©
2025
SPX -91.21, 5,827. Opened lower following a better-than-expected
Jobs Report of 256K new jobs vs. 157K expected. A circumstance that is often referred to as “good
news is bad news” due to the short-term selling reaction in the market. Our view is that good economic growth is
good for families, the economy, and the country. However, retail traders should realize that
amongst the thousands of institutional traders, there are a variety of short-term
expectations that are traded with different short-term objectives.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market
strategist Scott Wren was quoted as saying, “Good news for the economy but not
for the markets, at least for now.
However, this unexpected gain relative to the consensus projection does
not change our view that the labor market is likely to decelerate further in
coming quarters.”
I continually point out in our iBullyBear Live Mentoring
Sessions, traders should remember the reasons economist,
strategist and other commentators speak of unexpected, in this case gain,
is because the forecasters/consensus models misestimated. The economy is the economy; therefore, it is the
forecasters models of the economy that failed to accurately forecast the actual
outcome. The fault lies with the
models, not the economy. Ironically, a small percentage (but enough to create a short-term supply/demand imbalance) of institutions trade short-term based on a perception discrepancy they create rather than
actual economic developments.
Breadth weakened significantly on Friday. Sellers controlled the first and last two
hours of trading on Friday. We’ll look
to Monday to see if it was a one-day reaction or signs of more selling to come.
The DJI, 41,938, closed -1.63% below short-term support and above three-month support.
NDX -1.57%,
closed below short-term support.
TSLA -0.20, -0.05%, traded in a
range, closed slightly lower and formed a hammer.
Mega caps META, TSM rose and TSLA, GOOGL, MSFT,
AMZN, BRK/B, AVGO, AAPL, NVDA fell on Friday.
SPY down 9.00 at 580.49, 72.1 million
shares, above average volume
VIX up 1.47 at 19.54,
VIX1D
down 2.26 at 16.41,
QQQ down 8.08 at 507.19
CVX, WMT, HD, BA led the DJIA, 4 advancers, -14
WBA,
CEG, DAL, BG led
the SPX, 67 advancers
CEG, FANG, ZS, AEP led the NDX, 13 advancers
Up:
Down: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM,
The SPY
MFC green line turned down at 31.6 and is short-term bearish. -1.7.
One of eleven sectors wase
higher on Friday, led by XLE.
Uptrend sectors: XLY, XLC, XLF,
XLI, XLK, XLU,
Neutral sectors: XLE,
Down trend sectors: XLRE, XLP, XLV, XLB,
The 6-month intermediate trend is up. The ten-day trend
is Down.
3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
13 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
17 NDX stocks are above their 30
DMA: MRVL, LULU, AVGO, GOOGL CEG, META, ARM, ASML, BKR, FANG,
KLAC, AMAT, CDW, GEHC, MU, ISRG, AZN,
NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
AZN,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
ADI,
AMZN, ANSS, CSCO, DXCM, EXC, IDXX, LRCX, NVDA, PDD, QCOM, ROST,
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