NDX, SPX Close Higher...Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financial Lead Sectors...Mega Caps Lift NDX...

 

© 2025

SPX +9.08, 5,776, opened slightly higher, traded in a range and formed doji.  The SPX has risen six of the past eight days and has risen 271 points from its low on March 13. 

Breadth weakened as exchange and index advancers decreased. Net change advancing capital led in both the NDX and SPX.   The VIX -0.33 fell to its lowest level in over a month.

The DJI, 42,587 +0.01%, opened modestly higher, traded in a range and closed slightly higher.  NDX +0.53% opened higher, trended up and formed a white candle.

TSLA +9.75, +3.50%, continued a five-day rally, closed above its 30 DMA on above average volume.

Mega caps TSLA, GOOGL, AAPL, META, AMZN, BRK/B, MSFT rose and TSM, NVDA, AVGO fell on Tuesday. 

SPY up 1.38 at 575.46, 37.8 million shares, below average volume,

VIX down 0.33 at 17.15

QQQ up 2.80 at 493.46

DIS, AAPL, JPM, AMZN led the DJIA, 18 advancers, -5

IP, TSLA, FCX, FOXA, NFLX led the SPX, 216 advancers,

TTD, TSLA, CRWD, PANW, ZS led the NDX, 59 advancers

Up: QQQ, SPY, DIA,

Down: IWM,

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 30.7 and is short-term bullish. +4.5.

Six of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday, led by XLC, XLY and XLF. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

59 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

35 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, INTU, ORLY, FANG, AMD, MSTR, TTWO, WBD, ZS, CHTR, HON, CDNS, MELI, AXON, BKR, DASH, FAST, KLAC, NFLX, PLTR, CPRT, CRWD, PANW, ROP, TSLA,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

CPRT, CRWD, PANW, ROP, TSLA,  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

AMGN, ASML, BIIB, EXC, MU,

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NDX, SPX Close Higher as Breadth Strengthens...VIX Drops...Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Industrial Lead Sectors...TSLA Leads SPX, NDX...

© 2025

SPX +100.01, 5,767, opened higher, trended up and formed a large white candle.  The SPX has risen five of the last eight days and has risen 262 points from its low on March 13.

Breadth strengthened as exchange, index and mega cap advancers increased, net change advancing capital almost tripled, while VIX -1.80 fell to its lowest level in over a month.

The DJI, 42,583 +1.42%, opened higher and closed higher.  NDX +2.16% opened lower, reversed, formed a bullish engulfing candle.

TSLA +29.68, +11.93%, breakout 10-day resistance on above average volume.

Mega caps TSLA, META, AMZN, NVDA, TSM, GOOGL, AAPL, BRK/B, MSFT rose and AVGO fell on Monday. 

SPY up 10.10 at 574.08, 58.7 million shares, near average volume,

VIX down 1.80 at 17.48

QQQ up 9.82 at 490.66

HD, AMZN, NVDA, AXP led the DJIA, 23 advancers, +9

TSLA, UAL, AMD, DECK led the SPX, 420 advancers,

TSLA, MSTR, APP, PLTR led the NDX, 89 advancers

Up: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 26.2 and is short-term bullish. +2.2.

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by XLY, XLK and XLI. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

89 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

35 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, EXC, AMGN, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, INTU, ORLY, FANG, AMD, MSTR, TTWO, WBD, ZS, CHTR, HON, CDNS, MELI, ASML, AXON, BIIB, BKR, DASH, FAST, KLAC, MU, NFLX, PLTR,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 10

ASML, AXON, BIIB, BKR, DASH, FAST, KLAC, MU, NFLX, PLTR,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

AEP, CCEP,

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NDX, SPX Closed Higher, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Technology Led Sectors...TSLA Leads NDX...

 

© 2025

SPX +4.67, 5,667, opened lower, traded in a choppy range of 67 SPX points and formed bullish engulfing candle.  The SPX had traded lower all day until a final rally during the last 30 minutes Friday lifted the index to a closing gain.

In my view the word “uncertainty” was used too much this week for its ambiguity to hide the cognitive dissonance or confusion of the person using the word, rather than using it to promote thoughtful discussion of the future which is unknown every day, week, month and year. 

We regularly use a quote attributed to Yogi Berra, “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”  A super simple example was Friday.  Heathrow airport was closed due to a fire at a nearby electrical substation.  Nearly 1.000 flights were disrupted as planes had to land at alternate airports or return to the airport of origin. The SPX opened lower and traded in the red until the final half hour of the day.

Who told you on Thursday that Heathrow would be closed on Friday?  Who told you Friday morning with the SPX down 30 to 59 points that it would close up for the day?

No one.  Why?  Because the future is unknown, however it does deserve a thoughtful discussion.

Breadth was mixed as SPX advancers decreased, while NDX advancers increased.    VIX -.52 fell and mega cap advancers increased.  Net change advancing capital was higher.

The DJI, 41,985 +0.08%, opened lower, reversed and closed higher.  NDX +0.39% opened lower, reversed, formed a bullish engulfing candle.

TSLA +12.45, +5.27%, bounced to short-term resistance on above average volume.

Mega caps TSLA, AAPL, META, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO rose and TSM, NVDA, BRK/B fell on Friday. 

SPY up .18 at 563.98, 83.7 million shares, above average volume, declared 1.696 dividend

VIX down .52 at 19.28

QQQ up 1.58 at 480.80

BA, AAPL, MSFT, JPM led the DJIA, 14 advancers, +1

SMCI, TSLA, PLTR, DLTR, ULTA led the SPX, 152 advancers,

TSLA, PLTR, ODFL, APP, ABNB, AAPL led the NDX, 46 advancers

Up: QQQ, DIA, SPY,

Down: IWM,

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 24 and is short-term bullish. +0.4.

Three of eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLC, XLY and XLK. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Sideways

46 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, INTU, ORLY, CCEP, FANG, AMD, MSTR, TTWO, WBD, ZS, CHTR, HON, CDNS, MELI,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

CDNS, MELI,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 7

ASML, AZN, BIIB, BKR, FAST, MU, XEL,

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SPX, NDX Close Slightly Lower on Weaker Breadth...Utilities, Energy, Financial Led Sectors...

© 2025

SPX -12.20, 5,662, opened lower, traded in a choppy range of 78 SPX points forming an inside day and spinning top, closing higher than its open.

Thursday was a two-sided market as buyers and sellers evaluated Powell’s comments on stable economic hard data, two expected cuts in 2025 and the Fed ability to be patient and not make a policy move for now, unless economic data indicated a cut would be necessary to avoid a recession.  I reiterate my view that this was a very interesting press conference and worth listening to for insights into the Fed's thinking, rather than relying on second hand sources for their subjective spin.

Breadth weakened but was mixed as decliners led on both exchanges and index ETFs.  However, VIX -.10 was also volatile and traded in a range between 21.17 and 19.30, before closing at 19.81.  Mega caps split with five rising and five closing lower.  Net change advancing capital was mixed with more advancing capital in the NDX and DJI and higher declining capital in the SPX.

The DJI, 41,953 -0.03%, opened lower and traded in a range.  NDX -0.30% pulled back slightly on another trend pause day.

TSLA +0.40, +0.17%, closed slightly higher on average volume.

Mega caps TSM, NVDA, BRK/B, META, TSLA rose and MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, AVGO fell on Thursday. 

SPY down 1.64 at 565.49, 62.8 million shares, above average volume

VIX down .10 at 19.80

QQQ down 1.63 at 479.26

UNH, HON, GS, NVDA led the DJIA, 13 advancers, -8

DRI, JBL, CHTR, ALL led the SPX, 179 advancers,

PDD, APP, CHTR, DXCM, PLTR, DASH led the NDX, 32 advancers

Up:

Down: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 23.6 and is short-term bullish. +4.4.

Four of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by XLU, XLE and XLF. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Sideways

32 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

32 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, AZN, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, MU, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, ORLY, XEL, ASML, CCEP, FANG, AMD, MSTR, TTWO, WBD, ZS, BIIB, BKR, CHTR, HON,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

BIIB, BKR, CHTR, HON,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

ROP,

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NDX, SPX Closed Higher as Breadth Strengthened after the FOMC Announcement, Press Conference...Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrial Led Sectors...BA Led the DJI, SPX...

© 2025

SPX +60.63, 5,675, opened higher, traded in a choppy range before the 2 pm ET FOMC announcement.  As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged, and the market trended up after the announcement and during the 2:30 pm start press conference.

Powell referenced in the FOMC press conference that the actual economic or hard data was stable, and it was the soft data from surveys that depicted weakness.  In other words, reality was stable, and peoples’ opinions fluctuate.  He also referenced the concepts of signal and noise in his comments.  Overall, my view, was that this was a very interesting press conference and worth the listen.

Breadth strengthened as index ETFs rose and VIX -1.80 declined. Mega caps rose, and advancers were more than double decliners on both exchanges and in the broad indexes.  Net change advancing capital was multiples of declining capital.

The DJI, 41,964 +0.92%, opened higher and trended up.  NDX +1.30% pulled back resumed its rally after a one day pause.

TSLA +10.55, +4.68%, bounced and closed above Tuesday’s high.

Mega caps TSLA, AVGO, GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, BRK/B, META, TSM rose on Wednesday. 

SPY up 6.11 at 567.13, 66.2 million shares, above average volume

VIX down 1.80 at 19.90

QQQ up 6.35 at 480.89

BA, AXP, IBM, CVX led the DJIA, 21 advancers, +13

BA, SMCI, RCL, CZR led the SPX, 364 advancers,

MSTR, APP, AXON, WBD led the NDX, 79 advancers

Up: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 19.2 and is short-term bullish. +3.2.

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by XLY, XLE and XLI. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

29 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, AZN, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, MU, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, ORLY, XEL, ASML, CCEP, FANG, AMD, MSTR, ROP, TTWO, WBD, ZS,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 6

AMD, MSTR, ROP, TTWO, WBD, ZS,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

BIIB, GILD, KHC, LIN, TMUS,

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SPX, NDX Close Lower as Breadth Weakens, Mega Caps Fall...Energy, Health Care, Financial Lead Sectors...

© 2025

SPX -60.46, 5,614, opened lower after Housing Starts and Permits were better than expected and better than January’s report.  SPX pulled back in the morning and traded in a sideways channel during the afternoon closing above its low of the day.

Breadth weakened as index ETFs declined and VIX rose. Mega caps were weaker, decliners led advancers on both exchanges and the broad indexes.  Net change declining capital was significantly higher than advancing capital.

The DJI, 41,581 -0.62%, opened lower and trended down.  NDX -1.66% pulled back after a two-day rally and lagged the other index ETFs due to mega cap weakness.

INTC +.23, +0.90%, rose again after naming Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO last Thursday.

Mega caps BRK/B rose and AAPL, MSFT, TSM, AMZN, GOOGL, AVGO, NVDA, META, TSLA fell on Tuesday. 

SPY down 6.13 at 561.02, 66.0 million shares, above average volume

VIX up 1.19 at 21.70

QQQ down 8.23 at 474.54

VZ, CVX, UNH, JNJ led the DJIA, 8 advancers, -19

DFS, VTRS, MOS, CTRA led the SPX, 164 advancers,

FANG, MNST, CCEP, INTC led the NDX, 18 advancers

Up:  

Down: DIA, IWM, SPY, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line turned up to 16 and is short-term bullish. +2.3.

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday, led by XLE, XLV and XLF. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF,

Neutral sectors: XLV, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

18 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

28 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, AZN, GILD, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, MU, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, KHC, ORLY, XEL, ASML, BIIB, CCEP, LIN, TMUS, FANG,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

FANG,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

MELI, PEP, TTWO, ZS,

Add Comments here: 

SPX, NDX Close Higher...Real Estate, Energy and Consumer Staples Led all Sectors Higher...INTC Led NDX Again...

© 2025

SPX +36.18, 5,675, opened flat after monthly Retail Sales came in less than expected but positive and higher than January’s report.  SPX trended higher on Monday and closed higher.

Breadth strengthened moderately as index ETFs gained and volatility continued to fall. Mega caps were weaker and institutional buying was generally stronger than institutional selling with noticeable exceptions in TSLA and NVDA where decliner net change capital was noticeably higher.

The DJI, 41,841 +0.85%, opened higher and closed higher for a second day.  NDX +.55% opened higher but lagged the other index ETFs due to mega cap weakness.

INTC +1.64, +6.82%, rose for the third straight day after naming Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO last Thursday.

Mega caps BRK/B, TSM, AAPL, MSFT rose and META, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA fell on Monday. 

SPY up 4.34 at 567.15, 48.8 million shares, below average volume

VIX down 1.26 at 20.51

QQQ up 3.11 at 482.77

NKE, WMT, UNH, MMM led the DJIA, 27 advancers, +3

ENPH, INTC, AES, GEV, DPZ led the SPX, 455 advancers,

INTC, PDD, LULU, APP led the NDX, 89 advancers

Up: IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line turned up to 13.7 and is short-term bullish. +3.8.

All eleven sectors were higher on Monday, with led by XLK, XLE and XLF. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF, XLV,

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

89 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

31 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, AZN, GILD, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, MU, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, KHC, ORLY, XEL, ASML, BIIB, CCEP, LIN, MELI, PEP, TMUS, TTWO, ZS,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9

ASML, BIIB, CCEP, LIN, MELI, PEP, TMUS, TTWO, ZS,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Add Comments here:

NDX, SPX Close Higher as Breadth Strengthened as Government Funding Moves Forward to Avoid Shutdown...Technology, Energy, Financial Lead All Sectors Higher...NVDA Leads DJI...

© 2025

SPX +117.42, 5,638, opened higher after futures rose overnight after Schumer had indicated that voting for, in his opinion, a bad GOP government funding bill was better than allowing a government shutdown.  A short-lived pullback occurred at 10 am ET after a lower-than-expected Consumer Sentiment was released.  After a 25 minute pause the buying rally continued and SPX resumed its uptrend day into the close.

Breadth strengthened as exchange advancers, index advancers, number of advancing sectors, mega cap stocks and net change capital all rose significantly.  At least on Friday, the passage of government funding seemed to outweigh concerns over potential tariffs, trade war concerns and recession fears as institutional buying was stronger than institutional selling.

Technical analysis is based on probabilities, never certainties.  No mortal knows the future including Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and everyone else.  You don’t know the future, I don’t know the future and it’s best to realize that and acknowledge that trading is NOT about knowing the future, it’s about knowing the present. 

We can see the present by seeing the trend, support and resistance, price patterns, momentum, setups, bounce and breakout entry signals on the chart, and know that our rule-based signals have a positive edge.  If we take the signal and manage the trade with discipline according to our rules, we know, based on the probabilities our rules, that we will get our fair share of winners over a series of trades.

On Friday, both SPY and QQQ moved above the high of the low day in a channel bounce on heavy institutional buying and the VIX fell.  A valid bounce signal.  Each trader now makes a probability decision about what they will do with the present.

The DJI, 41,488, +1.65%, opened higher, trended up to close above the high of the low day.  NDX +2.49% opened higher and closed higher above the high of the low day.

SMCI: +3.09, +7.91%, opened higher and closed above its 30 DMA.

TSLA +9.30, +3.86%, opened higher, traded in a range, formed a white hammer candle and again closed above the high of the low day.

INTC +0.35, +1.48%, after naming on Thursday Lip-Bu Tan as new CEO.

ULTA +43.01, +13.68%, after reporting an EPS and Sales beat, Thursday after the close. 

CCI +9.69, +10.37%, gapped up on a positive EPS reaction and trended up on Friday after upgrades from Keybanc and Raymond James.

Mega caps NVDA, TSLA, META, MSFT, AVGO, AMZN, BRK/B, AAPL, GOOGL, TSM rose on Friday. 

SPY up 11.39 at 562.89, 62.5 million shares, above average volume

VIX down 2.89 at 21.77

QQQ up 11.32 at 479.66

NVDA, AXP, JPM, GS led the DJIA, 24 advancers, +14

ULTA, CCI, PLTR, SMCI, CE led the SPX, 453 advancers,

MSTR, PLTR, APP, CRWD led the NDX, 93 advancers

Up: QQQ, IWM, SPY, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down to 9.9 and is short-term bearish. –0.2.

All eleven sectors were higher on Friday, with led by XLK, XLE and XLF. 

Uptrend sectors: XLC, XLF, XLV,

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLY, XLI, XLU, XLRE, XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

93 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

22 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: CDW, ISRG, AEP, EXC, AMGN, AZN, GILD, VRTX, MDLZ, MNST, EA, KDP, PDD, MU, INTC, CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, KHC, ORLY, XEL,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

CMCSA, CSGP, FAST, INTU, KHC, ORLY, XEL,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

TMUS,

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