On Tuesday Nov 22 when the SPX looked much different than it does today this question and answer appears in the comment section of Chart Signals…
Hi Dave
Since the market has tested 1188+, should the year-end rally target be revised down from 1369?
Maggi
Since the market has tested 1188+, should the year-end rally target be revised down from 1369?
Maggi
Maggi,
No need to revise.
A breakout chart target is a chart target. Not all chart targets are reached and not all are achieved within the time frame estimated by the time of the prior pattern.
Interestingly enough the SPX moved 200 points from Oct 4 to Oct 27, so if a higher low is reached this week and a similar 200 point move occurs in December, the SPX 1,363 chart target is still achievable within the 10 week estimate.
As traders we should just trade the chart whatever it presents us whether chart targets are reached or not.
Dave
No need to revise.
A breakout chart target is a chart target. Not all chart targets are reached and not all are achieved within the time frame estimated by the time of the prior pattern.
Interestingly enough the SPX moved 200 points from Oct 4 to Oct 27, so if a higher low is reached this week and a similar 200 point move occurs in December, the SPX 1,363 chart target is still achievable within the 10 week estimate.
As traders we should just trade the chart whatever it presents us whether chart targets are reached or not.
Dave
Now I suspect that among the few people who take the time to read the comments section there may have been someone who thought, “now that’s absurd, Dave has lost it, there is no way the SPX can rise another 200 points and not only that can’t he see the market is going down?”
So here we are a week later and we see that the SPX did make a higher low last week and the SPX has risen 79 points in three days and its not even December yet.
How can Dave be so confident and say what at the moment seems so absurd and within a few days it makes perfectly good sense and is so realistic?
Real world experience viewing approximately 1.6 million charts over the past 20+ years so that he gets it. He actually gets it.
“Every day there are only Chart Signals. We either take them or we don’t.” Dave Johnson
You don’t know and I don’t know if the 1,363 SPX chart target will be achieved within the 10 weeks estimated by the channel pattern…but take a moment and state in the comment section at the bottom today’s post and let Chart Signals know if you think 1,363 which is now ONLY 125 points away is realistic within the remaining four weeks. Thank you!
I would really like to know what you think! Post your comment Now!
.
Dave will be on TastyTrade.com this morning at 9 am CST.
In a clear and obvious reaction to the news that Burger King the second largest hamburger chain introduced new thicker fries, slightly wider than a number 2 pencil with lower sodium and a crisper coating that keeps them hotter longer, ES and NQ stock futures are soaring this morning…Greece gets $10.7 billion rescue loan from Eurozone…
BMO – ES +34.00 and NQ +57.75 futures are crashing up 15 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a gap higher open…volume is heavy for pre-market with a most stocks quoting higher…Financial stocks, XLF is up 48 cents on 3,022,600 shares in pre-market at this time…
Last night ES futures were down over 12 points and this morning up 35, one of the largest overnight turnarounds in recent months…once again reiterating what I have been teaching for a long time…that low liquidity, low volume overnight trading does not predict the next morning’s open...at least not more than about 50% of the time…
TLT is down -$1.55 and the Euro is up 166 pips in overnight trading…
NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM are quoting higher…
Dave’s Insight for Wednesday: higher Euro…lower bonds… Financials huge jump…setting up a crash up open …Most stocks are significantly higher in pre-market …Look for a major continuation of the support bounce that started Monday…Follow YOUR rules for entry, exits and stops...TRADE THE TREND…
Chart Signals will be watching XLF, TNX and VIX today as key factors in any SPX move…
SPX
Resistance: 1,205, 1,216, 1,230, 1,249
Support: 1,177, 1,160, 1,146
Quoting Down – FAZ, TLT
Quoting Up – CMG, FAS, CF, DECK, CRM, ICE, HUM, FFIV, CAT, GS, SINA, IBM, VMW, NKE,UNP, WLT, ATI, DE, TPX, SOHU, SLB, FCX, URE, MOS, TIF, COH, HLF, GES, LVS, DLR, MCP, SNDK, C, X, POT, SWK, RCL, HAL, V, WDC, LNKD, ANR, ANF, DOW, A, VECO, SLW, UCO, CREE, CDE, CHL, ARUN, SWN, RVBD, CSTR, ZION, CRUS, SMH,TSLA, GRPN, STI, PCX, SWKS, JDSU, AKS, JNPR, CROX, TBT,NVDA, CIEN, TSL, BAC, F, ENTR, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN, QCOM, WYNN, JOYG, CTXS, BIIB, FSLR, CTSH, SHLD, GMCR, CERN
Ha ha ha ha!!1 Dave you're killing me! Hee hee hee!
ReplyDeleteFrancis Vancouver
I orginally thought markets up in anticipation of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts earnings report!!
dave you are funny, as always.
ReplyDeleteThe "Burger King Effect"--is that a new technical pattern? :) Thanks for the dose of humor Dave.
ReplyDeleteBrian
Rarely do we see such an "obvious" predictor of market action. Anyone could have seen this comming. CAUTION!! ... markets may pull back over "concerns" that BK fries are not as large and crispy as was initially expected. Trade YOUR Rules!! ;-)
ReplyDeleteBrian and Steven,
ReplyDeleteThanks for seeing clearly through the smoke to actually get it. :)
Dave
EUR/USD breaks falling resistance trendline !!!
ReplyDeleteDave,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like about a 9% move to get to the target in 4 weeks. I can see several times on the chart where that has happened.
Seems entirely possible to me.
Don
Plenty of time to reach 1363. Would love to see a pull-back to a higher low along the way for new opportunities in my watchlist! Thanks Dave.
ReplyDeleteBrian
Dave, I heard a financial news story last night on the radio during my commute home about BK Fries and the Standard and Poors downgrade of the Banks predicting a very bad day Wednesday. I thought to myself, "I can't wait to see what Dave has to say..."
ReplyDeleteYour morning BK Fries confirmation of Futures pointing higher was a classic... Three days into this week and we already see an +88pt move up on SPX (reminds me of that week back in Mar 9, 2009.) Plus today we broke through 3 of your 4 identified resistance levels.
I love the education on trading the charts and your blog's title reinforces that we are to remain focused on -- not our thoughts, not the talking heads, but on the signals offered by the charts.
Last week was Thanksgiving break and our biological and adopted children all had memorable words about why they are thankful.
When if comes to being a child in my financial education, I'm frequently giving thanks for your dedication to helping all of us grow in wisdom!
Best to you Dave Johnson!
-Jim
We have about 5 weeks remaining in that chart target and time frame; i know it is possible to achieve. I also know that in the course of the next 5 weeks we will go up some and down some, so I will trade what the charts are telling me according to my rules and if the target is hit then it's hit and if it's not then it's not. All i know is right now i see uptrend continuation coming off this higher low.
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything Dave!
I don't "know" if SPX 1363 will be acheived by year end. but it is a
ReplyDeletevalid target.
I do "know" you were great on tastytrade this morning!!!
I also know that the technical analysis skills I have leaned from you over the years, combined with the trading fundamentals and strategies I have learned from Tom and Tony @ tastytrade have me on my way to becoming a great trader!
thank you,
A grateful student / trader
You BK fries got us cheering more than gain in our long positions in my account. Thank you for that. With so many gaps in every single stock in my watch list it will be interesting to learn how new entries hold below today's open.
ReplyDeletebreak of resistance certainly showed end of prior trend and it looks going for the next target, till new information changes chart trend.
with your teachings, love to, as you said about 3 months ago, "stay with you not without you" in improving decision making process.
regards - vishal
Dave,
ReplyDeleteThe chart target indicated still seems realistic. Whether it is acheived or no, who knows. Your technical analysis has shown to be correct over and over again countless numbers of times just in the time that I have followed your teaching on Chart Signals. Thank You!
Dave,
ReplyDeleteReally liked the Burger King index and all this time I have been taught that news doesn't matter. But everyone loves frys.
I don't know what to say, you asked me to say what I think. But that is another thing I have been taught not to do. This one I have not overcome yet, the number one problem with my trading.
I do see a pullback in May 2010 that found support the beginning of July that moved up over 300 points by Feb 2011. Everyone was saying then the market was not going higher that is was making a head and shoulders topping pattern. QE2 happened in the middle of that move higher. Today history seems to be repeating itself. Today was not QE3 but maybe it was, the FED is now backstopping the world's financial markets so yes it is very possible that in the next four weeks the SPX reaches 1363.
Three years and I am still a beginning trader. Dave, I listen and read your blog and I am sure someday I will be a good trader and a darn good looking one!
Thank you.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteWe definitely agree that the SPX target of 1363 is within reach by December 31st -- especially if the vix can stay under 30.
We chuckled about your post all day today. Are you going to visit BK on December 16th for the free fries giveaway? We think that all us grateful traders should go to BK and thank them for the great market stimulous today!
Jamee & Sue
Never any doubt, Dave! But it was good this week to see the pricing action start behaving per your expectation. Last week was generally offered as gloom and doom by largely all but you, so your analysis was certainly a guiding light.
ReplyDeleteGreat post on burger king.
ReplyDelete