Tuesday, April 1, 2008

No Foolin' All Day Long - A Huge Short Term Trend Change

DJIA +391.47, +3.19% SP500 + 47.48, +3.59% NASDAQ Comp. + 83.65, +3.67% Russell 2000 + 22.68, +3.30% Perhaps the only April Fools joke is on those traders who fail to watch the trend and have been more bearish than the chart. I have heard many say during the past few weeks they were bearish and that the recent rally (last week) was suspect because of low volume. I heard it so loud on one day last week I actually looked at the volume on all 30 Dow stocks and found that volume that day was average to above average on more than two thirds of those 30 stocks. Let’s be very clear here the intermediate term trend in the broad market has been for more than two months and still is today sideways. With the breakout above yesterday’s high the short-term trend is now up. A change that we alerted you to watch for in last night’s post. It will take a successful breakout above the resistance of 12,750 on the Dow, 1,400 on the S&P 500, 2,400 on the NASDAQ Composite and 730 on the Russell 2000 to correctly identify the intermediate term trend as up. Don’t be caught off guard if the indices break those resistance levels in the next several trading days. In the meantime the intermediate trend is sideways. Dave's Insight: "Don't trade what the talking heads say, trade the Chart Signals." Today’s Action VRTX up another $1.52, +6.36% today URBN up $1.64, +5.23%, mentioned in yesterday’s audio comments that the Apr 25 call priced 6.45 (18 minutes prior to the close), closed today at $8.10, + 25% CAT up $1.69, +2.16% AFL up $1.87, +2.88% There were plenty of Chart Signals today and for many traders, ETF's may provide the easiest way to trade quickly on large movement days like today. You will notice several ETF's in today's posting. Be aware that with the first quarter ending yesterday many companies will be reporting their quarterly earnings over the next 4 to 6 weeks. RIMM is scheduled to report tomorrow, Wednesday, April 2.

In addition to AMZN, IBM, PCLN, PRGO posted 30 minutes before the close the following charts had signals. Support Bounce ADBE EWT EWZ FWLT MDY SHLD TSN WY Support Bounce and Breakout AIG – Inverse Head & Shoulder DIA IWM IYR QQQQ SPY WYNN Breakouts AMLN EBAY ESRX FSLR ISRG X XLI WMT 30 DMA Breakouts AXP EXPE FXI EEM EWH NVDA SNDK WFMI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

3 comments:

Phil said...

Wow, that's amazing stuff Dave. And after only a day!

Keep your eyes on the chart signals!

Dave Johnson said...

Phil, "we've only just begun..."

Anonymous said...

Using SPY as a proxy for the market, it needs to break out over the downtrending line that connects the tops from Feb's highs to confirm an intermediate bullish trend.

--AssetStrategists