Friday, May 31, 2013

SPY Breaks Pennant Support Falls to 38.2% Fib...Kind of Random...Why That Number?...Sectors Shift...

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday…XLU, XLK and XLI were the strongest sectors…XLV was again the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened… decliners led advancers…5.59 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.57 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – Memorial Day


SPY down 2.38 at 163.44volume 176.7 million shares
VIX up 1.77 at 16.30
TNX up .40 at 21.64
TLT down 39 cents at 114.45...
XLF down 33 cents at 19.84…volume 60 million shares                 

AAPL down 1.84 at 449.73volume 13.7 million shares
FB down 20 cents at 24.35volume 35.9 million shares


Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.92%, IWM -1.10%, DIA -1.31%, and SPY -1.44%.

The ES futures have its first seven-day pullback of 2013 with Friday’s move lower closing just above its 38.2% Fib retracement level of 1,626.54.  If Friday’s level is broken the next support level is the 50% Fib retracement at 1,608.  The same relationship is also present on the SPY closing just above its 38.2% Fib retracement level of 163.14.  The SPY hit a low of 163.13, one cent below its Fib before bouncing 31 cents.  Probably just random price action in some eyes.

The broad Indexes which formed pennant patterns did have a diagonal breakout (alerted to look for Thursday) to the downside on Friday.

XLB and XLE shifted neutral while XLP, XLV and XLY shifted negative joining XLP.  XLF, XLI and XLK remain positive.  Three sectors positive, two neutral and four negative.  The current sector structure is now neutral even though the four-week plus (intermediate) term trend is still up.

Be alert for a potential break of Fibonacci support on Monday.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up with short-term trend down in a break of pennant support.  Traders should lock in profits when targets are reachedLook for potential entries in both directions according to your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.

Earnings this Week: CIEN,

EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  GES, SPLK, PWRD, HPQ, NTAP, AZO, MDT, CSCO, A, MCP, WCRX, NVDA, PCLN, GMCR, GRPN, TSLA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line closed below the Upper Zone and is pointed down.

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Setups
H Breakout:  DDD, STI, FAST, MSFT, SNDK,

Diagonal Breakout:  ANGI, BBRY, FAS, FSLR, SCSS, SCTY, SINA, SOHU, SSYS, IWM, QQQ, AKAM, AMZN, BBBY, BIDU, BRCM, CELG, EBAY, FB, FFIV, NTAP, ORCL, PCLN, YHOO

Bull Flag:  BAC, C, CNX, CREE, F, GMCR, GS, JNPR, TIF, TSLA, VECO, YELP, ZION, COST, CSCO, DTV, ESRX, GOOG, MAT, MU, MYL, SIRI, STX, WDC, WFM, XLNX,

Potential Bullish Divergence:

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag:  CRM, SWI, ADBE, ADSK, FB, TXN,

At Support:  ALK, ANR, CMG, GLW, JCP, LNKD, RCL, RAX, TLT, TPX, UAL, UNG, WLT, Z, GILD, GRMN,

Moves
New Highs:  GRPN, NTES, PWRD, XONE,

Gap Up: GES

Gap Down:  

H&D Breakout:   

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  FIVE, NFLX, SPLK, TBT,

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  GLD, NUAN,

Support Break:   ATI, SPY, AMGN, WYNN

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12 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CTRX, SHLD, FAST, AMZN, DELL, INTC, CERN, SPLS, SRCL, HSIC

Lagging NDX stocks included:  AMGN, REGN, ATVI, ALXN, VRTX, DTV, VIAB, NUAN, STRZA, WFM

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: GES, FAZ, GRPN

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  TSLA, TSL, SSYS, FAS, CLF, UCO, ICE, CDE, MCP, BBRY, LDK, X, HUM, FCX, URE, C, CMG, SLB, RCL, ANR, CREE


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 53
GILD, BIIB, YHOO, MSFT, LIFE, INTC, DTV, SBUX, VRTX, WFM, WDC, AKAM, AMAT, GOOG, NVDA, SIAL, SIRI, STX, BMC, BRCM, CA, ESRX, ORLY, PCAR, XLNX, CERN, AAPL, FOSL, KLAC, LINTA, CHKP, ORCL, EXPD, LLTC, MYL, PCLN, ADI, MU, NTAP, SPLS, ALTR, BIDU, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, FFIV, CSCO, FAST, ISRG, AMZN, CELG, CTSH, GOLD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
DELL  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 18
ADP, ALXN, ATVI, BBBY, COST, CTXS, DISCA, DLTR, EBAY, GRMN, MCHP, NWSA, PAYX, REGN, STRZA, TXN, VIAB, WYNN

Staying Below 30 DMA
LBTYA, ROST, VMED, FISV, MAT, SRCL, PRGO, MDLZ, CHRW, CMCSA, MNST, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, VOD, XRAY, EQIX, VRSK, ADSK, ADBE, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, MXIM, FB, CTRX, NUAN, INTC

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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