Friday, May 18, 2012

SPY Pulls Back as Prior to FB Trading, Euro Rises, TNX Flat...

The SPY fell again as the Euro rose, TNX interest rates remained unchanged, financial stocks fell and bonds closed just above unchanged.  The SPX closed at 1,298 just below its 1,300 support area.

All nine sectors moved lower for the second straight day on Friday. XLU, XLB, and XLI were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 3.16 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.56 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ
Advancers         730             699
Decliners         2,313          1,790

SPY moved down -1.12 to 129.74 on 319.6 million shares…

AAPL rose 26 cents to 530.38 on 26 million shares...

FB completed its IPO at $38, opened at 42.05 around 11:30 am EDT rose to a high of 45.00 and closed at 38.23.

CRM +11.78, +8.80% following earnings and guiding full year expectations higher Thursday after the close


Technical Commentary:

The SPY rose Friday morning until about 11 am EDT.  When FB didn’t begin trading stocks starting pulling back for about an hour.  FB started trading around 11:30 am EDT, about 30 minutes later that originally expected. Stocks rallied for about 45 minutes beginning just before noon, but failed to return to mid-morning highs.  After peaking around 12:40 pm EDT stocks resumed their down trend and made a new closing low since Feb 1.

The SPY reached its chart measuring distance on Friday of 129.86, for the break of support of the April 10 to May 1 range.  SPY volume was its highest level in 2012 and resembles a potential capitulation level.

Friday Highlights: 
SPY reaches support break price target of 129.86
Volume spike resembles capitulation bottom
The Euro rose 97 pips, closed 1.2778
TNX closed unchanged
VIX closed above 25 at 25.10
XLF closed down 16 cents
BAC closed up 4 cents

Next Week:

With interest rates at their lowest close and matching the lows of the past nine months, that seems to suggest the potential for a bounce in interest rates.  If rates rise on a weakening dollar and rising Euro, look for XLF and the SPY to bounce.  If the Euro breaks support expect look for XLF and the SPY to slip further.

ES horizontal support 1,290, 1,262
Euro horizontal support 1.2622
TNX at 9 month low of 17.02


14 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included YHOO, SIRI, INFY, APOL, WYNN, CTSH, TEVA, MAT, INTU, VRTX

Lagging NDX stocks included ADSK, CTRP, FSLR, STX, MU, NVDA, NUAN, MRVL, GOOG, NTAP

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included CRM, FAZ, JNPR

Losing stocks < -2.0% included MCP, GRPN, PCX, WDC, TSL, LNKD, ANR, UAL, SWKS, X, CREE, TSLA, FAS, UCO,SOHU, NTES, CDE, VECO, CIEN, RCL, CLF, SINA, A, CRUS, SWI, URE, LDK, V, STI

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 6
TLT, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, NTES

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
GRPN

Staying Below 30 DMA
LNKD, UAL, CHL, LDK, URE, CREE, TSL, STI, WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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