal
962 = 161.8% Fib extension
Key support levels:
920 = horizontal end of May high
910 = Thursday’s S1
902 = 50 DMA
894 = 200 DMA
888 = weekly low
875 = horizontal
The SPX reached 931.92, the nearest zone of horizontal resistance, early in the morning before selling off to close at 923 at the horizontal support area.
Thursday is the last trading day for the week. Friday begins the July 4th weekend and we wish each one of you a happy and safe weekend as you celebrate 233 years of independence.
Positives:
All four broad indices moved higher led by the RUT, small caps
VIX moves lower
SOX moves higher
INTC, ORCL, TXN, ADBE, MSFT and CSCO Nasdaq bellweather stocks close higher
Negatives:
SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA pulled back from intraday highs and closed in the lower half of their respective candle patterns
Upward Momentum was weak
BIDU, RIMM, AMZN and FSLR form a bearish engulfing or outside day pattern
AAPL gains and then retreats late in trading day
Bottom Line:
Wednesday was another high day for the DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq and RUT and did not close below Tuesday’s low. Watch for a potential break of the low of the high day on Thursday. Stay with up trending positions as long as they continue to up trend. We maintain our Yellow Alert status.
Index Commentary – Yellow Alert
The DJIA moved formed a white spinning top…Wednesday is the high day…broke above its 200 DMA…three month chart target 10,340…volume was a below average 184 million shares…closed above its 50 and 200 DMA.
The SPX formed a shooting star…broke above its 30 DMA…Wednesday is the high day…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The Nasdaq formed a tombstone doji….Wednesday is the high day…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The RUT formed a white candle…broke above its 20DMA…3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY – tombstone doji
QQQQ – shooting star
FUQI – shooting star
GMCR – black shooting star
SHLD – black spinning top
FAS – spinning top inside day
TRLG – spinning top inside day
ICE – black candle
ESRX – white spinning top
MUR – black shooting star
JOYG – tombstone doji
STT – bearish harami
AMX – white spinning top new high
X – black candle
DECK – white spinning top
AMZN – bearish engulfing
AAPL – black spinning top
PCLN – bearish doji harami
BIDU – bearish engulfing
GES – white spinning top
DLB – bearish harami
SYNA – black spinning top
NFLX – bearish engulfing
PWRD – white candle support bounce +5.28%
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Leading Stocks
Holding Above 30 DMA
BIDU, VPRT, K, DV, CPLA, SYNA, BDX, AAPL, GXDX, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, DV, STRA, GILD, JW.A, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, MHS, NTLS, BKC, CBST, HDB, ICE, PCLN, SLGN, USD, AMED, AMX, CHL, CTSH, GES, HLF, JCOM, PPD, WRC, PETS, GMCR, TRLG, ALGT, ESI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
GR. JOYG, MCD, TDG, WCG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
AMZN, MYGN, PWR, X
Staying Below 30 DMA
BAP, GPRO, JEC, NIHD, SNHY, UYG, BLUD, RBN, FAZ, AFAM, ATW, BIIB, FLS, VAR, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, CAM, CLB, MOS, EBAY, FAS, MON, RCI, SNA, URE, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, GME
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...
BMO- ES +5 and NQ 11 are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. Remember that Friday is a holiday, so there is only today and Thursday left for trading. Keep this is mind as you plan your short term trades today. Also stay focused on the 920 support area for either a break or bounce. On Tuesday 920 broke intraday as the SPX sold down to 913 and then bounced.
Look at theses charts...
(click image to enlarge)
At the Open on Wednesday
SPY – bearish engulfing
QQQQ – bearish engulfing
FUQI – white spinning top +4.65%
GMCR hanging man
SHLD bearish harami
FAS – bearish engulfing
TRLG – spinning top
ICE – black candle
ESRX – white spinning top
MUR – white spinning top
JOYG – black candle breaks low of high day
STT – bearish engulfing
AMX – bearish harami
X – black candle breaks low of high day
DECK – black spinning top
AMZN – bearish harami outside day
AAPL – doji
PCLN – black candle breaks low of high day
BIDU – bearish harami
GES – black spinning top
DLB – hanging man
SYNA – hanging man
NFLX – hanging man
PWRD - bull flag
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