Small Caps Lead Again as Rally Continues...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher and one was unchanged on Thursday…XLE, XLI and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell -.04 to close at 34.69. 

                         

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.19 to 1 on the NYSE and weakened on the NASDAQ where advancers led 1.53 to 1.

Thursday - strengthened, advancers led

Wednesday – weakened, advancers led

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

Monday – weakened, mixed

Friday – mixed, advancers led

SPY up .78 at 199.78 on 95.1 million shares, 31% below average volume

VIX down .39 at 16.70…

TNX down .18 at 18.30…

TLT up .47 at 129.43…on 6.3 million shares, 34% below average volume

XLF up .15 at 22.19…on 73.0 million shares, 16% below average volume

AAPL up .75 at 101.50 on 36.9 million shares, 20% below average volume

FB down .37 at 109.58 on 21.3 million shares, 49% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +1.05%, SPY +0.39%, DIA +0.27%, QQQ -0.19%.

Small cap IWM again led the broad market ETFs on Thursday. 

The SPX was led by gains in energy stocks including CHK, SWN, ESV, MUR, RIG, MRO and CNX.

The VIX 16.70 made its lowest close in 2016 and its lowest close since Dec 29, confirming the continuing rise today in SPX.

Last Thursday SPY broke out of double bottom resistance at 194.58 on Feb 1 with a six-week chart target of 208.07.  Monday’s pullback test was successful and old resistance became a new level of buying or new support on Tuesday.  The 208 price target which on Monday may have looked unrealistic to some now appears achievable as SPY continued higher on Wednesday.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  CF, SBUX, LRCX, BIDU, WMT, NKE, JNJ, NFLX, LUV, AMZN, EBAY, CTRP, MYL, DLTR, ATVI, FISV, KHC, XLU, MAT, DD, MAR, CTSH, NKE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: HD, XLP, XLU, UTX,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include:  TSLA, ESV, MUR, RIG, MRO, GLD, AAPL, AXP, MU, NXPI, TRIP, HOG, AVGO, SWKS, INTC, BA, UNH, JPM, C, WFC, ETFC, MS, PG

Horizontal Breakouts include: CHK, SWN, PCAR, DIS, STX, DO, CNX, SCHW

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Short-term Movers:

SPX gainers:  CHK, ESV, MRO, CNX, RRC, RIG, MUR, FCX, OKE, NFX, APA, DO, COP, WRK, HES, SIG, AMG, QRVO, NRG, NOV, HP, COG, APC, LM, THC, WMB, CPGX, SCHW, DVN, URI, MOS, CFG, HBAN, DISCA, ZION, C, FTI, TSO, RF, FITB, IP, BAC, WYNN, CXO, LNC, PSX, F, MHK, GME, CF, UNM, MPC, NWL, SNI, PRU, KMX, ETFC, CMA, SWKS, FOSL, SWN, NTRS, STI, CBS, LEN 8

SPX losers:  ENDP, POM, BF/B, DLTR, MNK, MON, EQR, CLX, ZTS, KR, PNW, MSI, NEE, ES, MYL, MDT, FSLR, PCG, MNST, DTE, AEP, ICE, PPL

NDX gainers:  BMRN, STX, BIDU, DISCA, ADSK, WDC, MU, SWKS, LMCA, PYPL, WFM, DISH, SNDK, LVNTA, NTAP, TRIP, VIAB, NXPI, BBBY  5

NDX losers:  ENDP, DLTR, MNST, CTRP, LLTC, FISV, MYL, EBAY

YTD:

SPX Leaders:  NEM, KORS, FOSL, FCX, CNX, WYNN, KMI, M, SE, COG (241, +13)

SPX Losers: DVN, WMB, ESV, MPC, RCL, URI, CBG ADS, LNC, MRO

NDX Leaders:  MAT, FAST, PCAR, PYPL, ROST, FISV, KHC, DISCK, CMCSA, HSIC   (33, +3)

NDX Losers:  INCY, ENDP, VRTX, REGN, ALXN, TRIP, JD, WDC, ATVI, TSLA

DJI Leaders:  VZ, WMT, MMM, XOM, CAT, PG, JNJ, UNH, KO, IBM (11, +1)

DJI Losers: BA, AXP, GS, INTC, JPM, PFE, DD, DIS, MSFT, V  

Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is at 94. 

46 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Thursday.

90 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

CTSH, EBAY

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

ATVI, DLTR, GILD, INCY, XLNX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up