SPX, SPY, DIA Make All-time Closing Highs, Breadth Strengthens...Industrials, Basic Materials, Consumer Discretionary Lead Sectors...Earnings Season Continues...

© 2024

The SPX +35.98, 5,667, opened higher and closed at a new all-time high and its fourth close above 5,600. The NDX +0.06% also closed higher.  DIA and SPY each made a new all-time closing high on Tuesday as breadth strengthens. 

Fed’s Kugler spoke on Tuesday. 

TSLA +3.92, +1.55%, opened slightly higher, traded in a range and closed higher.

Earnings season’s continues this week with 46 SPX companies reporting.  CFG, ELV, JNJ, NTRS, PLD, SYF, USB report BMO and CCI, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, STLD and UAL report AMC on Wednesday.

First day reaction: Q1

Positive:  STT, UNH, BAC, PNC, GS, BK, FAST= 7

Neutral: MS, BLK = 2

Negative:  SCHW, PGR, WFC, C, JPM = 5

Mega caps TSLA, AAPL, AMZN rose and MSFT, META, GOOGL, NVDA fell on Tuesday.

SPY up 3.33 at 564.86, 36.4 million shares, below average volume

VIX up .07 at 13.19

QQQ up .19 at 496.34

UNH, CAT, BA, HD led the DJIA, 26 advancers, +10

MOH, BLDR, MTCH, STT led the SPX, 443 advancers 

WBD, ILMN, ODFL PCAR led the NDX, 77 advancers

Up:  IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ,

Down:  

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday, led by XLI, XLB and XLY.

The SPY MFC green line turned up at 94 and is short-term bullish.

Uptrend sectors:  XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLE,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE,

Down trend sectors: 

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

77 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

77 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  GOOGL, TSLA, TTD, VRSK, AAPL, REGN, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, NVDA, FANG, SNPS, VRTX, ISRG, CHTR, TMUS, EA, ROST, HON, MSFT, AVGO, LRCX, ZS, CTAS, PANW, ORLY, ADSK, MAR, TSLA, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BKR, GILD, INTU, DDOG, FANG, ARM, TEAM, CSX, INTC, ODFL, WDAY, AMD, ANSS, GFS, ON, TXN, MRVL, NXPI, MELI, ADI, AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, ROP, CDW, CSCO, CSGP, CSX, FAST, MDB, LIN, ADP, CMCSA, PAYX, QCOM, ABNB, DXCM, EXC, IDXX, MCHP, MNST, PCAR, PYPL, XEL,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9

ABNB, DXCM, EXC, IDXX, MCHP, MNST, PCAR, PYPL, XEL,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

CEG, CPRT, CRWD, FTNT,  

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SPX, NDX Close Higher...Energy, Financial, Industrials Lead Sectors...Earnings Season: GS, BLK, Contines Tuesday...

© 2024

The SPX +15.87 5,631, opened higher, rallied to a new all-time intraday high, before pulling back to close at its second highest closes and its third close above 5,600. The NDX +0.27% also closed higher.  IWM and DIA made all-time new high close on Monday. 

Fed’s Powell did an interview with David Rubenstein and the market pulled back during the discussion. 

Earnings season’s continues this week with 46 SPX companies reporting.  BAC, MS, PGR, PNC, SCHW, STT and PNC report BMO and JBHT and OMC report AMC on Tuesday.

First day reaction: Q1

Positive:  GS, BK, FAST= 3

Neutral: BLK = 1

Negative:  WFC, C, JPM = 3

NVDA -0.84, -0.62%, 128.44, opened higher, traded in a range and closed slightly lower. 

AVGO +1.35, +0.80%, 1,71.42, continued to consolidate in a channel for a seventh day.  Its 10 for 1 split took effect Monday, July 15. 

TSLA +4.41, +1.78%, opened higher, closed lower forming a potential shooting star candle.

Mega caps TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT rose and META, NVDA, AMZN fell on Monday.

SPY up 1.54 at 561.53, 40.5 million shares, below average volume

VIX up .66 at 13.12

QQQ up 1.33 at 496.15

CAT, GS, JPM, AXP led the DJIA, 16 advancers, -6

FTI, AXON, PAYC, APA led the SPX, 280 advancers 

CHTR, FAST, BKR, FANG led the NDX, 57 advancers

Up:  IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ,

Down:  

Six of eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by XLE, XLF and XLI

The SPY MFC green line is pointed slightly down at 93.4 and is short-term bullish.

Uptrend sectors:  XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLE,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE,

Down trend sectors: 

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up a little

57 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

72 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  GOOGL, TSLA, TTD, VRSK, AAPL, REGN, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, NVDA, FANG, SNPS, VRTX, ISRG, CHTR, TMUS, EA, ROST, HON, MSFT, AVGO, CRWD, LRCX, ZS, CTAS, PANW, ORLY, ADSK, MAR, TSLA, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BKR, GILD, INTU, DDOG, FANG, ARM, TEAM, CSX, INTC, ODFL, WDAY, AMD, ANSS, CPRT, GFS, ON, TXN, MRVL, NXPI, MELI, ADI, CEG, AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, ROP, CDW, CSCO, CSGP, CSX, FAST, MDB, LIN, ADP, CMCSA, FTNT, PAYX, QCOM,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

ADP, CMCSA, FTNT, PAYX, QCOM,   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

AZN, BIIB, CCEP, MNST, PDD, XEL,

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SPX, NDX Bounce after Thursday Pullback...Consumer Discretionary, Basic Materials, Technology Lead Sectors...Earnings Season is Here...

© 2024

The SPX +30.81 5,615, opened higher, rallied to a new all-time intraday before a 30-point selloff in the final 30 minutes resulted in its second close above 5,600. The NDX +0.59% also closed higher.   

Technology and semiconductor stocks rallied after a PPI report that missed forecast. Buyers were once again buying tech stocks notwithstanding the media’s myopic rotation narrative on Thursday.

Earnings season continues next week with 46 SPX companies reporting.  BLK and GS report on Monday BMO.

First day reaction: Q1

Positive:  BK, FAST= 2

Neutral:  = 0

Negative:  WFC, C, JPM = 3

NVDA +1.84, +1.44%, 129.24, opened higher, traded in a range and closed higher. 

AVGO -5.28, -0.31%, 1,700.67, continued to consolidate in a channel for a sixth day.  Its 10 for 1 split takes effect Monday, July 15. 

TSLA +7.20, +2.99%, opened lower, rallied at the open and trended up forming a piercing line candle.

Mega caps TSLA, NVDA, AAPL rose and MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META fell on Friday.

SPY up 3.51 at 559.99, 53.0 million shares, above average volume

VIX down .46 at 12.46

QQQ up 2.89 at 494.82

INTC, IBM, AMGN, HD led the DJIA, 22 advancers, +3

ENPH, BK, ACN, F led the SPX, 400 advancers 

ARM, ON, MELI, ZS led the NDX, 81 advancers

Up:  IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ,

Down:  

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLY, XLB and XLK.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed slightly down at 94.3 and is short-term bullish.

Uptrend sectors:  XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLE,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE,

Down trend sectors: 

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up a little

81 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

73 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  GOOGL, TSLA, TTD, VRSK, AAPL, REGN, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, NVDA, FANG, SNPS, VRTX, ISRG, CHTR, TMUS, EA, ROST, HON, MSFT, AVGO, CRWD, LRCX, ZS, CTAS, PANW, ORLY, ADSK, MAR, TSLA, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BKR, GILD, INTU, DDOG, FANG, ARM, TEAM, CSX, INTC, ODFL, WDAY, AMD, ANSS, CPRT, GFS, ON, TXN, MRVL, NXPI, MELI, ADI, BIIB, CEG, AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, ROP, CCEP, CDW, CSCO, CSGP, CSX, FAST, MDB, XEL, AZN, LIN, MNST, PDD,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

AZN, LIN, MNST,  PDD. 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

META,

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SPX, NDX Pullback After CPI Beats...Real Estate, Utilities, Basic Materials Lead Sectors...Small Caps, Housing stocks Rise...

© 2024

The SPX -49.37, 5,584, opened flat, traded in a range for 30 minutes, began to aggressively sell off and closed lower just below Wednesday’s low.  The NDX -2.24% also closed lower.  

Technology and semiconductor stocks moved lower, and small cap and housing stocks moved higher after the CPI report beat consensus: M/M -0.1% vs 0.1% est. and Y/Y 3.0% vs 3.1% est. Core M/M 0.1% vs 0.2% est. and Y/Y 3.3% vs 3.5% est.

This reflects expectations, actual results may vary.  Both the PCE and CPI results really highlight the Feds inability to articulate a non-ambiguous reality-based discussion of inflation’s path.

I saw these headlines today: “S&P 500 falls from record as investors rotate out of tech winners” and separately, “Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech.”

 What do these representations mean to you? 

Did investors really rotate out of tech winners? 

Let’s face it, some number of investors sell every day, so what constitutes a rotation?

The intriguing thing about the financial media is that they engage in this type of ambiguity every single day, and that it’s not viable for readers to know what they mean or even if their representation is accurate.

Here’s the numbers:

 

Stock	Today's	% of Shares	Shares
	Volume	Traded	Outstanding
AAPL	64,710,617	0.42%	15,334,082,000
MSFT	23,111,175	0.31%	7,432,305,794
NVDA	374,782,738	1.52%	24,598,341,970
GOOGL	25,625,784	0.21%	12,358,000,000
META	16,458,253	0.65%	2,536,534,191

 What this means is that 99%+ of AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, and META shares were NOT sold, and 98%+ of NVDA shares were NOT sold. 

  Does well less than 1% of outstanding shares constitute a rotate out?

PPI report Friday July 12, 8:30 am ET.

Earnings season unofficial start is Friday with JPM, C, WFC, BNY, FAST reporting BMO.

NVDA -7.51, -5.57%, 127.40, opened slightly higher, reversed after the open and closed lower.  Traded average volume.

AVGO -38.74, -2.22%, continued to consolidate in a channel for a fifth day.  Its 10 for 1 split takes effect Monday, July 15. 

TSLA -22.23, -8.44%, opened flat, rallied at the open and fell after it announced plans to delay RoboTaxi by two months.

Mega caps AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA, TSLA, fell on Thursday.

SPY down 4.84 at 556.48, 52.5 million shares, above average volume

VIX up .07 at 12.92

QQQ down 11.03 at 491.93

HD, MCD, MMM, DOW led the DJIA, 19 advancers, -9

SBAC, BLDR, MHK, DHI led the SPX, 394 advancers 

CSGP, MRNA, ILMN, DLTR led the NDX, 54 advancers

Up:  IWM, DIA,

Down:  SPY, QQQ,

Seven of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by XLRE, XLU and XLB.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 95.7 and is counter-trend defensive.

Uptrend sectors:  XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLE,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE,

Down trend sectors: 

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up a little

54 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

70 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  GOOGL, TSLA, TTD, VRSK, AAPL, REGN, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, NVDA, FANG, SNPS, VRTX, ISRG, CHTR, TMUS, EA, ROST, HON, META, MSFT, AVGO, CRWD, LRCX, ZS, CTAS, PANW, ORLY, ADSK, MAR, TSLA, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BKR, GILD, INTU, DDOG, FANG, ARM, TEAM, CSX, INTC, ODFL, WDAY, AMD, ANSS, CPRT, GFS, ON, TXN, MRVL, NXPI, MELI, ADI, BIIB, CEG, AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, ROP, CCEP, CDW, CSCO, CSGP, CSX, FAST, MDB, XEL,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

CCEP, CDW, CSCO, CSGP, CSX, FAST, MDB, XEL,  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

ABNB, COST, MCHP, MU, NFLX, QCOM,

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SPX Closes Above 5,600 for the First Time...SPX, NDX All-time Closing High...Technology, Basic Materials, Health Care lead all Sectors Higher...

© 2024

The SPX +56.93, 5,633, opened higher, traded in a range for 90 minutes, the trended up and closed above 5,600 for the first time, another all-time new closing high.  The NDX +1.09% also closed at a new all-time closing high.   

Powell gave his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services committee today which did appear to correlate with a 10-point pullback for about 60-minutes. 

Based on today’s price action we conclude that Powell’s comments were consistent with market expectations and that institutions are expecting tomorrow’s CPI report to be at least in line with the consensus forecast of Y/Y of 3.1% and Core Y/Y of 3.5%.  This reflects expectations, actual results may vary.

CPI report Thursday July 11, 8:30 am ET.

Earnings season unofficial start is Friday with JPM, C, WFC, BNY, FAST reporting BMO.

NVDA +3.53, +2.69%, 134.91, opened higher, traded in a range and closed higher.  Susquehanna reiterated its price target of $160 with a Positive rating.

AVGO +11.38, +0.66%, in a bull flag bounce continuation move.  Its 10 for 1 split takes effect Monday, July 15. 

Mega caps NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, META, TSLA, AMZN rose on Wednesday.

SPY up 5.50 at 561.32, 38.7 million shares, below average volume

VIX up .34 at 12.85

QQQ up 5.19 at 502.96

HD, TRV, MMM, MCD led the DJIA, 28 advancers, +17

ALB, KMX, QRVO, SWKS led the SPX, 403 advancers 

ILMN, WBA, ON, MU led the NDX, 73 advancers

Up:  DIA, QQQ, SPY, IWM,

Down:  

All eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by XLB, XLV and XLV.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 98.1 and is short-term bullish.

Uptrend sectors:  XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLE,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE,

Down trend sectors: 

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

73 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  GOOGL, TSLA, COST, TTD, VRSK, AAPL, REGN, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, NVDA, FANG, NFLX, SNPS, VRTX, ISRG, CHTR, TMUS, EA, ROST, HON, META, MSFT, AVGO, CRWD, LRCX, ZS, CTAS, PANW, ORLY, ADSK, MAR, TSLA, ADBE, ABNB, AMGN, AMZN, BKR, GILD, INTU, DDOG, FANG, ARM, TEAM, CSX, INTC, ODFL, WDAY, AMD, ANSS, CPRT, GFS, ON, TXN, MRVL, NXPI, MELI, ADI, BIIB, CEG, AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, MCHP, MU, QCOM, ROP,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

AEP, CTSH, GEHC, ILMN, MCHP, MU, QCOM, ROP, 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

FTNT, MDB,

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