Friday, June 19, 2009

AAPL, Nasdaq Rise...SPX, Dow Falters...

DJIA - 15.87, -0.19% SP500 + 2.86, +0.31% NASDAQ Comp. + 19.75, +1.09% Russell 2000 + 3.24, +0.64% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,862 1,590 Declining 1,109 1,105 Oil $69.55 -$1.82 Gold $935.60 +$1.60 SOX 264.47 +3.20 VIX 29.99 -2.04 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.26%...XLK +0.78%...XLY +0.39% Weakest Sectors: XLU -2.31%...XLP -1.76%...XLE -1.50% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Financials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +0.31%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.26%: IVZ, NTRS, KEY, SPG, MET, PRU, STT, SCHW, RF, BAC, TROW, JPM, BK, AXP, ICE, WFC, AOC, AFL, PNC, C and ETFs UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.78% include: DELL, YHOO, AAPL, MSFT, HPQ, ADBE, ORCL, EMC, QCOM, TXN, GOOG, AMAT, SYMC, EBAY, INTC and ADP. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY, XLE Sideways: XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 920 - 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 903 = horizontal & 200 DMA 897 = 50 DMA 875 = horizontal AAPL and the Nasdaq moved higher on Friday a reversal from Thursday’s weakness, while the SPX and DJIA could not maintain the upward momentum from their support bounce on Thursday. The SPX weekly trading range expanded from 29 to 38 points hitting a high of 942 and a low 903 and closing in the middle at 921. The Nasdaq had the stronger weekly move closing at 1,827 just 11 points below its weekly high as can been seen in the weekly line chart. (click image to enlarge) Technically the market continues in a seven week sideways trading range. Positives are: Weaker VIX, Stronger SOX, A support bounce in the Nasdaq which looks more like an uptrend than the SPX and XLF the strongest sector for the second straight day. Strong volume in leading stocks AAPL, MSFT, ORCL and QCOM Negatives are: Weaker DJIA and SPX Only four sectors rising Inability for the SPX to break resistance This market appears to becoming more selective so continue to focus on strong trending stocks. The pending Fed announcement on Wednesday may keep the broader market in a narrow range for the first part of the week. The Nasdaq benefited from strong Friday moves in AAPL, MSFT, ADBE, ORCL, FSLR, AMZN, QCOM, CELG, GOOG, BIDU, DTV and SYMC. RIMM which reported earnings Thursday evening was down 4.92% on Friday. Educational stocks which have been stronger over the past week exhibited some weakness on Friday as these stocks moved to resistance levels. Watch APEI, APOL, CPLA, DV, ESI, CECO, COCO, EDU and STRA for potential rollover or breakout on Monday. Looking into the upcoming week: Tuesday – Existing Home Sales expected to rise to 4.85 M Wednesday – Durable Goods are expected to drop -0.5% and New Home Sales rise to 365K, at 2:15 pm ET FOMC announcement Thursday – Jobless Claims slight rise to 613K and GDP flat at -5.7% Friday – Consumer Sentiment slight rise to 69.7 Index Commentary The DJIA moved formed a spinning top…three month chart target 10,340…volume was an above average 528 million shares, highest volume since April 17 …closed above its 50 DMA and at its 30 DMA. The SPX formed a spinning top …3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a white spinning top…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a black spinning top…closed a fraction below its 20 DMA….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 30, 50 and 200 DMA. At the Open on Friday SPY – black spinning top -0.19% USD – bullish harami +2.25% FAS – white spinning top confirm bullish harami +4.39% FAZ – black spinning top -4.66% UNG – black spinning top -0.85% AAPL – white candle following inverted hammer +2.65% AMZN – white spinning top +1.67% BIDU – white spinning top +1.21% DECK – white spinning top +2.63% GES – white spinning top support bounce +2.44% JOYG – doji +1.36% SYNA – white candle following doji +1.78% CTSH – black spinning top +0.47% FLS – black candle at support did not confirm hammer -1.92% NFLX – shooting star +0.68% MHS – dark cloud cover -1.50% DDS – black spinning top +0.11% WYNN – bullish harami +3.54% JOSB – black candle -2.60% APOL – dark cloud cover -1.12% GS – doji +0.03% Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, ICE, VPRT, BAP, GMCR, GR, HDB, K, PCLN, VAR, PPD, FLS, NIHD, JOYG, DV, AXYS, CPLA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, AAPL, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC, DECK, CPLA, JEC, MYGN, AMZN, DV, STRA, BLUD, GILD, JW.A, ACN, APEI, BIIB, PSYS, CBST, ESRX, JCOM, MHS, NFLX, SNHY, ATW, BYI, HLF, SLGN Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 AFAM Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 CHL, ESI, PCP Staying Below 30 DMA FAZ, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, AMX, ATW, BYI, CAM, CLB, GES, MOS, PWR, SLGN, CTSH, EBAY, FAS, MON, PCP, RCI, SNA, TDG, TRLG, URE, UYG, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WCG, WMT, DLB, JOSB, NTLS, HANS, AMED, PETS, ALGT, GME, GPRO, BKC Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Laney said...

We really depend on your posts, to enhance and develop our trading, Dave- We don't know what we'd do with out you!!
PS
We are all moved to OR, and actually beginning to feel human again! We will see you at your ATA TR tomorrow night!!

Laney