Monday, February 8, 2010

SPX Pulls Back...Forms Higher Low and Lower Close

DJIA 9,908.39 -103.84 -1.04% SP500 1,056.74 -9.45 -0.89% COMPQ 2,126.05 -15.07 -0.70% Russell 2000 586.49 -6.49 -1.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,080 944 Declining 1,963 1,722 Oil $71.89 +1.69 Gold $1,065.70 +13.50 SOX 318.86 -1.15 VIX 26.51 +0.40 Index Direction Confirmation VIX Up Yes – SPX SOX Down Yes – COMPQ Strongest Sectors: XLP -0.12%…XLK -0.43%...XLV -0.49% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.01%...XLB -1.61%...XLU -1.14% All nine sectors moved lower on Friday. Consumer Staples, Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.89%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: Sideways: XLF, XLE Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Key Support Levels 1,044 - 1,050 = Oct 08 High The SPX started higher but turned lower giving back some of Friday’s late gains. While index formed a lower close, each made both a higher high and higher low for the day. Guidance: The SPX is closed above 1,044 support and did NOT confirm Friday’s hammer. See Friday’s post for a chart and explanation of Friday’s large hammer in comparison with June 2006. Look for confirmation of the hammer on Tuesday. Be prepared for either a short term rally or a break of support. The short term trend is down. The four-month trend is sideways. The twelve-month trend is up. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. You are likely to see more bearish setups than bullish at this time, be willing to trade them according to your rules. There are a few up trending stocks. If you have not yet been stopped out of your up trending positions, continue to raise your stops. AAPL -1.34 QCOM -0.53 GOOG +2.18 BIDU -5.57 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NIHD, PCLN, ERTS, XRAY, DELL, CERN, SBUX, STX, CEPH, CTXS, EXPE, CTAS, ILMN, NTAP, GOOG, INFY, ADP, TEVA, URBN, MICC, CTSH, PDCO, ADSK, LIFE, HOLX and BBBY. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA ALGT, CBST, ZION, FAZ, DLB, NFLX Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 AMED Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 CEDC, GMCR, MCD Staying Below 30 DMA BA, VAR, CHL, CREE, K, MYGN, TDG, UAUA, VPRT, WFC, WHR, WMT, GR, ESI, SNDK, DECK, HANS, JEC, MA, BYI, ACN, FLS, UNG, BUCY, DE, DOW, FAS, HLF, SYNA, UNP, UYG, X, ATW, CAM, HDB, MHS, MOS, PCP, URE, GS, HEAT, CAT, FCX, BAC, DHR, AGU, FUQI, ICE, IPI, SWN, USO, WLT, BKC, WAB, USD, PWRD, AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, POT, TSL, BDX, WCG, SPG, GME, MELI, PCLN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral = 3 months, Up = 10 month Short Term Market Trend: Down

2 comments:

Brian McAllister said...

Dave,

Great Capstone tonight. I loved the approach on the SPY . . . both a bearish and bullish play depending on the student's bias. Also have enjoyed comparing the 2003/2009 and 2004/2010 periods at your suggestion. It is so interesting how these periods suggest certain possibilities. Entered an iron condor and a bearish position today. In both cases took 1/2 normal position sizes. It seemed the prudent approach given market volatility and how easily it is to be proven wrong recently. As 2008 and early 2009 was a great time to learn, I wonder if 2010 won't also be an excellent learning opportunity if we have lots of volatility within a range. I look forward to learning more from you. Thanks for all you do.

Brian

Anonymous said...

Dave,

I like your approach in teaching trading. A trader must follow rules, and be a study of the market, and be prepared for what ever it gives us. Thank you for all the great information you provide, a library of books.

Jim E.