Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Stocks Rise and Sell Off

DJIA - 121.70, -1.51% SP500 - 6.28, -0.75% NASDAQ Comp. - 1.25, -0.08% Russell 2000 - 4.42, -0.98% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,674 1,092 Declining 2,082 1,650 Oil $40.32 -$0.46 Gold $901.60 +$9.60 SOX 212.75 +1.92 VIX 43.85 +0.79 The VIX moved up confirming the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.83%...XLE +0.94%...XLU +0.75% Weakest Sectors: XLP -2.72%...XLY -2.19%...XLF -1.10% Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLU, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK Down Trending: XLF Stocks rose to short-term resistance near mid-day when sellers took over and prices fell. The broad indices finished lower on Wednesday. DIS and KFT weighed on the Dow after releasing earnings below expectations. Consumer Staples XLP was the weakest sector. After the close CSCO released earnings above expectations but gave lower guidance for the current quarter and year. CSCO was down 69 cents in after-hours trading. V reported better than expected earnings after the close and rose 3.87 or 7.88% in after-hours trading. MA reports earnings BMO Thursday morning. AMZN cools off after rising 27 % as it formed a three white soldiers candle pattern…watch for a potential entry from an earnings flag pattern. . Index Commentary The DJIA formed a large black candle closing near its low of the day. The SPX after rising early pulled back and closed near Tuesday’s S1 level. The Nasdaq also rose early and formed a potential shooting star closing near Tuesday’s close. The RUT gave back all of Tuesday’s modest gains in forming a shooting star like black candle. Stock Commentary Rail stocks BNI, CSX and UNP moved higher and pulled back at horizontal resistance NSC broke the high of the low day Steel stocks STLD, NUE and SCHN moved higher and pulled back at horizontal resistance X confirmed Tuesday’s bullish harami and broke the high of the low day Semiconductor stocks NVLS, XLNX, ALTR still near the high of the low day MRVL moved up 19 cents at resistance…potential breakout…new high close NSM, LLTC moved to horizontal resistance TXN moved higher Coal stocks KOL, BTU, JRCC CNX and FCL formed small spinning tops MEE moved lower after reporting earnings below estimates Tuesday evening WLT is still near the high of the low day Earnings Wednesday, Feb 4 Symbol Earnings Estimate AGN +0.76 beat +0.73 BCO +0.83 beat +0.57 CLX +0.62 beat +0.57 ITT +0.82 beat +0.77 KFT +0.43 below +0.44 NOV +1.44 beat +1.33 RL +1.05 beat +0.86 SNA +1.01 beat +1.00 PM +0.71 beat +0.62 AKAM +0.44 beat +0.40 ATW +1.22 beat +1.15 CSCO +0.32 beat 0.30 EXBD +0.50 below +0.57 DLB +0.56 beat +0.43 EOG +0.74 below +1.04 FMC +1.02 beat +0.86 NVLS -0.21 below -0.17 PRU -2.69 below -1.19 PHM -1.33 below – 0.71 SPTN +0.40 beat +0.39 SUN +2.69 beat +2.15 V +0.78 beat +0.66 Numbers exclude non-recurring items Thu Feb 5 BMO – ANR, CAH, CI, DO, EL, FLIR, K, MA, MCO, NCR AMC – AMX, COHU, HIG, MCRS, NFS, PENS, SRCL, VRSN Fri Feb 6 BMO – BIIB Learn the Discipline We entered positions on AMED and CPLA on Wednesday. Our HLF limit order did not fill. So we now have four positions including ESRX and GME entered on Tuesday. FSLR, PCLN and RBN crossed above their 30 DMA on Wednesday. We will look to enter positions here on Thursday based on market conditions. Of the original $152,000 in the model portfolio, approximately $8,000 is invested. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks: Holding Above 30 DMA NFLX, BDX, ESI, JW.A, MYGN, CLB, RIMM, SYNA, BLUD, APEI, HANS, STRA, WRC, GMCR, PCP, GES, GME, MHS, SWN, MOS, PWR, TDG, AAPL, BIIB, GPRO, GXDX, JCOM, WCG, VAR, BIDU, GILD, RCI, VPRT, FLS, ESRX, SLGN, ATW, CPLA, CTSH, HLF Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 FSLR, PCLN, RBN Moving Below 30 DMA = 6 AMED, DLTR, DV, K, PPD, PSYS Staying Below 30 DMA CAM, BKC, JOSB, ORCL, PCR, BYI, CSCO, MUR, WMS, DLB, JEC, PETS, NTLS, BAP, HDB, AMX, CBST, DECK, AFAM, CHL, EZPW, WAB, ALGT, ICE, SPTN, PRGO, AXYS Wednesday’s Action Moving Up: GS, FSLR, POT, MOS, MON, CF, SOHU, MS, AEM, DRYS, AGU, X, SCHN, PCLN, SINA, CLF, IPI, V, KMT, GDX, Moving Down: STRA, ADM, MEE, AFAM, Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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