The Fries Have It...SPX Crashes Higher...All Sectors Up...

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Listen to Dave on tastytrade at the 121:15 minute mark: https://www.tastytrade.com/#/



Read my post below about the 1,363 SPX price target and let us know what you think?
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The SPX, INDU and RUT each went One Green Arrow and 3 Green Arrows on Wednesday.  Thirty-five NDX stocks and 25 stocks from our 30 DMA watch list also went One Green Arrow crossing above their 30 DMA.  The COMPQ and NDX closed just below their 30 DMA.

The paper trades that I did on Monday on X, VMW, RAX and JOYG are wildly successful.  Yes I did close the X puts sold Monday just after the open at .59, .56 and .55 for 2 cents today with a gain of 53 to 57 cents and approximately a 10% ROC for two days and two hours. 

The ANR and RCL paper trades placed Monday night filled on Tuesday and are doing extremely well.  The other symbols AKAM, FFIV, CTXS, JOYG, ADSK, DECK and TSLA that I encouraged you to paper trade are also making strong gains.

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday.  XLF +6.17%, XLB +5.73% and XLE +5.51% were the strongest sectors.

If news really is the primary driver of stock prices, how is it that Financials XLF has one of its biggest moves in 2011 the day after S&P lowered credit ratings on 15 global banks including JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS and MS?

You might remember that Treasury securities also had a big jump when the U.S. credit rating was lowered several weeks ago.  Is it that S&P has lost all credibility and is now considered a belated and hence contrarian indicator?

The Euro was up 133 pips to 1.3447 at 5pm EDT on Wednesday.  TNX was up +0.38 to 20.68.  TLT was down -$1.87.  Financials XLF was up 74 cents.

The broad indexes crashed to the upside continuing Monday’s strong support bounce crashing through their 10 DMA and 30DMA with the RUT +5.94% , SPX +4.33%, INDU +4.24%, COMPQ +4.17% and NDX +3.79%.  The SPX moved up +51.77 to close at 1,246.96.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY volume jumped 51% trading 300.7 million shares.

The VIX moved down -2.84 to 27.80 its lowest close since Oct 28 at 24.53.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Wednesday. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 6.87 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.62 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers        2,707           2,148

Decliners            394              464       

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday PCX, FAS, TSL, X, ANR, AKS, SWKS, LNKD, RCL, ENTR, ATI, MCP, HAL, KKD, URE, GRPN, FFIV, JNPR, WLT, C, CDE, FCX, CAT, GS, DOW, VECO, CLF, JDSU, ARUN, BAC, ZION, SLW, A, CRM, STI, LVS, SLB, SNDK, RVBD, F, ZAGG, WDC, SMH, CIEN, SINA, MOS, CRUS, VMW, NTES, NDAQ, NVDA, LDK, INFA, DE, SWK, V, UNP, GES, COH, DHR, IBM, HUM, DECK, ICE, CHL, TPX, TBT, TSLA, SWN, CREE, SOHU, CMG, CROX, HLF, POT, ANR, ESI

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAZ, CF

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included JOYG, WYNN, FFIV, FSLR, ADSK, FLEX, ALTR, LRCX, CTXS, GMCR, MRVL, ERTS, XRAY, SNDK and KLAC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include NFLX, VMED, ROST and YHOO.

Ninety seven of the NDX 100 rose on Wednesday.

Thirty-five NDX stocks including ADP, ADSK, ALTR, ALXN, AMGN, BIIB, CSCO, CTXS, DELL, DTV, ESRX, EXPE, FISV, FLIR, FSLR, GOOG, INTC, INTU,  ISRG, JOYG, KLAC, MCHP, MXIM, MRVL, NWSA, PAYX, QCOM SBUX, SIRI, SIAL,SRCL,  URBN, WYNN, XLNX and XRAY closed above the 30 DMA making 50 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 14

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, DLR, CDE, DE, FFIV, HUM, NKE, NVDA, UNP, V, WDC

Moving Above 30 DMA = 25

A, AKS, ANR, ATI, CAT, CHL, CLF, COH, CRUS, DECK, DHR, DOW, FCX, HAL, IBM, KKD, LDK, LVS, NDAQ, RCL, SLB, SLW, SWK, TSL, X

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

FAZ

Staying Below 30 DMA

GLW, INFA, NTES, RVBD, TIF CIEN, JDSU, JNPR, SNDK, VMW, ARUN, CF, CREE, CRM, SMH, SWN, URE, WLT, CMG, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open as Burger King Introduces New Fries...

 

On Tuesday Nov 22 when the SPX looked much different than it does today this question and answer appears in the comment section of Chart Signals…

Hi Dave

Since the market has tested 1188+, should the year-end rally target be revised down from 1369?

Maggi

November 22, 2011 8:37 PM

Dave Johnson said...

Maggi,

No need to revise.

A breakout chart target is a chart target. Not all chart targets are reached and not all are achieved within the time frame estimated by the time of the prior pattern.

Interestingly enough the SPX moved 200 points from Oct 4 to Oct 27, so if a higher low is reached this week and a similar 200 point move occurs in December, the SPX 1,363 chart target is still achievable within the 10 week estimate.
As traders we should just trade the chart whatever it presents us whether chart targets are reached or not.

Dave

November 22, 2011 9:38 PM

Now I suspect that among the few people who take the time to read the comments section there may have been someone who thought, “now that’s absurd, Dave has lost it, there is no way the SPX can rise another 200 points and not only that can’t he see the market is going down?”

So here we are a week later and we see that the SPX did make a higher low last week and the SPX has risen 79 points in three days and its not even December yet.

How can Dave be so confident and say what at the moment seems so absurd and within a few days it makes perfectly good sense and is so realistic?

Real world experience viewing approximately 1.6 million charts over the past 20+ years so that he gets it.  He actually gets it.

“Every day there are only Chart Signals.  We either take them or we don’t.”  Dave Johnson 

You don’t know and I don’t know if the 1,363 SPX chart target will be achieved within the 10 weeks estimated by the channel pattern…but take a moment and state in the comment section at the bottom today’s post and let Chart Signals know if you think 1,363 which is now ONLY 125 points away is realistic within the remaining four weeks.   Thank you!

I would really like to know what you think!   Post your comment Now!

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Dave will be on TastyTrade.com this morning at 9 am CST.

In a clear and obvious reaction to the news that Burger King the second largest hamburger chain introduced new thicker fries, slightly wider than a number 2 pencil with lower sodium and a crisper coating that keeps them hotter longer, ES and NQ stock futures are soaring this morning…Greece gets $10.7 billion rescue loan from Eurozone…

BMO – ES +34.00 and NQ +57.75 futures are crashing up 15 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a gap higher open…volume is heavy for pre-market with a most stocks quoting higher…Financial stocks, XLF is up 48 cents on 3,022,600 shares in pre-market at this time…

Last night ES futures were down over 12 points and this morning up 35, one of the largest overnight turnarounds in recent months…once again reiterating what I have been teaching for a long time…that low liquidity, low volume overnight trading does not predict the next morning’s open...at least not more than about 50% of the time…

TLT is down -$1.55 and the Euro is up 166 pips in overnight trading…

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higher…

Dave’s Insight for Wednesday:  higher Euro…lower bonds… Financials huge jump…setting up a crash up open …Most stocks are significantly higher in pre-market …Look for a major continuation of the support bounce that started Monday…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...TRADE THE TREND…

Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…

SPX

Resistance: 1,205, 1,216, 1,230, 1,249

Support: 1,177, 1,160, 1,146

Quoting Down – FAZ, TLT

Quoting Up – CMG, FAS, CF, DECK, CRM, ICE, HUM, FFIV, CAT, GS, SINA, IBM, VMW, NKE,UNP, WLT, ATI, DE, TPX, SOHU, SLB, FCX, URE, MOS, TIF, COH, HLF, GES, LVS, DLR, MCP, SNDK, C, X, POT, SWK, RCL, HAL, V, WDC, LNKD, ANR, ANF, DOW, A, VECO, SLW, UCO, CREE, CDE, CHL, ARUN, SWN, RVBD, CSTR, ZION, CRUS, SMH,TSLA, GRPN, STI, PCX, SWKS, JDSU, AKS, JNPR, CROX, TBT,NVDA, CIEN, TSL, BAC, F, ENTR, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN, QCOM, WYNN, JOYG, CTXS, BIIB, FSLR, CTSH, SHLD, GMCR, CERN

SPX Inches Higher as Tech, Financials Fail to Follow Through...

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Dave will be on TastyTrade.com Wednesday morning at 9 am CST.

Stocks were mixed, following Monday’s large gains, in a lighter volume trading day indicating a consolidation on some short term profit taking.  Many stocks continued Monday’s support bounce with moves to the upside including HD, LOW, PRGO, PM, CMG, COG, APA, STX, WDC and others.  AMR stock fell -83.95% to 26 cents after filing for bankruptcy protection and UAL rose +6.3%. 

Many tech stocks and financial stocks failed to follow Monday’s bounce and pulled back.  S&P lowered credit ratings on 15 global banks including JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS and MS. 

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday.  XLE +1.43%, XLU +1.09% and XLP +1.04% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was down 4 pips to 1.3314 at 5pm EDT on Tuesday.  TNX was up +0.38 to 19.96.  TLT was down 99 cents.  Financials XLF was down 6 cents.

The broad indexes were mixed after Monday’s strong support bounce and paused at their short-term resistance of the 10 DMA with the INDU +0.28%, SPX +0.22%, COMPQ -0.47%, NDX -0.58% and RUT -1.80%.  The SPX moved up +2.64 to close at 1,195.19.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 199 million shares.

The VIX moved down -1.49 to 30.64.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Tuesday. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.05 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.62 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers        1,469              966

Decliners          1,548           1,566       

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday UAL, GRPN, SINA, CRUS, UCO, WDC, ANR, HAL, SLB

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GLW, TIF, CROX, TSL, SNDK, BAC, GES, COH, LVS, SLW, IL, TSLA, CREE, VMW, X, RVBD

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included RIMM, STX, DLTR, APOL, YHOO, ROST, QGEN, EXPE, VMED and COST.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include GMCR, WYNN, NFLX, SNDK, EBAY, CTXS, CTRP, AMZN, SYMC and BRCM.

Six NDX stocks including APOL, COST, DLTR and MAT closed above the 30 DMA while four closed below, making 15 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 14

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ, DLR, CDE, DE, HUM, NKE, NVDA, UNP, V, WDC

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

 ATI, GLW

Staying Below 30 DMA

FFIV, CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +2.75 and NQ +1.75 futures are slightly higher 30 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a flat to slightly higher open…volume is moderate for pre-market with a few more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is down 3 cents on 155,200 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down 54 cents and the Euro is down 5 pips in overnight trading…

STX gaps up and TIF gaps down in pre-market trading…

NDX leaders AMZN BIDU and GOOG are quoting higher…AAPL, PCLN and QCOM are slightly lower…

Dave’s Insight for Tuesday:  flat Euro…lower bonds… Financials slightly lower…setting up a slightly higher open …Most stocks are near even in pre-market …Look for a pause near the open as the market appears to look for profit takers after Monday’s strong up day…If profit takers are few, look for the support bounce to continue…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...

Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…

SPX

Resistance: 1,205, 1,216, 1,230

Support: 1,177, 1,160, 1,146, 1134

Quoting Down – TIF, COH, GS, TLT, ATI, SNDK, HLF, FAS, SLW, ARUN, WYNN, NFLX, CELG, AAPL,

Quoting Up – STX, VECO, WDC, SINA, DECK, NKE, IBM, ESI, CMG, LNKD, UCO, WLT, POT, FAZ, VMW, CTSH, AMZN, GOOG, RIMM, VOD, YHOO, DLTR

SPX Bounces Off Support in Channel, Forms Morning Star as Financials Move Higher...

All nine sectors moved higher on Monday.  XLB +3.76%, XLE +3.74% and XLI +3.37% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was up 86 pips to 1.3318 at 5pm EDT on Monday.  TNX was down -0.09 to 19.58.  TLT was down 6 cents.  Financials XLF was up 35 cents.

The broad indexes moved higher with the RUT +4.76%, COMPQ +3.52%, NDX +3.41%, SPX +2.92% and INDU +2.59%.  The SPX moved up +33.88 to close at 1,192.55.

Friday’s non-confirmations with the lower Euro and interest rates and financial stocks up and bonds down, were signals suggesting that the current short-term down trend may be weakening.  The lower VIX compared with its Nov 9 level and the current SPX level compared above its early October low which was the last time the Euro was at its current level, were additional non-confirmations.  These combined with seven straight down days set the stage for a potential support bounce.

Record retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend created the catalyst for futures to jump higher Sunday evening and Monday morning before the open.  The SPX opened higher and held its gains into the close.

Monday became a Short-term Entry signal for many traders with the break above the high of the low day or Friday’s Inverted Hammer.

With the four week up trend coming off the Oct 4 low, followed by a pullback to the 61.8% Fib level at the 50% channel support, an inverted hammer on Friday and a three candle Morning Star on Monday, a break above the diagonal resistance line and a rising MACD histogram created a classic uptrend, support bounce, diagonal resistance breakout, rising momentum setup and entry signal.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 210.2 million shares.

The VIX moved down -2.34 to 32.13.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved higher on Monday. 

Stocks with Support Bounce Setups:  AKAM, FFIV, JOYG, CTXS, ADSK, ANR, DECK, RCL, TSLA, X, RAX and many more…

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 5.24 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.71 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers        2,600           2,130

Decliners             496              452       

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday MCP, LDK, TSL, TPX, FAS, X, ANR, KKD, CROX, DECK, RCL, AKS, JDSU, FFIV, VECO, COH, LVS, FCX, ATI, WDC, C, GES, CRM, GLW, TIF, PCX, CSTR, NVDA, CAT, CLF, ENTR, CIEN, VMW, NKE, ANF, JNPR, V, DOW, SNDK, SWK, ESI, SLW, CF, RVBD, WLT, SLB, UAL, URE, UNP, ARUN, SWN, HUM, A, CRUS, DE, DHR, POT, CREE, CDE, NTES, MOS, ICE, IL, UCO, INFA, HAL, SMH, NGLS, CMG, IBM, TSLA, NDAQ, F, ZION, GS

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GRPN, FAZ, SINA, LNKD

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included FSLR, NFLX, JOYG, FFIV, WYNN, AMZN, CTXS, ERTS, ADSK and BIDU.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include VMED, SHLD and ILMN.

Ten NDX stocks including AKAM, ALXN, BIIB, GRMN, NVDA, STX, URBN and VRSN closed above the 30 DMA, making 13 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 6

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ, DLR

Moving Above 30 DMA = 10

ATI, CDE, DE, GLW, HUM, NKE, NVDA, UNP, V, WDC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA

FFIV, CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open Following a Record Retails Sales Holiday Weekend...

A record $52.4 billion in retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend which is a jump of 16.4 % from 2010 sets the market on fire in pre-market trading and reverses the seven-day short-term down trend…look for a break above the high of the low day near the open…It’s obvious that traders are wishing this Monday morning that they had taken advantage of Black Friday’s low stock prices…too late traders need to grab those price on Friday’s half-day of trading…Stocks look poised to crash up today...

BMO – ES +35.00 and NQ +56.75 futures are higher 20 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a higher open…volume is heavy for pre-market with many more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is up 41 cents on 873,400 shares in pre-market at this time…

TLT is down $2.39 and the Euro is up 78 pips in overnight trading…

NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higher…

Dave’s Insight for Monday:  higher Euro…lower bonds… Financials leaping higher…setting up a gap up open …Most stocks are trading in the pre-market with much higher prices bouncing off horizontal support …Look for the classic break above the high of the low day entry…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...

Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…

SPX

Resistance: 1,177, 1,205, 1,216

Support: 1,160, 1,146, 1134

Quoting Down – FAZ, TLT

Quoting Up – PCLN, GOOG, MA, AAPL, AMZN, CMG, CF, ICE, FAS, IBM, NTES, CRM, VMW, FFIV, CLF, GS, CAT, WLT, DECK, SINA, URE, SLB, DE, V, UCO, NKE, UNP, FCX, POT, MOS, HAL, LNKD, COH, SOHU, LVS, TPX, DLR, TIF, GES, MCP, ANF, SNDK, RCL, X, SLW, C, A, ARUN, HLF, JNPR, DOW, SMH, SWKS, CREE, TBT, ESI, CDE, PCX, CRUS, WDC, CSTR, NVDA, GRPN, ZAGG, GLW, AKS, TSL, JDSU, CIEN, BIDU, WYNN, FFIV, NFLX, JOYG, WFM, GMCR, SHLD, CHKP, QCOM, FSLR, CELG, COST, ESRX, SBUX, TEVA, EBAY, URBN, VOD, BRCM, AKAM, ORCL, VMED, NVDA, INTC

SPX Forms Inverted Hammer as Euro Sinks Further...

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Saturday News Flash – Record spending according to ShopperTrak, Black Friday sales up 7% almost $1 billion over year ago to $11.4 billion at retail stores and malls…the largest amount ever spent on Black Friday and the largest year over year increase since 2007…a 24.3% increase for Black Friday in online spending according to IBM.  This could be a catalyst for a move above of the high of the low day on Monday.


Six of nine sectors moved lower during the half day of trading on Friday.  XLU +0.51%, XLP +0.38% and XLF +0.26% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was down 108 pips to 1.3232 at 4 pm EDT on Friday.  TNX was up +0.88 to 19.67.  TLT was down $1.78.  Financials XLF was up 3 cents.

The broad indexes moved lower for the seventh straight day with the RUT -1.21%, COMPQ -0.75%, NDX -0.72%, SPX -0.27% and INDU -0.23%.  The SPX moved down -3.12 to close at 1,158.67.

If you listened to the Weekly Wrap on Friday you heard both Tom and I, refer to the non-confirmations that are currently present.  The Euro was down, but interest rates and financial stocks were up and bonds were down, clear non-confirmations suggesting that the current short-term down trend may be weakening.

On Nov 9 when the SPX dropped 46 point to 1,229 the VIX closed at 36.16.  On Friday with the SPX 70 points lower at 1,158 the VIX closed at 34.47, more than a full point lower, an important non-confirmation. 

Also the recent low in the SPX is 60 points above its early October low which was the last time the Euro was at its current level, another non-confirmation.

The SPX was down for the seventh straight day which occurs only a small percentage of the time, which in and of itself would suggest a technical bounce next week is highly likely.

The SPX on Friday formed an Inverted Hammer which is a bullish candle pattern.  Short-term Entry signal for many traders is a break above the high of the low day or Friday’s Inverted Hammer, as I mentioned in the Weekly Wrap.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 99.6 million shares, the second lowest volume day of the year, trading just 557,000 shares more that February 8.

The VIX moved up 0.49 to 34.47.

AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Friday.  BIDU moved slightly higher.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 1.30to 1 on the NYSE and 2.38to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers        1,251              698

Decliners          1,630           1,663       

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday ZAGG, TBT, UAL

Losing stocks < -2.0% included TPX, TSL, LNKD, CF, JDSU, ESI, SWKS, NVDA, VECO, ENTR, MCP, ANR, DECK, CSTR, POT, WDC

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included ORLY, YHOO, EXPE, CTSH, CTRP, SRCL, INFY, DTV, PCAR and SIRI.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include NFLX, MU, AMZN, FSLR, BRCM, NVDA, WCRX, FFIV, MRVL and STX.

MU closed below its 30 DMA and SIRI closed above, leaving 3 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 5

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

DLR

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

DE

Staying Below 30 DMA

ATI, CDE, DLR, FFIV, GLW, HUM, NVDA, UNP, CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, NKE, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, V, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, WDC, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

Markets close early at 1 pm ET on Friday.  Dave will be in the Weekly Wrap with Tom and Ben at 1:30 pm ET.  See you there...

BMO – ES -4.00 and NQ -7.00 futures are lower 30 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a lower open…volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting down than up…Financial stocks, XLF is down 7 cents on 104,900 shares in pre-market at this time…

The Friday after Thanksgiving is generallly the lowest volume day of the year…

TLT is down 79 cents and the Euro is down 98 pips in overnight trading…

NDX leaders BIDU, GOOG and QCOM are quoting lower… AAPL, AMZN and PCLN are quoting higher…

Dave’s Insight for Friday:  lower Euro…lower bonds… Financials lower…setting up a lower open …look for lighter volume on Friday, so stocks may drift more…Many stocks are just above horizontal support, while others broke support on Wednesday…Trade you setups and always follow YOUR rules at entry, exits and stops...

Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…

SPX

Resistance: 1,177, 1,205, 1,216

Support: 1,160, 1,146, 1134

Quoting Down – CRM, VMW, RCL, FAS, SLW, TLT, DOW, UNP, MCP, CLF, POT, UCO, CMG, NGLS, V, DE, MOS, GOOG, ADP, WYNN, BIDU, JOYG, QCOM, ESRX, NFLX, CHKP, ORCL

Quoting Up – AAPL, SINA, FAZ, AMZN, INFY

Thansgiving a Time to Reflect and Be Grateful...

A friend of mine, Jim Wilson, shared with me some time ago a saying he attributed to Buddha…

“Let us be grateful for we have learned a lot today and if we haven’t learned a lot today, let us be grateful for at least we've learned a little, and if we haven’t learned a little today, let us be grateful for at least we're not sick and if we are sick, let us be grateful for at least we didn’t die.”

On this Thanksgiving we have a lot for which to be grateful. 

We have our lives and good health to some degree, maybe perfectly good health.  We have family for which to be thankful.  Parents, here or that have passed on, that taught us one way or another, almost always the best of which they were capable, the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  Perhaps parents that provided for us, in our youth, at great personal sacrifice of their time, resources and personal convenience.  We each have a mother who brought us here and made our life possible.

Many of us have children that have given us the opportunity to teach them the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  In some cases those children have allowed us to learn how to sacrifice our time, resources and personal convenience. 

Perhaps we have a husband, wife or close friend that brings us the joy of companionship and lightens the load, that shares the burdens, challenges, opportunities and joys of life with us.  The one that somehow through the magic of relationships makes our life sweeter and more fulfilling.

We also have personal forefathers including grandparents, great grandparents and so on that forged personal paths that made our direct family circumstances possible.

In America we have political forefathers that forged a path, at great personal sacrifice, towards the ideal that all people are created equal and “that they are endowed by their Creator certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

We have today a free country, although faced with challenges just as it has been every year since 1776, which allows us the freedom to create and the ability to enjoy the fruits of our creation.

As my friend Steven Halpern once observed, “trading is only money, the really important things are life, health, family and friends.”

On this Thanksgiving let us be grateful, let us be thankful for all the blessings our Creator has provided and that we enjoy and let us pursue our life opportunities with our family, our friends, in our health, business and trading with the passion that each deserves.

Wishing you the best of success in all aspects of your life…Dave Johnson

If you would like to share some of your reflections on gratitude or Thanksgiving, please feel free to do so by clicking on comments below and sharing in the "Leave your comment" box...I'd love to read your insights...Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving! 

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Chart Signals Insight:  At the bottom of each end-of-day post are two lines with the Intermediate Term Trend and the Short Term Trend status as viewed by Dave.  This has been a feature on Chart Signals since the first actual post on March 31, 2008.

The Intermediate Term Trend can be from four weeks plus to six months.  If there are multiple, and there can be, Intermediate Term trends I do specify, at times, the specific trend length to which I am referring.

The Short Term Trend is typically the direction for two or more days as I see it on the chart and is not an opinion.  I have consistently and objectively changed the Short Term Trend as the market has shifted short term direction regardless of anything that I have said in webcasts or written in this blog.

I mention this today, because I sense that many people that I speak with miss the real value of the bottom two lines and especially the bottom line of each daily post.  When this direction changes you should be checking your positions to see if you should move a stop, exit a position or enter a new short term position in a different direction.  While it would be time consuming to check the Short Term Trend status over an extended period of time, I am convinced based on many discussions, if one did check it and had modified then existing trades based on the changes in the Short Term Trend status that their trading results would have improved significantly.

Okay check just one change, last Wednesday November 16, 2011. 

What if you had made changes last Thursday the day after, would it had made a difference? 

How much of a difference?

Get it?

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Markets close early at 1 pm ET on Friday.  Dave will be in the Weekly Wrap with Tom and Ben at 1:30 pm ET.  See you there...

A German 10-yr bond auction goes badly, meaning the Bundesbank had to buy 39% of the issue.  The Euro falls, the dollar rises, leading to higher bonds and lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates lead to selling pressure on financial stocks and yes you guessed it the SPX is down big.  The ideal day, as Chart Signals refers to it, of Global Money Flow.  Exactly as a trader should expect it to be when money flees the Euro and moves into the dollar.

Additionally as the dollar rises, theoretically, gold and oil prices should also fall as denominated in dollars which they did today.

All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday.  XLP -1.08%, XLV -1.46% and XLU -1.57% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was down 172 pips to 1.3340 at 5 pm EDT on Wednesday.  TNX was down -0.60 to 18.79.  TLT was up $1.19.  Financials XLF was down 33 cents.
The broad indexes moved lower for the sixth straight day with the RUT -3.15%, COMPQ -2.43%, NDX -2.25%, SPX -2.21% and INDU 2.05%.  The SPX moved down -26.25 to close at 1,161.79.

With the Euro selling off big and futures lower there was no chance at the open for a Morning Star on the SPX and there was no break above the high of the low day.  Instead the SPY and many stocks made a new low day.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 216.1 million shares, 3.7 million shares more than Tuesday.  Trading volume in many individual stocks that we watch was at least 20% below average.  Only about 10% of the stocks traded 20% or more above average.  DE was 155% of average.

The VIX moved up 2.01 to 33.98.

DE gapped higher and closed higher while GRPN fell below its recent IPO price.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Wednesday.

We learned something on Wednesday…that bullish candle patterns can and do fail when buyers fail to follow through.  Tuesday’s bullish candle patterns on AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, PCLN and QCOM all failed to follow through on Wednesday.

AAPL = Morning Star, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

AMZN = Piercing Line, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

BIDU = confirmed Hammer, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low

PCLN = Piercing Line, reversed and made a lower low

QCOM = Bullish Engulfing, gapped down and made a lower low

GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, PCLN and BIDU did rally in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Flagging Stocks to Watch: UCO, GLW, HUM, FFIV, AKAM, ORLY, STX, FAST, MU

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 7.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.66 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ

Advancers           358              382

Decliners          2,692           2,165       

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday FAZ, TSL, LDK, DE

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GRPN, AKS, SWKS, FAS, PCX, RCL, X, MCP, RVBD, ANR, CLF, CREE, URE, STI, A, ATI, WLT, CRUS, JDSU, CIEN, KKD, HAL, CROX, INFA, CDE, ENTR, BAC, NVDA, NTES, SNDK, SWK, ZION, TPX, SOHU, CF, ZAGG, SWN, JNPR, TIF, IL, LNKD, C, LVS, SLW, MOS, SLB, GCX, SINA, FFIV, UCO, UAL, DHR, ESI, HUM, SMH, GLW, VECO, DLR, F, CMG, CAT, UNP, CRM, ICE, GES, DOW, CSTR, NGLS, TBT

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GILD, FSLR, CERN, ESRX, APOL, CHKP and YHOO.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include SIRI, MU, SHLD, CTSH, QCOM, MRVL, WYNN, ADSK, NVDA and CTRP.

TEN NDX stocks AKAM, BIIB, DTV, FFIV, NVDA, QCOM, SBUX, SIRI, STX and VRSN moved below their 30 DMA leaving 3 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 5

TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

DE

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

ATI, CDE, DLR, FFIV, GLW, HUM, NVDA, UNP

Staying Below 30 DMA

CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, NKE, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, V, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, WDC, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Deleted: FWLT

Added: TSLA

Seven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down