Wednesday, July 21, 2010

SPX Opens Higher and Closes Lower After Bernanke Speaks...

Dave is still traveling...

Apparently big traders sold the market after Bernanke told Congress that the recovery was fragile but not weak enough to require additional Fed intervention at this time and he felt the odds were that the economy would not slip into a double dip recession.  At the same time he indicated the Fed would stand ready to consider additional action if the economy weakened further.

So let's reason this out...
1.  Big Traders think Bernanke doesn't know what he is talking about even though he may have access to data that they may not see or hear...
2.  Big Traders are throwing a tantrum that Bernanke did not give them more stimulus even though Bernanke's opinion was that it was unnecessary at this time...
3.  Big Traders are trying to sucker less knowledgeable traders and investors into selling to them at lower prices than the Big Traders shorted at, so the Big Traders can make another big profit at the expense of less experienced traders...
4.  You choose another explanation of what you think is really going on here...

Bernanke tells us the obvious, the recover is fragile, and not so weak that additional Fed action is required at this time and the odds don't favor a double dip recession...sounds pretty good to me relatively speaking...

Warren  Buffett has been atrributed with saying if you're in a card game and you don't know who the sucker is, then you're the sucker...

The economy is strong enough NOT to require Fed action, Big Traders sell off...No...they wouldn't be trying to sucker somebody in, would they?

The SPX formed a higher low and a higher high while closing lower...look at May 26, June 9 and the following trading day in both instances...been there, done that?

Dave's InsightWhatever you do I suggest you follow your rules...

14 comments:

Bob Almasi said...

Dave,

You bringing saneness to this insane market. Thanks for posting even when you are on holidays and traveling. You are truly one of a kind!

Reg said...

Thanks Dave, Enjoy Japan and Family.
Reg

Judy said...

Thanks Dave for helping me to stop listening to the noise makers. When looking at the weekly candles some of the stronger charts looks like they have potential energy to bounce!!! I sure like your posts!
Judy

Anonymous said...

Ditto above, Dave. Thank you!
Scott L of Nashville

Prasanna said...

Thankyou Dave. With your tutelage actually I am thinking like my teacher and mentor. Enjoy your time with the grand child.

Best regards

Anonymous said...

Dave:
Thanks much:
Appreciate the Buffet comment. Great!!!
Robert
CANI-212

Vahid said...

Happy travels, and thanks a bunch for the insight. Loved the buffet quote :-)

Vahid

Anonymous said...

Big sellers starting selling at the open then consolidated and resumed selling after B. spoke.
I agree with all of your comments except that it certainly looked to me like big selling started at the open and did not wait for B.

Anonymous said...

Professor Johnson: That was dead-on regarding Big Money! Thank you for all you do! Have a great vacation and you and your Wife enjoy that new grandson!
B.Hesker

Lisa Couturier said...

Dave, You've heard it before but please know that your dedication to your students (groupies!) is greatly appreciated! Have a great vacation with your family. Looking forward to your return.

Jim.QQQ said...

I'll add Buffett quote to my favorite DJ one liners:

- Think like MCP, multiple moves ahead
- Buy/sell when supposed to
- don't trade thoughts
- wait for market to move/confirmation
- T is friend, (HH/HL) or (LH/LL)
- ...know who the sucker is, else it's you

J.Sparks said...

I really like how business networks are like me. For example when the market looks bad and I think it's going to drop (contrary to Dave's thoughts), everybody that is interviewed (talking heads) is completely bearish. Yet, when we have a day like today, wow, everyone says, "Hey, no problem, Bernanke is just being cautious...economic recovery is right around the corner." Just another reason to trade your rules and not the noise.

Anonymous said...

Wow, I did not know that Jordan Sparks was a trader and DJ student!

Maybe Dave will ask you to sing a song in a trading room when he gets back.

Unknown said...

One of your best posts ever!

Thanks Dave!