Friday, July 5, 2013

IWM New All-time High Close...Bonds Collapse...Solar Stocks Sizzle...TSLA New High...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday… XLF, XLI and XLV were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.

Breadth strengthened advancers led decliners…1.31 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.62 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – closed 4th of July
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led


SPY up 1.74…volume 122.4 million shares
VIX down 1.31 at 14.89…
TNX up 2.14 at 27.15…
TLT down 3.75 at 106.26...
XLF up .35 at 19.82…volume 37.8 million shares

AAPL down 3.38 at 417.42volume 9.7 million shares
FB down .15 at 24.37volume 20.2 million shares


Technical Commentary:
IWM + 1.41%, SPY + 1.08%, DIA + 0.99%, QQQ + 0.76%.

Small caps IWM led the rally on Friday with a new all-time high close of 99.67 indicating that institutions are buying small caps aggressively as they offer higher leverage returns for an expanding economy.  In contrast SPY, DIA and QQQ are still below their late May and late June highs.


(click image to enlarge)

The SPY MACD histogram bullish divergence bounce on June 25 again has led to a nice +2.81% gain with its close on Friday again above its 30 DMA.  SPY, DIA and QQQ all closed above their 30 DMA on Friday joining IWM which closed above its 30 DMA on Monday.

Chart Signals Wednesday comments regarding… “The past five days consolidation suggests a pause before continuing to move higher towards resistance” materialized on Friday and we still see short-term moves to resistance targets of SPX 1,675 and SPY 167.

Bonds TLT -3.71% continued to collapse hitting their lowest level since March 19, 2012.
 

Solar stocks JASO, YGE, SPWR, TSL, CSIQ and FSLR were sizzling hot on Friday as both sides of the Chinese European solar talks indicated discussions were progressing positively and that definitive terms looked to be in sight.

TSLA +4.21% made another all-time closing high at 120.09.  Reaching its short-term breakout target of 118.96 this week, the chart indicates a six-week potential price target of 141.55Enjoy the trend-ride and protect profits according to your rules.

SWI +6.76% formed a mega-white candle and is setting up a potential double bottom breakout.

Many other stocks made new highs on Friday so be sure to check out the New Highs list below


The unofficial start of earnings season is Monday, July 8 with AA reporting earnings after the close.

Earnings of Interest
Monday – AA
Wednesday – FAST, YUM
Friday – JPM, WFC



Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed up. 

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: ATVI, CELG, COST, CSCO, ESRX, GILD, NTAP, ROST, SNDK, WDC, MFRM, RCL, SCSS, TPX, TSLA, 

Diagonal Breakout: AAPL, FAST, GOOG, MYL, NFLX, NUAN, YHOO, ALK, GLW, JCP, LVS, NFLX, SPY, VECO,

Bull Flag: PWRD,   

Potential Bullish Divergence:  

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag:   

At Support:  



Moves
New Highs: ADBE, AMZN, BBBY, PCLN, SBUX, STX, CMG, CREE, F, GME, JNPR, LNKD, NTES, P, SPLK, STI, ZION,

Gap Up:  AMGN, ANGI, BAC, TBT,

Gap Down: GOLD, TLT,   

H&D Breakout: AMAT, BRCM, CTSH, INTC, MNST, SYMC, TXN, WFM, DDD, SSYS, SWI,

Breakout Test:

Bounce: ADSK, BIDU, ORCL, ATI, C, FAS, GS, TIF,  

MACD Divergence Bounce:  

Bear Flag:  

Support Break:  

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89 of 100 Leading NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  NWSA, SYMC, CHKP, CERN, BIDU, GILD, KLAC, CTXS, VRTX, ATVI, WDC, ADSK,

Lagging NDX stocks included:  GOLD, SIRI, DELL, AAPL

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: TSL, SSYS, TBT, SWI, LDK, ZION, FAS, STI, TSLA, UCO, SOHU, HLF, ANR, CREE, RCL, JDSU, A V

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  FAZ, MCP, TLT, CDE, CLF


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 57
MU, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, DLTR, ADBE, INTU, SBUX, BBBY, EXPE, GRMN, MCHP, PCLN, SNDK, SRCL, VRTX, ALTR, CA, LINTA, MAT, MNST, ORLY, PCAR, ROST, STX, VOD, VIAB, FB, LBTYA, KRFT, LMCA, CMCSA, GOOG, HSIC, DISCA, VRSK, ADP, ALXN, CHKP, CTSH, DTV, EBAY, FOSL, NTAP, SYMC, WFM, WDC, NFLX, BMC, CELG, ESRX, FISV, LLTC, XLNX, ADI

Moving Above 30 DMA = 17
AMAT, ATVI, BBIB, CERN, CHRW, COST, CTXS, EXPD, GILD, ISRG, KLAC, LIFE, MYL, NUAN, PAYX, XRAY, TXN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
SIRI

Staying Below 30 DMA
DELL, INTC, MSFT, NVDA, CTRX, ORCL, WYNN, YHOO, MDLZ, BIDU, GOLD, SIAL, REGN, AAPL, FAST, AKAM, FFIV, BRCM, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, EQIX, ADSK, AMGN, MXIM

Four-Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

TraderBobb said...

Dave:
Thank you for all the comments, observations and ideas-and the continued mentor-ship.

Robert
CANI_212