Support Holds and Breadth Strengthens, FOMC Begins Tuesday, Jobs Report Friday...

Six of ten sectors moved higher on Monday …XLU, XLRE and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures dropped 1.90 to close at 46.76, its lowest close since Sep. 27.

Breadth strengthened as led 1,544 to 1,487 on the NYSE and decliners led 1,415 to 1,348 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6

Friday – strengthened, decliners led, +5

Thursday – weakened slightly, decliners led, +2

Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +4

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +2

SPY up .01 at 212.55 on 61.2 million shares, 28% below average volume

VIX up .87 at 17.06

TLT up .80 at 131.25…on 7.0 million shares, 10% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.40%, SPY +0.00%, QQQ -0.09%, DIA -0.10%%,

Oil drop pushes energy stocks lower

VIX rises for fifth straight day

IWM gains, forms MACD bullish divergence

NYSE gainers led decliners

2,120 SPX continues to hold makes higher low on Monday

FOMC meeting begins Tuesday, announcement Wednesday, expected no change

Jobs report Friday

Earning winners and losers again indicates institutional money is rotating based on earnings.  Winners included CHKP and TSO.  Losers included DO and SCTY.

SPX Leaders: DVA, L, NEM, LVLT, ESRX, DRI, UDR, NI, RCL, ROP, NRG, HST, JCI, FOSL, PSA, AIV, HPQ, IRM, QRVO, FFIV, WM, GT, M, EQR, NUE, PEG, SCG, EXC, SLG, MCK, D, ESS, FCX, AEP, MLM, ETN, EIX, AVB and LUV

Earnings Announcements

Monday – CHKP, DO, SCTY, TSO,

Tuesday – ADM, GILD, HRS, HLF, ILMN, MOS, NFX, NBL, PAYC, DATA, CAVM

Wednesday – BABA, AIG, FB, FSLR, QCOM, HSIC, SHOP, FOXA, UVE, YELP, RIG

Thursday – DDD, APA, CHTR, CS, FOSL, LVS, LBTYA, MNST, PRAA, SWKS, SBUX, SLCA, UBNT

Friday – MCHP,

EPS Positive Reactions

CHKP, TSO, RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO, CVX, FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions

DO, SCTY, AMZN, MCK, ABC, CAH, GT, ABBV, LM, COG, CA, AMGN, AET, LITE, XOM, CLF, ORLY, NEM, POT, AAPL, EW, CMG, LUV, CMCSA, UA, P, WHR, PNRA, JBLU, GM, MMM, NLSN, WAT, SHW, MAS, PNR, MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions

GOOGL, PSX, SKYW, BX, CA, TWTR, UPS, TSLA, MO, NXPI, STT, GD, KO, ESRX, VRTX, PCAR, AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: MSFT, PYPL, MAT, CTXS, TMUS, DISH, TXN, MXIM, NVDA, ULTA, SCHN, ALK, STI, ADBE, AKS, X, QCOM, NFLX, BAC, NTES, SAVE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: SCHN, UAL

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: NEM, WDC, VRSN, HAS, RCL, ADSK, AMZN, ZION, C, AAL, BIDU, NCLH, TRIP, CAVM, CCL, DO, SOXL, MDLZ, SRCL, EXPE, MDLZ, MLM

Horizontal Breakouts include: STLD, JPM, DAL, RCL,

New Highs include: DPZ, CE, GS, CMA, MS, USB, HSTY, AKAM, EXPE

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 32, defensive. 

53 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Monday.

41 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

CSX, CTXS, INTU, KHC, LRCX, MAR, SIRI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

CELG, CTSH, GOOG, WFM

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Institutional Buyers Step Up at 2,120 as SPX Rallies on Volume Increase...

Five of ten sectors moved higher on Friday …XLI, XLP and XLU were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures dropped .94 to close at 48.66.

For the week ended October 28 only four of ten sectors moved higher,

XLU +0.96%, XLP +0.42%, XLF +0.61%, XLI +0.19%, XLK -0.19%,

SPY -0.67%,

Lagging sectors XLB -0. 70%, XLE -1.17%, XLY -1.95%, XLV -2.77%, XLRE -3.39%,

YTD 209

Leading Sectors: XLE +15.00%, XLU +11.97%, XLK +10.76%, XLI +7.72%, XLB +7.62%, XLP +4.32%,

SPY +4.25%,

Lagging Sectors: XLF +2.17%, XLY -0.15%, XLRE -2.89%, XLV -5.90%

Breadth strengthened as decliners led 1,799 to 1,212 on the NYSE and led 1,581 to 1,129 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, decliners led, +5

Thursday – weakened slightly, decliners led, +2

Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +4

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +2

Monday – strengthened, advancers led +8

SPY down .63 at 212.54 on 140.6 million shares, 63% above average volume

VIX up .83 at 16.19

TLT down .29 at 130.45…on 7.5 million shares, 3% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

DIA -0.09%, %, IWM -0.28%, SPY -0.30%, QQQ -0.63

The SPX/SPY opened near Thursday’s low and move higher until about 1 pm ET when FBI announced that it was looking into additional emails that it had found that could be related to the earlier Clinton investigation.  Within the next several minutes the SPX dropped 20 points to the 2,120 area and VIX spiked over 17.  At the 2,120 area buyers stepped up and the SPX rallied ultimately closing at 2,126.

For the seventh time since September 12, institutions bought at the SPX 2,120 value area.  SPY volume jumped from 77 million on Thursday to 140 million on Friday which was 63% above average.

Five sectors gained and while decliners led advancers on the NYSE and NASDAQ, advancers increased on both exchanges.  More than 50 NDX stocks were higher and more than half the SP500 moved higher on Friday.

Earning winners and losers again dominated the largest gainers and losers on Friday.  Winners included RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO and CVX.  Losers included AMZN, MCK, ABC, CAH, GT, ABBV, LM, COG, CA, AMGN, AET, LITE and XOM.

SPX Leaders: RCL, BHI, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, EW, LVLT, ORLY, SYK, PBI, EXPE, CCL, KOR, TRIP and CVX

Institutional activity continues to indicate that last quarter’s trend on stock selectivity based on quarterly results as opposed to industry or sector rotation is a primary driver of price action.

Institutional reaction to earnings announcements continues to be the real determinate to market movement.  

Earnings Announcements

Monday – CHKP, DO, SCTY, TSO,

Tuesday – ADM, GILD, HRS, HLF, ILMN, MOS, NFX, NBL, PAYC, DATA, CAVM

Wednesday – BABA, AIG, FB, FSLR, QCOM, HSIC, SHOP, FOXA, UVE, YELP, RIG

Thursday – DDD, APA, CHTR, CS, FOSL, LVS, LBTYA, MNST, PRAA, SWKS, SBUX, SLCA, UBNT

Friday – MCHP

EPS Positive Reactions

RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO, CVX, FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions

AMZN, MCK, ABC, CAH, GT, ABBV, LM, COG, CA, AMGN, AET, LITE, XOM, CLF, ORLY, NEM, POT, AAPL, EW, CMG, LUV, CMCSA, UA, P, WHR, PNRA, JBLU, GM, MMM, NLSN, WAT, SHW, MAS, PNR, MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions

GOOGL, PSX, SKYW, BX, CA, TWTR, UPS, TSLA, MO, NXPI, STT, GD, KO, ESRX, VRTX, PCAR, AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: MSFT, PYPL, MAT, CTXS, GOOGL, TMUS, DISH, TXN, MXIM, NVDA, ULTA, SCHN, ALK, UAL, STI, ADBE, AKS, HAL

Bull Flag Bounces include: EXPE, ADSK, HAS, MLM,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: WDC, VRSN, HAS, STLD, X, ZION, C, JPM, DAL, AAL, BIDU, NCLH, TRIP, CAVM, CCL, QCOM, DO, RIG, SOXL, MDLZ, SRCL,

Horizontal Breakouts include: EXPE, DPZ, MDLZ, HSY

New Highs include: AKAM, EXPE, CE, NFLX, USB, BAC, GS, CMA, MS, NTES, SAVE, NVDA, NFLX, 

______________________

Short-term Movers for the week:

SPX gainers:  LVLT, FFIV, JNPR, BHI, FLIR, OI, FCX, COP, KEY, CTL, EMN, LMT, HSY, RCL, R, NOC, AA, PBI, BA, FLR, VLO, PFG, HBAN, TSS, SEE, CB, HBI, RSG, +4, 35

SPX losers:  GCI,  MCK, UA, EW, NLSN, ABC, CHK, SHW, NOV, LH, NRG, WAT, GT, CAH, SWN, CMG, WHR, DVA, NWSA, AVY, AMP, DVN, TDC, LM, MUR, MAC, LUV, SLG, AGN, VAR, RRC, MAS, AYI, SPG, FOSL, CBG, CXO, MRO, MHK, KIM, EFX, NWL, AN, RHI, ABBV, PNR, BXP, HOLX, O, HCA, GGP, ALLE, A, LOW, OKE, CSRA, GLW, URI, HCP, LLY, ZTS, HES, CVS, HP, MJN, -4, 87

NDX gainers:  AKAM, ALXN, WDC, MDLZ, SRCL, TMUS, CELG, NVDA, CHKP, +4, 9

NDX losers:  AMGN, ESRX, CTRP, ENDP, PYPL, AMZN, TSCO, CA, ORLY, LMCA, EA, -4, 11,

YTD: 209

SPX Leaders:  NEM, OKE, SE, FCX, URBN, ALB, XEC, SWN, HPE, PXD, (312, -9 > 10p 196, -4)

SPX Losers:  GCI, PRGO, FSLR, MCK, SIG, ABC, HRB, AGN, FOSL, RCL,

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, NTES, LLTC, QCOM, CHTR, AKAM, ULTA, TXN, NTAP, (57, -2, >10p 36, -2)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, VRTX, NCLH, REGN, SRCL, QVCA, MYL, LMCA, ALXN, ILMN

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, CVX, WMT, CSCO, JNJ, MRK, IBM, MMM, PG, (19, +0, >10p 9, -1)

DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, HD, GE, MCD, AXP, TRV, GS, KO, BA

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 39, defensive. 

53 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.

38 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

ADSK, CTSH, LVNTA, NCLH, PCLN, SRCL, TRIP, WFM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9

AVGO, COST, CSX, DISCA, LRX, MU, SBUX, SWKS, TSLA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

Earning Reactions Continue to Dominate, SPX Continues to Grind Sideways...AMZN Drops, GOOGL Up in After-hours...

Two of ten sectors moved higher on Thursday …XLV, XLF and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLRE was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .37 to close at 49.60.

Breadth weakened slightly as decliners led 2,185 to 831 on the NYSE and led 1,828 to 894 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – weakened slightly, decliners led, +2

Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +4

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +2

Monday – strengthened, advancers led +8

Friday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +3

SPY down .57 at 213.17 on 77.2 million shares, 10% below average volume

VIX up 1.12 at 15.36

TLT down 1.44 at 130.74…on 10.0 million shares, 28% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

DIA -0.13%, SPY -0.27%, QQQ -0.46%, IWM -1.14%,

SPX/SPY pulls back for the third straight day as Dow leads on strength in VZ, DD, IBM, JNJ, MRK, DIS and GS.  VIX closed higher and did confirm Thursday’s lower SPX close.  

SPX Leaders: LVLT, CTL, FFIV, ALXN, CELG, BMY, WDC, COP, SWN, COG, OI, EQT, UNM, QCOM, UHS, WAT, SEE, LUV, NBL, RRC, FTR, VRSN, VZ, HPE, DDD, MET, AKAM, FBHS, LNC, AA, AAL, MTB and DOW

Earning season continued on Thursday with both winners and losers.  Today winners included FFIV, WDC, COP and DOW, while losers included CLF, ORLY, NEM and POT.

After the close Earning Reactions:

AMZN -46.36, -5.66%

AMGN -2.27, -1.41%

BIDU -3.12, -1.78%

GOOGL +9.19, +1.12%

CRUS +3.96, +7.64%

EXPE +1.88, +1.48% 

Institutional activity continues to indicate that last quarter’s trend on stock selectivity based on quarterly results as opposed to industry or sector rotation is a primary driver of price action.

Institutional reaction to earnings announcements continues to be the real determinate to market movement.  NFLX on the upside and JNJ on the downside are just two examples.

Earnings Announcements

Monday – PCAR, SONC, TMUS, V, ZION

Tuesday – MMM, AKS, AKAM, AAPL, BHI, CMG, EW, ESRX, FCX, GM, JBLU, JNPR, KEY, LMT, P, PNRA, SAVE, UA, VLO, VRTX, WHR, 

Wednesday – BA, KO, CMCSA, FFIV, GD, NEM, NXPI, ORLY, LUV, STT, TSLA, WDC,

Thursday – AET, GOOGL, MO, AMZN, AMGN, BIDU, BX, CA, CRUS, CLF, COP, DOW, EXPE, LNKD, POT, TWTR, UPS, VRSN, SKYW

Friday – XOM, PSX, RCL, UBS

EPS Positive Reactions

FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions

CLF, ORLY, NEM, POT, AAPL, EW, CMG, LUV, CMCSA, UA, P, WHR, PNRA, JBLU, GM, MMM, NLSN, WAT, SHW, MAS, PNR, MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions

BX, CA, UPS, TSLA, MO, NXPI, STT, GD, KO, ESRX, VRTX, PCAR, AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: EXPE, FB, GOOG, FSLR, ALK, AAL, WB, SWKS, LITE, DISH, UAL, HAL, LVS, STI, NXPI, DVN, ULTA, CSX, SLCA, ADSK, ADBE, HAS, MLM, MAT, SCHW, WRK, AKS, FL,

Bull Flag Bounces include: VRSN, STLD, DPZ, SE,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: WDC, STLD, DPZ, X, ZION, C, JPM, DAL, CAVM, CCL, QCOM, DO, RIG, SOXL,

Horizontal Breakouts include:

New Highs include: AKAM, USB, BAC, GS, CMA, MS, NTES, SAVE, CE, NVDA, NFLX, SCHN, 

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 43.9, defensive. 

23 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Thursday.

39 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

ALXN, CELG, TSLA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 12

AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, CTRP, ENDP, ESRX, LVNTA, NCLH, PCLN, SIRI, ULTA,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down