Monday, February 1, 2010

Stocks Open Higher, Close Higher in Support Bounce...

DJIA 10,185.53 +118.20 +1.17% SP500 1,089.19 +15.32 +1.43% COMPQ 2,171.20 +23.85 +1.11% Russell 2000 609.25 +7.21 +1.20% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,414 1,726 Declining 650 991 Oil $74.43 +1.54 Gold $1,104.30 +21.30 SOX 325.72 +9.65 VIX 22.59 -2.03 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Down Yes – SPX SOX Up Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLB +3.98%…XLE +3.30%...XLF +1.69% Weakest Sectors: XLV +0.58%...XLU +0.64%...XLP +0.76% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Materials, Energy, Financials and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +1.43%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,101 = October High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High Key Support Levels 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,050 = Oct 08 High Stocks, gold and oil rallied on Monday delivering the short term technical bounce that seemed probable looking at the charts at the end of last week. The rally was led by Material stocks that had fallen -14.8% over the past three weeks. More stocks have transitioned from up trending to sideways trending but there are still up trending stocks to trade should you choose. Remember the homework for a virtual trade on CREE. ATI, FCX, X, AKS, NEM, EMN, ARG, TIE and DOW all gained more than 5%. AA +4.95% just missed the cut. Financials which were relatively stronger last week were led by regional banks ZION, RF and followed by IVZ, NTRS, STT, GS, MS, TROW, ICE, PRU, KEY and SPG, all rose more than 2%. Semis also rallied led by AMD, MRVL, MU, WFR, LLTC, KLAC, STM, SNDK, NVLS, TER and NSM, all up more than 3%. Stocks continuing a support bounce: GR, PCP, ZION Stocks forming bullish haramis: BA, DE, DHR, POT, MON, MOS, SNDK Stocks above or near the High of the Low Day: AGU, AMED, BKC, CHL, CREE, FLS, HANS, IPI, MCD, PCLN, SPG, UNG Stocks with earnings still to come include: DECK, DLB, DOW, K, MA, MYGN, WHR and WLT. Guidance: The SPX bounced off the 1,075 support area and rose to the 1,090 resistance. The short term trend is neutral. The multi-week trend is sideways. The multi-month trend is up. The SPX and other broad indexes began their short term support bounce that we said was due in Friday’s post. Lower your stops on the chart on your down trending positions to protect profits if a support bounce continues. The 1,075 support area did NOT break on Monday. The next level of SPX support is still 1,044 - 1,050. Look for down trending setups on stocks that have shown reversal patterns or that are breaking support if the SPX breaks support. Also watch for potential bear flags if Monday’s rally leads to lower highs. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. Yes, there are still some up trending stocks. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to raise your stops. AAPL +2.66 QCOM +0.58 GOOG +3.07 BIDU +13.97 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, STX, MRVL, AKAM, STLD, WYNN, RYAAY, PCLN, DISH, FLEX, FSLR, LLTC, DTV, KLAC, BIDU, NTAP, FWLT,EXPE, BRCM, URBN, JOYG, ERTS, AMAT, MCHP, CERN, ALTR, MICC, LBTYA, DELL, VRTX, MXIM, CTSH, SYMC, HANS, ESRX, SBUX, NIHD and LRCX. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, AMED, GMCR, HANS, VAR, BA, CEDC, ZION, K, FAZ, DLB, WFC, NFLX, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 CHL, MCD, CREE Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA ESI, SNDK, DECK, HANS, JEC, MA, UAUA, BYI, ACN, FLS, TDG, UNG, BUCY, DE, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UNP, UYG, X, ATW, CAM, HDB, MHS, MOS, PCP, GR, URE, GS, HEAT, WHR, CAT, FCX, BAC, DHR, AGU, FUQI, ICE, IPI, SWN, USO, WLT, WMT, BKC, WAB, USD, PWRD, AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, POT, TSL, BDX, MYGN, WCG, SPG, GME, MELI, PCLN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 3 months, Up = 10 month Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't understand - Lower your stops on the chart on your down trending positions to protect profits if a support bounce continues.
Can anyone help explain?
Thanks, Linda W

Dave Johnson said...

Linda,

Visually on the chart, this is why I say "on the chart" not on the value of say your put option or short position. If you had a stop on the chart at 34 (above resistance)and the stock fell to 31you may lower the stop to 32.50 on the chart.

Cheers,

Dave

Anonymous said...

Ahhh... got it... thanks so much.
Linda W.