I Was in the Right Place...Must Have Been a Bull Flag...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLE, XLU and XLK were the strongest sectors…XLV was the weakest. 

Sector Posture - all sectors are positive

Positive trend: XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV, XLY, XLU

Neutral trend near resistance:

Neutral trend near support:

Breadth strengthened…as advancers led decliners 1.35 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.04 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led

Thursday – mixed, decliners led

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led

Monday – weakened slightly, advancers led

SPY up .59 at 194.13 on 82 million shares, average volume

VIX down .38 at 12.18…

TNX up .18 at 26.04…

TLT down .06 at 112.15...

XLF up .01 at 22.61 on 28 million shares

AAPL down 1.01 at 91.28 on 54.5 million shares

FB up .21 at 64.50…on 29.4 million shares

Technical Commentary:

SPY +0.30%, QQQ +0.29%, DIA +0.20%, IWM +0.17%.

SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM along with XLB, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV and XLY each formed a bull flag price pattern this week after reaching new highs on  Monday.  XLE made a new all-time closing high.

PCLN -36.70, -2.99% fell after announcing a buyout of OPEN +34.05, +48.35% which gapped higher after the offer.  YELP +9.08, +13.79% gapped higher in sympathy. 

INTC +1.91, +6.83% gapped higher and led the NDX after raising revenue guidance due to increased business PC demand.

                       (click image to enlarge)

While the bull flag pattern is a short-term trend continuation pattern, wait for the bounce as the entry Chart Signal.

We’ll be watching AAPL for a potential bounce, XLF for continued strength and a potential bounce on dozens of bull flags next week.

                      (click image to enlarge)

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:

SPY = 196.05, 197.87, 198.99 …

QQQ = 93.02, 94.31…

IWM = 117.48, 118.48…

Support Levels

SPY = 193.11, 191.96, 190.88…

QQQ = 91.73, 90.44…

IWM = 114.66, 113.62…

Q1 Earnings Reactions

Positive Reactions – CIEN, BIG, PANW, GLNG, QIHU, AAPL, ADSK, AET, ALL, ALXN, AMAT, ANGI, ANR, APA, ATVI, BA, BHI, BIDU, BTU, BWLD, BX, C, CHRW, CNX, COG, CTRP, CTRX, CTXS,  DAL, DAVE, DDS, DECK, DHI, DNB, DO, DTV, DV, EA, ENR, ETFC, FCX, FISV, FNMA, FOXA, GE, GILD, GMCR, GME, GOGO, GRMN, HAL, HAS, HOG, HPQ, HUM, IBKR, INTC, JCP, JNJ, KO, LPNT, LRCX, LVLT, MA, MAR, MGM, MNST, MRK, MS, NOK, NTAP,NXPI, PBI, PCLN, POT, PRU, RF, S, SCHW, SCTY, SNDK, SPWR, STI, SWK, SWKS, TKR, TMUS, TPX, TRIP, TRV, TSL, TSO, TWX, UNP, URI, UTHR, VRSK, WFC, WLP, WYNN, XRX, YELP, YHOO, Z

Negative Reactions – KKD, SPLK, ACI, ADM,  AEIS, AIG, AKAM, AKS, ALTR, AMGN, AMZN, ARWR, ATI, BAC, BBRY, BIIB, BMY, BRCM, CAR, CBOE, CELG, CHKP, CLF, CLX, COF, CREE, CTSH, DDD, DIS, DISCA, DISH, DKS, DVA, EBAY, ESI, ESRX, EXPE, F, FAST, FEYE, FFIV, FXCM, GOOG, GRPN, IBM, JAZZ, JCI, JDSU, JPM, K,  KLAC, KMB, KRFT, LLTC, LLY, LNKD, LVS, LXK, MCP, MMM, MOS, MTW, MU, MXIM, NKE,NSC, NUE, NVDA, P, PCAR, PFE, PG, PNRA, PRGO, QCOM, REGN, SAVE, SEE, SFUN, SIRI, SOHU, SPLS, SSYS, STLD, STT, STX, SUNE, SWI, T, TJX, TSLA, TSN, TWTR, UA, UBNT, UNH, UPS, V, VECO, VIAB, VMW, VRTX, VZ, WDC, WFM, XLNX, YNDX, YY, ZION, ZNGA,

Reversal in progress – AEIS, AMGN, BRCM, CHKP, CTSH, EXPE, FEYE, GRPN, KLAC, KMB, LLTC, LXK, MOS, NUE, PCAR, STLD, WDC, ZION

Reversal of Initial Reaction – ADM, AIG, AKAM, AKS, ARWR, ATI, BAC, BMY, BRCM, CAR, CELG, COF, DDD, DIS, DISCA, DVA, ESRX, F, FFIV, IBM, JCI, K, KRFT, LLY, LNKD, LVS, MMM, MU, NKE, NSC, NUE, NVDA, PG, PRGO, QCOM, SAVE, SIRI, SOHU, STX, SUNE, T, UPS, VIAB, VMW, VZ, YNDX, YY, ANGI, ANR, BTU, COG, DECK, ETFC, RF, SCHW, SWK, INTC, YHOO

The SPY Market Forecast green line is in the upper zone at 87.

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Setups

Horizontal Breakout: CVX, CRM, SOHU, SPWR, UBNT, UNG, Z, SINA, SSYS, TWTR, XONE, YOKU, ESRX, SNDK, STX, YHOO

Diagonal Breakout: MCD, PFE, V, VZ, C, GLW, JCP, JNPR, NKE, QIHU, SUNE, V, LVS, X, GOOG, TSLA,

Bull Flag: SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, AXP, CAT, CSCO, DD, DIS, GE, HD, JNJ, JPM, MMM, MRK, UNH, UTX, XLB, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLV, XLY, AAL, AIG, BAC, BX, CIEN, CTRP, DAL, FAS, GOGO, JD, MFRM, MS, MTW, RAX, RCL, SCHW, SCSS, STI, SWI, TPX, YNDX, ZION, AAPL, ADBE, ADSK, AMZN, CELG, CMCSA, FB, GRMN, ILMN, MNST, NFLX, NTAP, SBUX, TRIP, ALL, BBY, BHI, CL, CNX,

Potential Bullish Divergence: IBM, PG, WMT,

Gap Up:    

Gap Down:

Bear Flag: EBAY,

At Support:       

C- Pattern:

Moves

New Highs: MU, TXN, TRV, XLE, APA, APC,

H Breakout: XOM, CREE, GTAT, LNKD, JDSU,

Diagonal Breakout: ATI, TSL, SPLK, SSYS,

Bull Flag Bounce: AA, MSFT, STX, WDC, XLU,

Gap Up: INTC, YELP, STX, WDC,

Gap Down:

Breakout Test: NTES, P,

Bounce:

MACD Divergence Bounce:  

Bear Flag:    

Support Break: PCLN,

C- Pattern: FSLR

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63 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: INTC, SRCL, AMAT, WDC, STX, WYNN, SYMC, CA, EQIX, MSFT

Lagging NDX stocks included: VIP, PCLN, MNST, SBAC, ALXN, REGN, WFM, AAPL, DISCA, SPLS

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: YELP, WLT, XONE, CREE, SCTY, TSL, SPLK, CSIQ, ESI, GTAT, LNKD,ATI, SPWR, CRM, Z, JD, P

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: BBRY

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA= 78

MAR, CHRW, EXPD, SIAL, MU, SNDK, CHTR, AAPL, CTXS, ADP, CELG, EQIX, NXPI, AVGO, ATVI, KRFT, FOXA, GMCR, ALXN, CTRX, ILMN, ADSK, NFLX, CSCO, ADBE, AMAT, HSIC, INTU, MSFT, MXIM, BIDU, CMCSA, FFIV, TRIP, BRCM, GOOG, SIRI, AKAM, AMGN, BIIB, ESRX, EXPE, LLTC, SBUX, VRTX,

VIAB, FB, ALTR, CERN, DLTR, NTAP, TXN, DISCA, REGN, TSLA, AMZN, GRMN, KLAC, NVDA, ADI, INTC, LINTA, MYL, STX, WDC, VIP, COST, ORLY, SRCL, FAST, ISRG, LMCA, TSCO, CHKP, YHOO, WFM, MNST, XLNX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

MDLZ, PAYX, PCAR, SYMC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

PCLN, SBAC                

Staying Below 30 DMA

GILD, LBTYA, MAT, VRSK, FISV, BBBY, CTSH, DTV, QCOM, ROST, CA, WYNN, DISH, SPLS, VOD, EBAY

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down