©
2024
This
was a very atypical week
with Wednesday’s unusually large selloff reaction to both the FOMC announcement
and press conference, followed by Thursday evening’s selloff and Friday’s
unusually large and very broad rally, and the VIX and VIX1D’s large
gain on Wednesday and large drop on Friday. The narrative directed towards the Fed and
Chairman Powell also seemed quite negative after the 25-bps cut on Wednesday
and the market traded as if it was positively surprised by the better than
consensus PCE report Friday morning.
Notwithstanding
the atypical moves in the indices and volatility and the tone of the narrative
towards the Fed, it appears that the broad market uptrend is still intact
and will survive the sharp counter-trend reaction of this week.
SPX +63.77, 5,930, opened
lower, following a selloff in the futures market Thursday evening after the
House failed to pass a temporary spending bill and concern over a PCE inflation
report Friday before the open. Friday
8:30 am the PCE report was 0.1% lower in each category (better
than expected) and the futures rallied from its overnight low, but still
negative on the open. The rally continued
after the open and gained 114 SPX points before finding sellers
near R1 of Wednesday’s large red candle.
Congress passed a spending bill Friday evening after
the market closed. Friday’s falling VIX
down 5.73, seemed to
reflect the market’s confidence that a spending plan would be passed.
The DJI, 42,840, closed higher for a second day as GS
and UNH gained the most points in the price weighted index. The RUT closed higher.
NDX +0.85% closed
higher forming a 4-day bull flag pattern and a BO test.
TSLA -15.11, -3.46%, opened
lower, formed an inverted hammer candle in a 3-day bull flag pattern.
PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX before the open on
Monday, Dec. 23 and SMCI, MRNA and ILMN will be removed.
LII, APO and
WDAY will be added to
the SPX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and CTLT, QRVO
and AMTM will be removed.
Mega caps NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AVGO, BRK/B, AMZN rose, and MSFT, META, TSLA fell on Friday.
SPY up 7.01 at 591.15, ex-dividend
1.966, 125.7 million shares, above average volume,
VIX down 5.73 at 18.36,
VIX1D
down 5.94 at 17.37, post FOMC.
QQQ up 4.49 at 518.66
NVDA, UNH, CRM, GS led the DJIA, 23 advancers, +5
ENPH,
PLTR, MTCH, CCL, NCLH led the SPX, 444 advancers
APP, DXCM, ABNB, MU led the NDX, 79 advancers
Up: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,
Down:
The SPY
MFC green line is pointed down at 53.8 and is counter-trend defensive.
-10.3.
All
eleven sectors
were higher on Friday, led by XLRE, XLU and XLK.
Uptrend sectors: XLY, XLC,
XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,
Neutral sectors: XLE,
Down trend sectors: XLB, XLV,
The 6-month intermediate trend is up. The ten-day trend
is down.
3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
18 NDX stocks are above their 30
DMA: MRVL, NFLX, TSLA, WBD, AMZN, DDOG, LULU, AAPL, MSFT, ASML, WDAY,
AVGO, GOOGL CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,
NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
META,
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