Thansgiving a Time to Reflect and Be Grateful...

A friend of mine, Jim Wilson, shared with me some time ago a saying he attributed to Buddha…

“Let us be grateful for we have learned a lot today and if we haven’t learned a lot today, let us be grateful for at least we've learned a little, and if we haven’t learned a little today, let us be grateful for at least we're not sick and if we are sick, let us be grateful for at least we didn’t die.”

On this Thanksgiving we have a lot for which to be grateful. 

We have our lives and good health to some degree, maybe perfectly good health.  We have family for which to be thankful.  Parents, here or that have passed on, that taught us one way or another, almost always the best of which they were capable, the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  Perhaps parents that provided for us, in our youth, at great personal sacrifice of their time, resources and personal convenience.  We each have a mother who brought us here and made our life possible.

Many of us have children that have given us the opportunity to teach them the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  In some cases those children have allowed us to learn how to sacrifice our time, resources and personal convenience. 

Perhaps we have a husband, wife or close friend that brings us the joy of companionship and lightens the load, that shares the burdens, challenges, opportunities and joys of life with us.  The one that somehow through the magic of relationships makes our life sweeter and more fulfilling.

We also have personal forefathers including grandparents, great grandparents and so on that forged personal paths that made our direct family circumstances possible.

In America we have political forefathers that forged a path, at great personal sacrifice, towards the ideal that all people are created equal and “that they are endowed by their Creator certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

We have today a free country, although faced with challenges just as it has been every year since 1776, which allows us the freedom to create and the ability to enjoy the fruits of our creation.

As my friend Steven Halpern once observed, “trading is only money, the really important things are life, health, family and friends.”

On this Thanksgiving let us be grateful, let us be thankful for all the blessings our Creator has provided and that we enjoy and let us pursue our life opportunities with our family, our friends, in our health, business and trading with the passion that each deserves.

Wishing you the best of success in all aspects of your life…Dave Johnson

If you would like to share some of your reflections on gratitude or Thanksgiving, please feel free to do so by clicking on comments below and sharing in the "Leave your comment" box...I'd love to read your insights...Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving! 

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Chart Signals Insight:  At the bottom of each end-of-day post are two lines with the Intermediate Term Trend and the Short Term Trend status as viewed by Dave.  This has been a feature on Chart Signals since the first actual post on March 31, 2008.

The Intermediate Term Trend can be from four weeks plus to six months.  If there are multiple, and there can be, Intermediate Term trends I do specify, at times, the specific trend length to which I am referring.

The Short Term Trend is typically the direction for two or more days as I see it on the chart and is not an opinion.  I have consistently and objectively changed the Short Term Trend as the market has shifted short term direction regardless of anything that I have said in webcasts or written in this blog.

I mention this today, because I sense that many people that I speak with miss the real value of the bottom two lines and especially the bottom line of each daily post.  When this direction changes you should be checking your positions to see if you should move a stop, exit a position or enter a new short term position in a different direction.  While it would be time consuming to check the Short Term Trend status over an extended period of time, I am convinced based on many discussions, if one did check it and had modified then existing trades based on the changes in the Short Term Trend status that their trading results would have improved significantly.

Okay check just one change, last Wednesday November 16, 2011. 

What if you had made changes last Thursday the day after, would it had made a difference? 

How much of a difference?

Get it?

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Markets close early at 1 pm ET on Friday.  Dave will be in the Weekly Wrap with Tom and Ben at 1:30 pm ET.  See you there...

A German 10-yr bond auction goes badly, meaning the Bundesbank had to buy 39% of the issue.  The Euro falls, the dollar rises, leading to higher bonds and lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates lead to selling pressure on financial stocks and yes you guessed it the SPX is down big.  The ideal day, as Chart Signals refers to it, of Global Money Flow.  Exactly as a trader should expect it to be when money flees the Euro and moves into the dollar.

Additionally as the dollar rises, theoretically, gold and oil prices should also fall as denominated in dollars which they did today.

All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday.  XLP -1.08%, XLV -1.46% and XLU -1.57% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was down 172 pips to 1.3340 at 5 pm EDT on Wednesday.  TNX was down -0.60 to 18.79.  TLT was up $1.19.  Financials XLF was down 33 cents.
The broad indexes moved lower for the sixth straight day with the RUT -3.15%, COMPQ -2.43%, NDX -2.25%, SPX -2.21% and INDU 2.05%.  The SPX moved down -26.25 to close at 1,161.79.

With the Euro selling off big and futures lower there was no chance at the open for a Morning Star on the SPX and there was no break above the high of the low day.  Instead the SPY and many stocks made a new low day.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 216.1 million shares, 3.7 million shares more than Tuesday.  Trading volume in many individual stocks that we watch was at least 20% below average.  Only about 10% of the stocks traded 20% or more above average.  DE was 155% of average.

The VIX moved up 2.01 to 33.98.

DE gapped higher and closed higher while GRPN fell below its recent IPO price.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Wednesday.

We learned something on Wednesday…that bullish candle patterns can and do fail when buyers fail to follow through.  Tuesday’s bullish candle patterns on AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, PCLN and QCOM all failed to follow through on Wednesday.

AAPL = Morning Star, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

AMZN = Piercing Line, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

BIDU = confirmed Hammer, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

PCLN = Piercing Line, reversed and made a lower low

QCOM = Bullish Engulfing, gapped down and made a lower low

GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, PCLN and BIDU did rally in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Flagging Stocks to Watch: UCO, GLW, HUM, FFIV, AKAM, ORLY, STX, FAST, MU

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 7.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.66 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers           358              382

Decliners          2,692           2,165       

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday FAZ, TSL, LDK, DE

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GRPN, AKS, SWKS, FAS, PCX, RCL, X, MCP, RVBD, ANR, CLF, CREE, URE, STI, A, ATI, WLT, CRUS, JDSU, CIEN, KKD, HAL, CROX, INFA, CDE, ENTR, BAC, NVDA, NTES, SNDK, SWK, ZION, TPX, SOHU, CF, ZAGG, SWN, JNPR, TIF, IL, LNKD, C, LVS, SLW, MOS, SLB, GCX, SINA, FFIV, UCO, UAL, DHR, ESI, HUM, SMH, GLW, VECO, DLR, F, CMG, CAT, UNP, CRM, ICE, GES, DOW, CSTR, NGLS, TBT

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GILD, FSLR, CERN, ESRX, APOL, CHKP and YHOO.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include SIRI, MU, SHLD, CTSH, QCOM, MRVL, WYNN, ADSK, NVDA and CTRP.

TEN NDX stocks AKAM, BIIB, DTV, FFIV, NVDA, QCOM, SBUX, SIRI, STX and VRSN moved below their 30 DMA leaving 3 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 5

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

DE

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

ATI, CDE, DLR, FFIV, GLW, HUM, NVDA, UNP

Staying Below 30 DMA

CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, NKE, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, V, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, WDC, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Deleted: FWLT

Added: TSLA

Seven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down