Monday, June 13, 2011

SPX Forms Bullish Harami as Euro Rises...

The SPX formed a potential bullish harami on Monday closing up +0.85 at 1,271.83.  Downward momentum slowed as buyers offset much of Monday's selling as the SPX rose to 1,277 which is Friday's R1 level before closing at 1,271.  Look for confirmation of the potential bullish harami with a close above the body of Monday's spinning top candle.

As the SPX continued to reach lower support levels over the past two weeks a positive began to develop last Wednesday as downward momentum in Financials began to slow.  Today XLF actually had a small support bounce closing at 14.98 just two cents above the high of the low day on Friday.  If the XLF continues to move higher this week, look for the SPX to bounce.

SPX potential bullish harami, below 30 DMA +0.07%
INDU doji, below 30 DMA +0.01%
COMPQ spinning top, below 30 DMA -0.15%
RUT spinning top, below 30 DMA -0.30%

Breadth strengthened and remained negative as decliners led advancers 1.25 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.77 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange       NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers      1,360          947
Decliners         1,700      1,679

Index      Chg.      Close     Direction     Confirmation
VIX         +0.75       19.61          Up             No – SPX
SOX        -3.72     399.08       Down          Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included GMCR, FAS, LDK, UAL, TSL

Losing stocks < -2.0% included MCP, SLW, CRUS, UCO, ANR, SINA, ATW, WLT, SWKS, ARUN, VECO, AKS, FWLT, IAG, ENTR, MOS, CY, JNPR, CIEN, X, SOHU, ATI, RVBD, UNG, FAZ, SWN, CRM, CSTR, CAM

Positives – TLT, XLF, Euro, breadth and sectors strengthened

Negatives –VIX, RUT, COMPQ, breadth remained negative, XLE, XLB, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN

Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Financials XLF +1.01% and Healthcare XLV +0.50% were the strongest sectors.

Bond ETF TLT moved down 49 cents. Financials XLF moved up 15 cents. The Euro moved up 69 pips to close at 1.4415 at 5 pm on Monday.


Bounces Moved Higher on Monday: ICE, HUM

Bounces Pulled Back on Monday: AGU, TPX, ATI, A, DHR, FCX, SLB, ESI, IAG, POT

Support Bounce Setups for Tuesday: ANF, SPY, NVDA, ATW, RVBD, ACN, ENTR, FWLT, ARUN, CY

Bull Flag Setups for Tuesday: UNP, VMW, TIF, CHL, CROX, GES, HLF, GMCR, KKD, MA, NFLX, CMG, INFA, CRM, WTW, MRVL, CF, COH

SPX
Resistance: 1,278, 1,288, 1,300
Support: 1,267, 1,257, 1,244

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL +0.70 – bullish harami, below 30 DMA
AMZN -0.24 – spinning top, at horizontal support, below 30 DMA
BIDU -3.66 – black candle, below 30 DMA
GOOG -4.77 – black candle, below 30 DMA
NFLX -1.40 – spinning top, above 30 DMA
PCLN -11.05 – large black candle, below 30 DMA
QCOM -0.20 – spinning top, below 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include SHLD, QGEN, GMCR, WCRX, DELL VOD, EXPE, ORCL, MSFT, ADP, SPLS, FAST, DLTR an WFM.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include BIDU, JOYG, BRCM, PCLN, ILMN, MRVL, VRTX, MU, WYNN, FLEX, VRSN, ESRX, LLTC and FFIV

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, DLR, TIF, TLT, KKD, FAZ, CF, UNG, ESI, AGU, HUM, NGLS, POT, CROX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
CHL
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
AKS, CRM, IAG
Staying Below 30 DMA
CMG, FFIV, GMCR, INFA, SLB, SWN, VMW, CY, V, VECO, COH, ATW, CREE, RVBD, ACN, ANF, GES, NVDA, SINA, UNP, ANR, TPX, WTW, A, CLF, CRUS, CSTR, DECK, DHR, ENTR, FCX, FWLT, ICE, SMH, SNDK, STI, URE, ZION, UAL, MHS, HAS, JDSU, JNPR, SWK, ARUN, GLW, ATI, CIEN, DOW, F, CAT, IL, NDAQ, SWKS, WDC, MCP, WLT, FAS, LVS, SOHU, UCO, DE, NETL, PCX, LDK, TSL, NTES, SLW, GS, CDE, TBT, MOS, X, CAM, BAC

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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