After the Close Review of Tuesday’s market action…IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA, $VIX, SQ, BA, CSCO,
INTC, JPM, MSFT, AMZN, MU, NFLX, CRM, ADBE, ATVI, EA, NVDA, STX, TXN, ADSK, PYPL,
NTAP, AMAT more great setups …11:08 pm PST
The DJIA, rose 9 points to 24,884, with strength in GS, CAT, TRV and DIS offset
by weakness in BA, UNH and JNJ.
Eight sectors were higher on Tuesday, led by materials XLB +1.01%, and
discretionary XLY +0.69%.
SPY up .69 at 272.88 on 79.2 million shares, 43%
below average volume.
Up on lower volume.
VIX down .37 at 18.36
Oil down .25 to 62.36
TLT up .11 at 118.14 on 5.4 million shares, 55% below
average volume. Up on lower volume.
INTC +1.93%, and CAT +1.74%, led
the DJIA, 14 advancers.
ALB +3.84%, UPS
+3.77%, and
TRIP +5.74%, led the SPX.
MELI +4.95%, LRCX
+4.65%, WDC +4.28%,
AMAT +4.10% and MYL +4.07% led the NDX.
Intermediate
and long term up trend intact. 3-day short term trend is up.
Up: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA
Down:
Breadth weakened
slightly on Tuesday, as advancers led 2,014
to 886 on the NYSE and led 1,883 to 1,001 on
the NASDAQ.
The SPY MFC green
line pointed
down at 52,
defensive.
Uptrend
sectors: XLK,
Neutral
sectors: XLY, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLE,
Down
trend sectors: XLP, XLRE, XLU,
Intermediate-term trending stocks: Many of these stocks have had significant
pull backs over the past month and it is appropriate to wait for the uptrend
to resume before considering entry… IBKR, ADBE, TAL, EA, EBAY, SHOP, LYV,
SQ, RACE, BA, NVDA, VRSN, ATVI, WB, RNG, V, CAT, MAR, ALGN, CCL, RCL, TRU, WYN,
PYPL, A, AABA, BABA, FCAU, FB, ANET, CBOE,
TTWO, WYNN, ISRG, AA, WUBA, EDU, CC, MU,
69 of 100 NDX stocks closed
higher on Tuesday.
61
NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.
NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
CERN, FOXA, MYL, PYPL,
ROST, SHPG,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
ALXN, HAS,
The
intermediate and long-term trends are still up. The two-month trend is sideways. The seven-day trend is sideways.
6-month Intermediate Term
Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up
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4 comments:
My guess is that the reason the market has reacted so strongly to the Cohen resignation is that he was viewed as the one person who was best in position to discourage the talk or implementation of tariffs. Why "this time may be different" than other vol spikes is the combined possibility of higher interest rates (the February hand-wringing) and multi-front trade wars could indeed have a negative effect on economic growth and therefore earnings. Something leads me to believe that tariff talk might be just the opening move a master chess player/master negotiator. A shot over the bow. There is little doubt that there is an uneven playing field in global trade, and a little wrestling in the mud might be harmful in the short run but beneficial long-term. Reagan put the dagger in the USSR with the bluff of "Star Wars" which up the ante to the point they had to fold. What better way to open trade discussions than with showing a little resolve?
Jeff's comments are interesting but we as traders need to watch the price action and big money moves. What better way than to watch Dave instructions and Master Chess Player moves.
I concur Don. I trade both very short-term and intermediate term (day trading of futures and Forex and also multi-day swing trades) and "invest" long-term. My point is that the market in the short-term may interpret the news as fundamentally bearish while long-term it may turn out to be quite positive for growth and earnings. I use situations like this to take advantage of higher options prices to sell puts at good entry points below the current market to collect good premium (unlike virtually all of 2017 when premium was not lucrative) and possibly establish long positions at good trade location. When the market reacts to what it considers "fundamental" news, but mis-reads it, excellent opportunity is created. Dave likes bull flags, and news events like this create really nice bull flags. If the panic is warranted because the fundamentals of the market will change, the bull flag will turning a major trend change. No evidence of that at this point, but money is to be made while others fret.
Jeff and Don...great comments and thank you for your insightful observations. I might add the other major vol spikes at a similar level to this one, 2010, 2011 and 2015 each had negative global macro-economic concerns associated with them including higher actual interest rates in 2010 and rising rates in 2015. The ninth anniversary of the bull market is Friday...Happy Anniversary! Dave
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