Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Futures Point to a Lower Open...Use Fibonacci...

BMO – ES -13.75 and NQ -19.75 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. In pre-market trading AAPL is -3.55, AMZN -1.94, GOOG -5.91, BIDU -10.28, INTC is down 29 cents, BAC is down 33 cents and GS -1.53.

Pre-market trading is being led lower by PCLN, BIDU, GOOG, AAPL, FSLR, AMZN, ISRG, WYNN and JOYG after PCLN released earnings Monday afternoon with revenues and Q2 guidance lower than expected. PCLN is another example of “priced for perfection” followed by less than perfect guidance.

XLF Financials, XLI Industrials and XLV are also leading lower this morning.

Volatility remained above 25 on Monday, so as we guided you Monday morning last week's pull back is not necessarily over.  Higher volatility means you should continue to expect bigger and quicker moves both up and down.

After an abnormally strong move up on Monday a correction is not surprising. Use your Fibonacci tool from Friday's close to Monday's high to give you a sense the magnitude of Tuesday's correction. If the correction is less than 50% use the pull back to identify support bounce entry signals.

The best guidance today is to continue to Follow Your Rules.

Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)


Bonds are higher and TLT is 52 cents higher in pre-market.

Lower after Earnings
PCLN -35.68, -14.29%, $1.70 cents EPS vs. estimates $1.66 cents
This morning's PCLN pull back is not with standing one analyst raising their price target from 260 to 315.

Trading Down: PCLN, BIDU, GOOG, AAPL, FSLR, AMZN, SHLD, ISRG, JOYG, WYNN, ICE, UYG, MA, WLT, FCX, GS, CLF, CREE, NFLX, WHR, FAS, X, CAT, AGU, BUCY, ATI, ESI, V, SNDK, URE, DE, BA, PNC, POT, UNP, TSL, UAUA, CRM, WFC, LVS, MOS, WFMI, CAM

Trading Up: FAZ, SYNA, GILD, ADSK

The short term and intermediate term trend are neutral and the long term trend is up.

Trade those charts that meet your rules in the direction of the trend.

The Euro is down 65 pips in overnight trading.
 
SPY is down $1.15 cents and XLF is down 23 cents in pre-market trading. Watch XLF as a key to any sustained move in the SPX.


Follow your rules in any trading actions today.  Be logical.

SPX
Support = 1,145, 1,125, 1,119, 1,105
Resistance = 1,155, 1,178

At the Open on Tuesday
SPY –
QQQQ –
FAS –
TLT -
FLS –
NTRI -
OSTK -
EXBD -
MA -
ILMN –
AKAM –
SNDK –
NFLX –
AAPL –
SHLD –
WHR –
ZION –
DHR –
DECK –
X –
CLF –
BA –
DOW –
BBY –
MA -
V –
PCLN –
CAT –
PCP –
CREE –

AMD –

UAUA – merger announced

UNP –

DE –

FCX –

GMCR –

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave

If you put fibs on Fri. low and Mon. high today's bounce is right on the 1/4 retracement. (I'm sure you saw this) Just wanted to let you know that we are learning. Thanks for all you do . The changes to your web sight are great.

John & Sheri