On expiration Friday the SPX closed at 1,243.91, a new high close, up +1.04 or +0.08%. The VIX closed at 16.11, its lowest close since April 20. The SPX is in a 5 day neutral range, so stay prepared for a potential roll over move to the downside. Next week is a holiday shortened week with market closed on Friday, Christmas Eve.
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Breadth weakened on Friday as advancers led decliners 1.25 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.11 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,682 1,396
Decliners 1,341 1,254
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Index Direction Confirmation
VIX Down Yes – SPX
SOX Up Yes – COMPQ
Leading stocks on Friday included ACN, ATI, TIE, AKS, STI, HANS, DECK, X, CF, ESI, JEC, FCX, A, MOS, IPI, TLT, GES, AKAM, RVBD, CSTR, ICE, WFMI, FFIV, URE, CMG, CREE, PCP, VECO, ATW, BA, AMD, GMCR, FAS, AGU, UNG, VMW, CAKE, SPG, USD, NYX, WLT, WHR, AMX, CRUS, CLF, HSY
Leading stocks on Friday included ACN, ATI, TIE, AKS, STI, HANS, DECK, X, CF, ESI, JEC, FCX, A, MOS, IPI, TLT, GES, AKAM, RVBD, CSTR, ICE, WFMI, FFIV, URE, CMG, CREE, PCP, VECO, ATW, BA, AMD, GMCR, FAS, AGU, UNG, VMW, CAKE, SPG, USD, NYX, WLT, WHR, AMX, CRUS, CLF, HSY
All four broad indexes and the TRAN and SOX closed above November’s old resistance now new support.
Interest rates pulled back on Friday and bonds rose. The Euro pulled back again and closed at 1.3186, 35 pips lower than last Friday’s close.
The SOX rose +0.67%, closing at 411.44 on Friday. The SOX is still a leading group at this time and is forming a bull flag pattern. The VIX closed down -1.28 at 16.11.
Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday with Financials XLF +0.19% leading all sectors.
With triple witching options expiration completed and the new January options cycle underway and over three weeks until the start of the next earnings season, short term traders need to continue to trade with the trend while at the same time aware of the a potential break of short term support on short term trades. Watch for a potential break of the low of the high day.
I see no evidence of big money exiting stocks in general with the continuation of the economic recovery. However the evidence is abundant that a rotation of stocks is underway. The upward momentum of leading NASDAQ stocks like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX and PCLN has slowed significantly with some downward momentum appearing over the last two weeks.
Other stocks like X, ATI, AKS, NUE, STLD, DECK, ACN, JEC, IPI, CLF and WHR have seen upward momentum increase. When comparing the charts of these stocks it is easy to see which stocks big money is selling and which stocks big money is accumulating.
The annual changes to the NDX 100 will take effect on Monday, December 20 following options expiration on Friday. Joining NFLX in the NDX 100 will be AKAM, CTRP, DLTR, FFIV, MU and WFMI.
These seven stocks will be deleted from the NDX: CTAS, DISH, FWLT, HOLX, JBHT LOGI and PDCO.
Moves on Friday
Continuation – X, AKS, NUE, STLD, HSY, IPI, WHR, ACN, WFMI, NTRI, A, DHR
Resistance Breakout – ATI, NDAQ
Bull Flag Bounce – ATI, STI, RVBD, FFIV, VMW, WLT, AGU, AKAM, CAKE, NYX, HAS, C, CF, CLF, FCX, JEC
MACD Divergence Bounce – LVS
Bear Flag Break – GOOG
Break of Support – BIDU, UNG
Setup Charts to Watch
Bull Flag Setups – CAT, TBT, ATW, CREE, SINA, BYI, SNDK, NETL, GME, USD, UNP, AMD, CRUS, XLF, FAS, WFC, BAC, GS, PNC, ZION, CSTR, DE, F, FLS, RMBS, SLB, SWK
Horizontal Breakout – WLT, JEC, GES, GR, WYNN, DOW
MACD Divergence – LDK, TSL, JASO, LVS
Bear Flag Setups – NFLX, LXK, CMG
Horizontal Support Breakout – SKX
Continue to trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.
SPX
Resistance: 1,241, 1,256
Support: 1,220, 1,209, 1,200
Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance. Friday was an entry signal for many stocks.
Enter bearish trades on a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.
The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.
AAPL -0.64 –spinning top at resistance
AMZN -0.46 – spinning top at mid channel
NFLX -1.63 – spinning top in potential bear flag
QCOM -0.19 – spinning top close above resistance
GOOG -0.91 – doji in four day pull back
BIDU +0.43 – spinning top
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ORCL, CEPH, EXPE, WCRX, CERN, CTSH, VRTX, DELL, MU, AMAT, AKAM, RIMM, MRVL, WFMI and FLIR.
Stocks weaker than the NDX: EXPD, EBAY, SYMC, GILD, FSLR, ROST, XLNX, PCAR, BRCM, VMED, JBHT, DISH, CMCSA, MXIM and BMC.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
SINA, CAKE, CAM, WLT, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, DECK, GR, RVBD, WFMI, BYI, MHS, NETL, FFIV, CAT, X, CREE, GES, HAS, CLF, CRM, INFA, VMW, SNDK, CRUS, FCX, FDX, AKS, A, AMD, DHR, DOW, FLS, GME, ICE, PNC, TBT, UCO, DE, FAS, JEC, STI, SWK, WHR, ZION, ACN, BAC, NYX, ESI, IPI, HSY, NTRI, ATI, CF, PCP
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
AGU, HANS, HLF, TIE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
GS, UNP
Staying Below 30 DMA
MA, AIV, NTRI, SKX, V, CSTR, NFLX, PCLN, UNG, VECO, ARUN, CMG, RMBS, SOHU, AKAM, GMCR, MCD, SPG, SWN, URE, AMX, LVS, POT, UAL, FAZ, TLT, MOS, NTES, LDK, CHL, TSL, BA, LXK, DLR
MA, AIV, NTRI, SKX, V, CSTR, NFLX, PCLN, UNG, VECO, ARUN, CMG, RMBS, SOHU, AKAM, GMCR, MCD, SPG, SWN, URE, AMX, LVS, POT, UAL, FAZ, TLT, MOS, NTES, LDK, CHL, TSL, BA, LXK, DLR
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
1 comment:
grind and grind and grind
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