Thursday, August 21, 2025

SPX, NDX Form Inside Day in Bull Flag Price Pattern...Energy, Basic Materials Led Sectors...Powell Jackson Hold Speech 10 am ET Friday...


© 2025


SPX -25.61, 6,370, opened lower, traded in a range, formed an inside day continuing a bull flag price pattern for a potential entry on Friday if it bounces above the high of the low dayTechnology related stocks PLTR, NVDA, AMD, META, TSLA and AVGO also traded in a range and AMD, META, TSLA and AVGO formed inside days.

Volume was lighter and breadth continued mixed on Thursday.

Former Fed staffer Julia Coronado said after the June 2024 FOMC press conference, Powell was “disciplined and vague” and “optimistic and cautious” and “I think we learned very little and that was the intention.”  If you approach Friday’s Jackson Hole Speech at 10:00 am ET with this expectation, you will likely NOT be disappointed.

Before the September 17, 2025, FOMC meeting, there will be another PCE release, a Jobs Report, CPI and PPI releases that will provide additional data for the Fed’s next decision.  If you’re hoping that tomorrow Powell will ignore those releases and tell you what the Fed is going to do in September, you’ll likely be disappointed.


NDX -0.46%, six-day bull flag pattern with an inside day.

DJI, 44,785, -0.34%, a pullback day, also in a bull flag pattern, led by weakness in GS, WMT and HD.

NVDA -0.24, -0.14%, formed a dragonfly doji and is a two-day bull flag setup.
AVGO -3.74, -1.27%, is a bounce setup or a five-day bull flag pattern.

Recent IPOs: AMBQ +3.64%, FIG -1.73%, FLY +2.21%, and BLSH +10.99%.


Mega caps GOOGL rose and BRK/B, NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, TSM, AMZN, META, TSLA fell on Thursday. 


SPY down 2.56 at 635.55, 54.5 million shares, below average volume,
VIX up 0.91 at 16.60
QQQ down 2.62 at 563.28

MRK, CVX, UNH, HON led DJIA, 7 advancers, -13
PSKY, PKG, SW, HPE led SPX, 160 advancers,
PDD, ARM, APP, BKR led NDX, 33 advancers,

Up: IWM,
Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line is down at 78.2 (below 80) and is a bull flag setup that is still below the HOLD and above short-term support or the low of the low day, defensive. -6.7

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday led by XLE, XLB and XLC. 

Uptrend sectorsXLK, XLC, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLF, XLB,
Neutral sectors: XLP, XLE, XLV, XLRE,
Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend breakout is up.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market TrendDown


33 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

36 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CSX, GOOGL, AEP, CDNS, FAST, PEP, ORLY, XEL, PDD, BKR, ROST, TMUS, APP, AZN, EA, VRTX, IDXX, LIN, AAPL, COST, KDP, MNST, GILD, MU, CPRT, REGN, ASML, BIIB, INTC, NXPI, ADP, BKNG, EXC, ADI, TXN, CMCSA,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
CMCSA,  


Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
AMGN, META, NFLX, PCAR, QCOM, TSLA,



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