SPX, DJI, NDX, RUT Closed Lower...Breadth Weakened...Short-term Support Held...Fed to Hike Rates?

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SPX -34.25, 7,585 opened and closed lower, closed 5 points above Thursday’s low.  Short-term support is holding.  Breadth weakened as decliners rose and led on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ exchanges. 

The VIX rose only 10 cents to 17.20.  What does a small increase in VIX mean to you?

RUT 2,870 fell to a 3-month low. Oil /CL rose +3.59 and closed at 105.48.  

The CME FedWatch tool gives a 92.4% probability to a 25-basis point hike.  After re-looking at the CPI chart and the categories in the release we don’t see the reason for the hike in the data.  If the Fed is data dependent, as they have claimed over the past 10+ years, the Fed Funds bond traders seem to be looking at 11 secret herbs and spices in the data.  Tom Lee offers his subjective opinion that the Fed is probably ceding to market pressures, not that the Fed thinks that’s the best course.

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                      click to enlarge - Gemini AI

    

SPX advancers: SWKS RVTY APA DINO FFIV TMO CIEN LYB QCOM DVN DGX.

SPX decliners: COIN AXON JKHY CMG CASY DLTR CBOE TTWO SYY ROL DRI.

SPY -3.49, -0.46%, above average volume of 46.1 million shares, pulled back and stayed above last Thursday’s low at short-term support, watch for a potential break or bounce. 

VIX +0.10, 17.20 closed higher.

NDX -0.65% sideways, closed lower at support.

DJI, 52,093 -0.63%, remained above Thursday’s short-term low.

Up:

Down: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM,

Mega caps NVDA, META, BRK/B, MU rose, and LLY, AAPL, TSLA, WMT, TSM, GOOGL, AVGO, MSFT, AMZN fell on Tuesday.

SPCX closed at 143.49, -4.66, on volume of 72.4 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12.  In the end if buyers are greater than sellers the stock will rise.  People seem to be willing to speculate on this company’s fundamental future. 

The SPY MFC green line is down at 52.5 price-action on Tuesday opened lower, bounced, closed below Thursday’s high, 5 points above Thursday’s low and is counter-trend defensive. -11.2

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday. 

26 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

21 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: WBD, GILD, SPCX, SNDK, KDP, MSTR, TSLA, QCOM, AAPL, ALNY, META, AMD, INTC, FANG, MSFT, ADP, APP, AZN, CRWD, FTNT, PANW,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

CPRT, GOOGL, ISRG, NFLX, PLTR, TMUS, TRI, WDAY,

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