SPX Falls for 9 Minutes after ISM Report...Rally Follows...

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Thursday:

• SPX falls 35 points in 9 minutes after ISM NMI 52.6 vs. 55.5 expected, prior 56.4,
• SPX then reverses from 2,856 low to close at 2910, a 54-point rally,
• Institutions buy 2,860 support area more vigorously than they did Aug 26 – 28,
• After the close, COST -4.50, -1.50%, on negative EPS reaction.

Key observation today: Institutions are still willing to buy at support.

Upcoming:

Friday morning – Jobs Report

Wed Oct 9 – FOMC Minutes

Thu Oct 10 – US/China Trade Talks resume

Tue Oct 15 – Earnings Season unofficial start with JPM, C, WFC, GS, JNJ, UNH, UAL, SCHW, JBHT, PGR, BLK, FRC, OMC, PLD reporting,

Wed Oct 30 – next FOMC Meeting Announcement

SPX closed at 2,910, down -3.69% from Sep 19th 3,021 high.  

SPX gapped through 2940 support on Wednesday and dropped from its September trading range back into the August trading range between 2822 - 2940.  It bounced at the 2860 support area today and closed 30 points below August resistance area of 2940. 

Our current technical assessment is a sideways trading range bouncing between support and resistance.  Today’s close is 90 points above 2820 support and 30 points below 2940 resistance.

The DJIA, closed up 122 points at 26,201 led by strength in BA, MCD, V, AAPL and MSFT.  Closing below 27,000 for the tenth straight day.

All eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by technology XLK +1.23% and real estate XLRE +1.19%.

SPY up 2.36 at 290.42 on 85.8 million shares, 19% above average volume.  Up on lower volume.

VIX down 1.44 at 19.12

Oil down .16 at 52.31

TLT up 1.31 at 144.92 on 13.5 million shares.

GLD up .64 at 141.90

PFE +2.16%, MCD +1.82% led the DJIA, 22 advancers, +21

LW +6.18%, MKTX +5.69% and NKTR +5.02% led the SPX.

NVDA +4.78%, WDAY +3.79%, MU +3.53% and ATVI +3.48% led the NDX.

Long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM,

Down:                                                                  

Breadth strengthened on Thursday as advancer led 1,862 to 1,068 on the NYSE and led 1,862 to 1,068 on the NASDAQ

The SPX MFC green line is below 80 and is pointed down at 54 and is short-term defensive.

Uptrend sectors: XLU, XLRE, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC,

Neutral sectors:  XLV, XLE,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Sideways

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

26 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  KLAC, AAPL, ASML, LRCX, DLTR, CTXS, NXPI, TXN, EXPE, MCHP, HAS, ROST, CTAS, ALGN, ULTA, PAYX, ATVI, CELG, CHTR, ILMN, INTC, ISRG, NVDA, PEP, SIRI, XRAY,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 10

ATVI, CELG, CHTR, ILMN, INTC, ISRG, NVDA, PEP, SIRI, XRAY,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

TSLA, WYNN,

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